01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bradford City to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
EFL League OnePirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent12°8,7 mm14 km/h
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Burton AlbionPossession controlvs
Bradford CityPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Bradford City (52%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.78 (+7 %)
Burton Albion vs Bradford City · EFL League One
1 · Burton Albion 21%X 27%52% Bradford City · 2
21%
27%
52%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burton Albion vs Bradford City (EFL League One, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Burton Albion win 21%, draw 27%, Bradford City win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Burton Albion 0.93, Bradford City 1.36. Most likely score: 0-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Burton Albion or draw 48%, Bradford City or draw 79%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Burton Albion – Bradford City
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The numbers suggest a tight, controlled affair at the Pirelli Stadium, with both Burton Albion and Bradford City focusing on possession to dictate play. Despite Burton's knack for controlling the ball, their expected goals of just 0.93 hint at struggles in converting possession into tangible opportunities. Meanwhile, Bradford's expected goals of 1.36 indicate a slightly sharper edge in the final third.
Bradford's current momentum — unbeaten in their last six league outings — sets them apart. Their defensive solidity, reflected in a low expected goals against of 0.82, could prove difficult for the hosts to breach. Although Burton holds a curious head-to-head advantage since 2023 with two wins from two, this small sample size is unlikely to overshadow the current form and expected performances of the visitors.
The model's probabilities lean heavily towards Bradford City, assigning them a 52% chance of victory. With only a 40% chance of the game exceeding 2.5 goals, the likelihood of a low-scoring contest looms large. Rainfall is expected, which further tempers the prospect of a goal-heavy match, already factored into the model's numbers. The most probable scorelines — 0-1 and 1-1 — underscore a cautious narrative with little room for error.
For those seeking value, Bradford City at odds of 2.02 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet represents a 5% edge over the model's rating, making it the standout option. The combination of their unbeaten streak and the hosts' limited attacking prowess suggests that backing the visitors is a well-grounded play.
Burton AlbionForm DWLLD
League ranking xG #24xGA #14xT #20xP/match #17Points #10
Key players
- Charlie WebsterLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
- Kgaogelo ChaukeCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02
- Finn DelapCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
Bradford CityForm WWDDW
League ranking xG #18xGA #1xT #8xP/match #9Points #1
Key players
- Aden William James BaldwinCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Ibou Omar TourayLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
- Joshua Tyler NeufvilleRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.20
Match prediction: Burton Albion – Bradford City
Predicted score matrix
Bradford City →
Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.5%
0–113.4%
0–29.4%
0–34.3%
0–4+2.0%
1
1–09.0%
1–113.2%
1–28.7%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–04.3%
2–15.9%
2–24.0%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–01.3%
3–11.8%
3–21.2%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.5%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-113%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.1-09%
Expected goals
0,93–1,36
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.78EV+3%
Over 2,540%
@2.04
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bradford City to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Jake Elliott Beesley to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Jake Elliott Beesley to score26%
- Kgaogelo Chauke to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.560% probability@1.78PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Bradford City52% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- 2 · Bradford City52% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Burton Albion | X | 2 · Bradford City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.55 | 3.30 | EV+ 5% 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | 3.50 | 3.35 | EV+ 5% 2.02 |
| Nordicbet | 3.55 | 3.30 | EV+ 5% 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | 3.39 | EV+ 7% 2.04 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 01:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesBurton Albion 2Draw 0Bradford City 0
Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.
Key facts
- Bradford City are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Burton Albion
Bradford City
Burton Albion (16–18)
Bradford City (10–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Burton Albion
Bradford City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Burton Albion
Bradford City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Burton Albion | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 20 |
| xPoints | 13.1 | 14.6 |
| xG per match | 0.77 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.82 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Burton Albion | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.68 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| Passes per match | 280 | 273 |
| Passes against per match | 336 | 263 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 27.8 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Burton Albion | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 3.8 | 7.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Other | Burton Albion | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Corey Kofi Cheremeh Addai (Burton Albion) | Jon Douglas McCracken (Bradford City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 28 | 14 |
| Save % | 61% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 70% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Burton Albion vs Bradford City according to our model?
The model gives Bradford City a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burton Albion 21%, draw 27%, Bradford City 52%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Bradford City?
The model expects 0.93 goals (xG) for Burton Albion and 1.36 for Bradford City, 2.29 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Burton Albion or draw (1X) 48%, Bradford City or draw (X2) 79% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.