01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Notts County or draw (1X)63%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL League OneMeadow Lane, Nottingham12°8,4 mm12 km/h
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Notts CountyPossession controlvs
Sheffield WednesdayPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Notts County (38%)Soft draw
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday · EFL League One
1 · Notts County 38%X 28%34% Sheffield Wednesday · 2
38%
28%
34%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday (EFL League One, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Notts County win 38%, draw 28%, Sheffield Wednesday win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Notts County 1.22, Sheffield Wednesday 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Notts County or draw 66%, Sheffield Wednesday or draw 62%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
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Analysis: Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: The clash between Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday is set to be a tightly contested affair, characterized by both teams' preference for possession control. County, despite their recent slump with four straight losses, will look to assert themselves against a Wednesday side enjoying a seven-match unbeaten run in the league. The hosts have a narrow model edge, reflected in the 38% probability of a win, but their current form poses a significant challenge.
Sheffield Wednesday's dominance in the underlying numbers is evident. They surpass County in points, expected points, xG per match, and xGA per match. With an xG of 2.1 compared to County's 0.98, the Owls have consistently created more opportunities and have been more resilient at the back.
Expect a low-scoring game, amplified by the forecasted 8.4 mm of rain, which typically dampens goal-scoring potential. The model suggests a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals, while the probability for both teams to score is marginally higher at 51%. The most likely outcomes are a 1-1 draw or a slender 1-0 victory for either side. Despite the close margins, the conditions and styles suggest a defensive battle.
For the shrewd bettor, value lies in the less glamorous. LeoVegas offers odds of 3.1 for a home win, which, based on the model's 38% likelihood, presents a substantial 19% edge. However, the more prudent play might be the under 2.5 goals at 1.98, capitalizing on the model's 54% likelihood, representing an 8% edge. In tight encounters like these, the numbers suggest that playing it safe with a well-grounded, defensive prediction could indeed pay the bills.
Notts CountyForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #21xGA #9xT #21xP/match #15Points #23
Key players
- Callum RobertsFxG 0.17 · xT 0.10
- James Andrew GibbonsCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
- Oliver Joseph CooperFxG 0.18 · xT 0.07
Sheffield WednesdayForm WDDDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #7xP/match #3Points #6
Key players
- Yan ValeryRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.21
- Callum SlatteryRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
- Reece JamesLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.23
Match prediction: Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday
Predicted score matrix
Sheffield Wednesday →
Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.6%
0–110.1%
0–26.7%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.6%
1–113.2%
1–28.2%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.1%
2–17.8%
2–25.0%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.2%
3–22.0%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,22–1,28
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@2.02EV+8%
Over 2,546%
@1.78
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Notts County or draw (1X)63%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Luka Benjamin Smyth to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Luka Benjamin Smyth to score26%
- Liam David Ian Cooper to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Notts County38% probability@3.24PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
- 1 · Notts County38% probability@3.15LeoVegasEV+21%reference odds
- Under 2.554% probability@2.02PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Notts County | X | 2 · Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | EV+ 21% 3.15 | 3.35 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 25% 3.24 | 3.49 | 2.15 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 08:35
Odds movement
1+6 %
33 %28 %
3.05 → 3.24
X+1 %
30 %25 %
3.46 → 3.49
2-5 %
45 %40 %
2.26 → 2.15
Over 2,50 %
56 %51 %
1.79 → 1.78
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Notts County have lost 4 in a row.
- Sheffield Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Notts County
Sheffield Wednesday
Notts County (8–13)
Sheffield Wednesday (20–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Notts County
Sheffield Wednesday
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Notts County
Sheffield Wednesday
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 18 |
| xPoints | 11.8 | 15.2 |
| xG per match | 0.98 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.55 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.9 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 280 | 372 |
| Passes against per match | 344 | 266 |
| Switches of play per match | 12.5 | 22.5 |
| Long balls per match | 22 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 6.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.77 | 0.5 |
| Other | Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | James Belshaw (Notts County) | Joseph Patrick Lumley (Sheffield Wednesday) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 20 |
| Save % | 65% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Wimbledon – Mansfield Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Luton Town – Barnsley20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Doncaster Rovers – Stockport County20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday according to our model?
The model gives Notts County a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Notts County 38%, draw 28%, Sheffield Wednesday 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday?
The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Notts County and 1.28 for Sheffield Wednesday, 2.50 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Notts County or draw (1X) 66%, Sheffield Wednesday or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.