01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Stockport County to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
EFL League OneEco-Power Stadium, Doncaster12°10,1 mm12 km/h
Läs på svenska
Doncaster RoversCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Stockport CountyPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Stockport County (47%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 17.00 (+13 %)
Doncaster Rovers vs Stockport County · EFL League One
1 · Doncaster Rovers 25%X 28%47% Stockport County · 2
25%
28%
47%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Doncaster Rovers vs Stockport County (EFL League One, Tuesday, 20 October 2026): Doncaster Rovers win 25%, draw 28%, Stockport County win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Doncaster Rovers 1.13, Stockport County 1.63. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Doncaster Rovers or draw 53%, Stockport County or draw 75%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Doncaster Rovers – Stockport County
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Stockport County leads with a 47% win probability, reflecting their recent form and tactical style. Their high press and control-centric play should dominate Doncaster's counter-attacking approach. The visitors' edge isn't just theoretical; they also boast 19 points to the hosts' 9. With an xG of 1.9, Stockport's offensive capabilities stand out, suggesting they could breach Doncaster's defense, which concedes 1.3 xGA per match.
Despite the rain and potential for fewer goals, the model still hints at a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 52%. The most probable outcomes narrow to a tight 1-1 or a Stockport win at either 0-1 or 1-2. The small head-to-head sample of just two matches, both won by Stockport, aligns with their current three-game winning streak and further supports the visitors' prospects.
The sharp angle here is value in the under markets. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer under 0.5 goals at 17.0 odds, an intriguing edge despite its long-shot nature. More realistically, under 2.5 at 2.22 with Betsafe presents a 6% edge. Even amidst the expected goals narrative, a lower-scoring affair could fit both teams' tactical tendencies and the damp conditions.
Doncaster RoversForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #8xT #15xP/match #11Points #17
Key players
- Jack Christopher SeniorLWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.19
- Seán GrehanCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.13
- Leon Zion Oluwatobi AyindeRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
Stockport CountyForm LDWWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #5xT #1xP/match #5Points #5
Key players
- Jack DiamondRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.20
- Kyle WoottonFxG 0.65 · xT -0.03
- Lewis BateCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Doncaster Rovers – Stockport County
Predicted score matrix
Stockport County →
Doncaster Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–110.0%
0–28.4%
0–34.6%
0–4+2.7%
1
1–06.8%
1–112.0%
1–29.5%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.0%
2
2–04.0%
2–16.6%
2–25.4%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.5%
3–22.0%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,13–1,63
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.23EV+2%
Over 2,552%
@1.64
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Stockport County to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Kyle Leon Wootton to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Kyle Leon Wootton to score24%
- Robbie Gotts to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- Under 0.57% probability@17.00NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@4.00PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Doncaster Rovers | X | 2 · Stockport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betsafe | 3.70 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 1.88 |
| LeoVegas | 3.50 | EV+ 4% 3.70 | 1.91 |
| Nordicbet | 3.70 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 3.62 | EV+ 13% 4.00 | 1.86 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 06:23
Odds movement
1+1 %
29 %24 %
3.59 → 3.62
X0 %
26 %21 %
3.99 → 4.00
2-1 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.86
Over 2,5+1 %
60 %55 %
1.63 → 1.64
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesDoncaster Rovers 0Draw 0Stockport County 2
Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.
Key facts
- Stockport County come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Doncaster Rovers
Stockport County
Doncaster Rovers (10–11)
Stockport County (21–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Doncaster Rovers
Stockport County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Doncaster Rovers
Stockport County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Doncaster Rovers | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 19 |
| xPoints | 12.6 | 15.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Doncaster Rovers | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.72 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.62 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 281 | 503 |
| Passes against per match | 303 | 308 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.6 | 30.3 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Doncaster Rovers | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 7.4 |
| Corners against per match | 6.9 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.68 |
| Other | Doncaster Rovers | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Tommy James Simkin (Doncaster Rovers) | Oliver Whatmuff (Stockport County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 22 |
| Save % | 71% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Bromley – Leicester City20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Notts County – Sheffield Wednesday20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Blackpool – Milton Keynes Dons20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cambridge United – Wycombe Wanderers20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stevenage – Plymouth Argyle20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Oxford United – Wigan Athletic20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Huddersfield Town – Peterborough United20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wimbledon – Mansfield Town20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Luton Town – Barnsley20 October 2026 20:45 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Doncaster Rovers vs Stockport County according to our model?
The model gives Stockport County a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Doncaster Rovers 25%, draw 28%, Stockport County 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Doncaster Rovers vs Stockport County?
The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Doncaster Rovers and 1.63 for Stockport County, 2.76 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Doncaster Rovers or draw (1X) 53%, Stockport County or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.