Plymouth Argyle vs Wimbledon Prediction: Home win 57% (10 Oct 2026)

EFL League One10 October 2026Home Park, Plymouth13°0,6 mm20 km/h

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Plymouth ArgyleLow block & direct

WimbledonLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Plymouth Argyle (57%)Best value by the model: 2 · Wimbledon @ 6.00 (+12 %)

1 · Plymouth Argyle 57%X 24%19% Wimbledon · 2

57%

24%

19%

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Analysis: Plymouth Argyle – Wimbledon

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Plymouth Argyle enters this League One fixture with a distinct advantage in both expected goals and points, and a key player in their setup is likely to be the attack-minded unit that's producing 1.81 xG per match. This figure stands in stark contrast to Wimbledon's more modest 0.93 xG. The hosts are clearly the more potent side offensively, and that translates directly into their 57% probability of winning, according to the model.

Despite these numbers, the encounter may not be a high-scoring affair. Both teams adopt a low-defence, direct style of play which could result in a scrappy and tightly contested match. Although the probability of over 2.5 goals is tipped slightly at 52%, the odds don't overwhelmingly support a goal-filled game, aligning with the model's most likely scorelines of 1-0, 1-1, and 2-0. The expected goals suggest Plymouth should control the game, but not necessarily run away with it.

The head-to-head record since 2023 is limited to just two matches, with each team having taken a victory. This small sample size cautions against over-reliance on historical outcomes, making current form and expected goals more relevant indicators. Plymouth's slight edge in points and xPoints further confirms their status as favorites, yet the margin is not so wide as to dismiss Wimbledon outright.

In a match where the draw and under 2.5 goals both present value as per the model, punters might find the most intrigue in LeoVegas's offerings. An under 2.5 goals bet at 2.18 offers a 5% edge, while backing a draw at 4.2 provides a 2% edge. For those willing to gamble on an upset, Wimbledon's odds of 6.0 offer a 12% edge, as calculated by the model. While Plymouth Argyle holds the advantage, the numbers hint at potential value in what could be a closer contest than expected.

Plymouth Argyle

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #13xP/match #3Points #4

Key players

Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel PeppleFxG 0.48 · xT -0.03
Ronan CurtisRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
Bradley Ryan IbrahimFxG 0.11 · xT 0.17

Wimbledon

Form LWWDD

League ranking xG #21xGA #15xT #15xP/match #18Points #8

Key players

Jayden Connor StockleyFxG 0.32 · xT 0.02
Steven Jeffrey SeddonLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
Ollie HarrisonFxG 0.00 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Plymouth Argyle – Wimbledon

Predicted score matrix

Wimbledon →

Plymouth Argyle →

0–06.7%

0–15.7%

0–22.8%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–011.3%

1–111.2%

1–25.1%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.5%

2–19.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.4%

3–15.9%

3–22.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.3%

4+–14.1%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-011%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,81–0,93

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.18EV+5%

Over 2,552%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Plymouth Argyle to win57%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Plymouth Argyle to win57%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel Pepple to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Aribusitamunoipirim Emmanuel Pepple to score31%
Alistair Oluwashaun Smith to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Wimbledon19% probability@6.00LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
2 · Wimbledon19% probability@5.90BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Wimbledon19% probability@5.90NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Plymouth Argyle	X	2 · Wimbledon
Betsafe	1.48	EV+ 0% 4.15	EV+ 10% 5.90
LeoVegas	1.44	EV+ 2% 4.20	EV+ 12% 6.00
Nordicbet	1.48	EV+ 0% 4.15	EV+ 10% 5.90

Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Plymouth Argyle 1Draw 0Wimbledon 1

Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on League One data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Plymouth Argyle

Wimbledon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Plymouth Argyle (14–11)

Wimbledon (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Plymouth Argyle

Wimbledon

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Plymouth Argyle

Wimbledon

The teams in numbers

Performance	Plymouth Argyle	Wimbledon
Points	13	12
xPoints	13	9.5
xG per match	1.5	1
xGA per match	1.3	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.2

Playing style	Plymouth Argyle	Wimbledon
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.47	0.48
xT per match	0.98	0.93
xTA per match	1	1
Won balls, offensive half	31	29
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.31
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.61	0.65
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.64
Passes per match	224	246
Passes against per match	336	312
Switches of play per match	12	12.7
Long balls per match	27	26

Set pieces	Plymouth Argyle	Wimbledon
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.06
Corners per match	5.6	5
Corners against per match	5.1	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.62

Other	Plymouth Argyle	Wimbledon
Throw-in control	0.76	0.72

The goalkeepers	Murphy Joseph Mahoney Cooper (Plymouth Argyle)	Josef John Bursik (Wimbledon)
Saves	12	17
Save %	52%	94%
xG prevented	32%	94%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Plymouth Argyle

Fixtures, form & tips

Wimbledon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Plymouth Argyle vs Wimbledon according to our model?

The model gives Plymouth Argyle a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Plymouth Argyle 57%, draw 24%, Wimbledon 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.