Brentford vs Sunderland: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Premier League5 September 2026Gtech Community Stadium, London20°2,1 mm12 km/h

Läs på svenska

BrentfordLow block & direct

SunderlandPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Brentford (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Sunderland @ 6.03 (+25 %)

1 · Brentford 53%X 26%21% Sunderland · 2

53%

26%

21%

Analysis: Brentford – Sunderland

Anna Karlsson · 28 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Numbers don't lie, and Brentford's superior expected goals (xG) metric spells potential trouble for Sunderland. The hosts boast an impressive xG per match of 4.4 compared to the visitors' 0.85, indicating a clear offensive edge. Brentford's low defense and direct style may exploit Sunderland's more possession-oriented approach, especially given the latter's xGA of 1.3 per match. This disparity highlights a defensive vulnerability that the home side is primed to capitalize on.

Although recent head-to-head records between these two are limited to just two encounters, Brentford did come out on top in one. Yet, this small sample size shouldn't overshadow the broader data favoring the hosts. Historical form leans heavily toward Brentford, who have not only outperformed the visitors in actual points but also in expected points (xPoints).

The model suggests a 53% probability for a home win, with Sunderland's chances languishing at 21%. Weather-wise, the forecasted rain could slightly dampen the scoring, though it's already factored into the analysis. The most likely scorelines seem to favor a narrow Brentford win, with 1-0 and 2-1 both sitting at 10% each, closely following the 1-1 draw at 12%. Given these numbers, a tighter affair seems plausible, but Brentford's edge suggests they might just have enough to eke out a result.

Brentford holds a clear model edge to win this match. While the over 2.5 goals market leans towards 52%, the rain and Brentford's direct style suggest a more controlled victory might unfold. Expect Brentford to win, likely edging out Sunderland with a 2-1 scoreline, slightly favoring the over.

Brentford

Form WLDDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #2xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Igor ThiagoFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
Kevin SchadeLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.06
Mathias JensenCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.16

Sunderland

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #16xP/match #17Points #14

Key players

Brian BrobbeyFxG 0.31 · xT -0.01
Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.12
Trai HumeRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Brentford – Sunderland

Predicted score matrix

Sunderland →

Brentford →

0–06.6%

0–16.4%

0–23.7%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.2%

1–111.8%

1–26.2%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.9%

2–19.7%

2–25.2%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.0%

3–15.4%

3–22.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.1%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,69–1,09

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.06

Over 2,552%

@1.83

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Brentford to win53%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Brentford to win53%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Antoni-Djibu Milambo to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Antoni-Djibu Milambo to score24%
Granit Xhaka to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Sunderland21% probability@6.03BetssonEV+25%reference odds
2 · Sunderland21% probability@6.00BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
2 · Sunderland21% probability@6.00NordicbetEV+25%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brentford	X	2 · Sunderland
Betsafe	1.58	3.80	EV+ 25% 6.00
Betsson	1.60	3.84	EV+ 25% 6.03
Nordicbet	1.60	3.85	EV+ 25% 6.00
Pinnacle	1.58	EV+ 7% 4.16	EV+ 24% 5.99

Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:15

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Brentford win since 28 August — the odds have shortened from 1.68 to 1.58 (−6%).

1-6 %

61 %56 %

1.68 → 1.58

X+9 %

26 %21 %

3.82 → 4.16

2+20 %

20 %15 %

5.01 → 5.99

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %50 %

1.84 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 28/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Brentford 1Draw 0Sunderland 1

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brentford

Sunderland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brentford (3–0)

Sunderland (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brentford

Sunderland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brentford

Sunderland

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brentford	Sunderland
Points	3	0
xPoints	2.8	0.7
xG per match	4.4	0.85
xGA per match	0.48	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	1.3	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.29

Playing style	Brentford	Sunderland
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.38	0.69
xT per match	2.3	0.55
xTA per match	0.66	1
Won balls, offensive half	48	18
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.38
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.39
Entries into the box per match	21	8
Entries into the box against	13	5
Pass completion %	0.77	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	305	495
Passes against per match	466	268
Switches of play per match	25.5	41.9
Long balls per match	45	45

Set pieces	Brentford	Sunderland
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	7.1	5.1
Corners against per match	3.1	3.1
xG per corner	0.19	0.02
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	1	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	1

Other	Brentford	Sunderland
Throw-in control	0.8	0.77

The goalkeepers	Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford)	Luke O'Nien (Sunderland)
Saves	4	1
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brentford vs Sunderland according to our model?

The model gives Brentford a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brentford 53%, draw 26%, Sunderland 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.