Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Premier League5 September 2026The City Ground, Nottingham18°13 km/h

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Nottingham ForestPossession control

Tottenham HotspurBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Nottingham Forest (39%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.03 (+1 %)

1 · Nottingham Forest 39%X 28%33% Tottenham Hotspur · 2

39%

28%

33%

Analysis: Nottingham Forest – Tottenham Hotspur

Sofia Andersson · 28 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT holds mostly, but contains two factual issues not supported by FACTS:

1. The claim "offering potential value at 2.50 with Bet365 on a home win" introduces betting odds information not present in the FACTS and should be removed as unsupported. 2. The claim "the numbers suggest a slight lean towards under" contradicts the FACTS — with combined expected goals of 2.65 (1.43+1.22) and a 54% BTTS rate, the data leans slightly toward over 2.5 goals, not under.

Corrected text:

The tension on this match hones in on Nottingham Forest's recent dominance over Tottenham Hotspur, winning all four encounters since 2022. Yet, it's key to remember the sample size here is small, and current form and expected goals weigh more heavily in our analysis. Forest enters this contest as slight favorites with a 39% win probability, reflecting not just recent head-to-head success, but also a slightly superior expected goals tally of 1.43 compared to Spurs' 1.22.

Forest's possession-oriented style has consistently troubled Spurs' balanced yet often physical approach. The hosts have managed a compelling 1.1 xPoints to Spurs' meager 0.1, underlining their efficiency and effectiveness in these clashes. Moreover, Forest's xG per match stands at 0.88 against Spurs' 0.48, while the visitors have an alarmingly high xGA per match of 4.4—an area of concern that the home side could exploit.

The model suggests the likeliest scorelines hover around a narrow home victory or a draw, with 1-1 and 1-0 both within the realm of possibility. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits finely balanced at 50%, and given the combined expected goals and a 54% both-teams-to-score rate, the numbers suggest a slight lean towards over rather than under.

The edge here is subtle but present. Forest's track record, combined with their ability to convert possession into meaningful threats, provides them with a tangible advantage. With both teams projected to score 54% of the time, a tight affair seems probable, pointing towards a 1-0 or 2-1 victory for the hosts.

Nottingham Forest

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #14xGA #6xT #11xP/match #12Points #15

Key players

Chris WoodFxG 0.44 · xT -0.02
Elliot AndersonCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.17
Callum Hudson OdoiLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.10

Tottenham Hotspur

Form WDLWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #14xP/match #20Points #18

Key players

RicharlisonFxG 0.40 · xT 0.07
Mohammed KudusRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Conor GallagherCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Nottingham Forest – Tottenham Hotspur

Predicted score matrix

Tottenham Hotspur →

Nottingham Forest →

0–07.4%

0–18.2%

0–25.2%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.7%

1–112.7%

1–27.5%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.2%

2–18.8%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.5%

3–14.2%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,43–1,22

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@1.85

Over 2,550%

@2.03EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals50%
Morgan Anthony Gibbs-White to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Xavier Quentin Shay Simons to score31%
Douglas Luiz Soares de Paulo to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.550% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nottingham Forest	X	2 · Tottenham Hotspur
Betsafe	2.50	3.25	2.85
Betsson	2.52	3.28	2.85
Nordicbet	2.52	3.30	2.85
Pinnacle	2.56	3.43	2.82

Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:15

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Nottingham Forest win since 28 August — the odds have shortened from 2.79 to 2.56 (−8%).

1-8 %

38 %33 %

2.79 → 2.56

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.44 → 3.43

2+14 %

39 %34 %

2.47 → 2.82

Over 2,5-1 %

49 %44 %

2.06 → 2.03

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 28/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nottingham Forest 4Draw 0Tottenham Hotspur 0

Goals: 9–1 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nottingham Forest

Tottenham Hotspur

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nottingham Forest (0–1)

Tottenham Hotspur (0–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nottingham Forest

Tottenham Hotspur

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nottingham Forest

Tottenham Hotspur

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham Hotspur
Points	0	0
xPoints	1.1	0.1
xG per match	0.88	0.48
xGA per match	0.86	4.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.05	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	1.3

Playing style	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham Hotspur
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.68	0.62
xT per match	0.9	0.66
xTA per match	0.52	2.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	35
Pressing intensity	0.19	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.21
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	6	21
Pass completion %	0.75	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.77
Passes per match	352	466
Passes against per match	249	305
Switches of play per match	40.8	20.4
Long balls per match	43	21

Set pieces	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham Hotspur
xG from free kicks	0.17	0
Corners per match	3.1	3.1
Corners against per match	2	7.1
xG per corner	0.03	0
xGA per corner against	0	0.19
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.67
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0

Other	Nottingham Forest	Tottenham Hotspur
Throw-in control	1	0.69

The goalkeepers	Ibrahim Sangaré (Nottingham Forest)	Antonín Kinský (Tottenham Hotspur)
Saves	3	5
Save %	100%	63%
xG prevented	100%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur according to our model?

The model gives Nottingham Forest a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nottingham Forest 39%, draw 28%, Tottenham Hotspur 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.