Auxerre vs Brest: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Ligue 119 September 2026Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre17°17 km/h

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AuxerreBalanced & physical

BrestPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Auxerre (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+7 %)

1 · Auxerre 36%X 32%33% Brest · 2

36%

32%

33%

Analysis: Auxerre – Brest

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Auxerre's recent form is concerning, with three consecutive losses hanging over them. Despite their ability to find the net in eight straight league games, the hosts' defensive frailties are glaring. Brest, with their high-pressing, possession-oriented approach, find themselves in a stronger position. The visitors have accumulated five points to Auxerre's zero and boast a superior expected goals (xG) per match of 2.6 compared to Auxerre's 1.2.

The head-to-head record since 2022 is less instructive due to the small sample size of four matches, but Auxerre holds a slight edge with two wins to Brest's one. However, this advantage is overshadowed by the underlying metrics, where Brest not only leads in expected points (6.6 to 2.9) but also displays a more robust defense, conceding only 1.1 xGA per match to Auxerre's 2.4. The model leans slightly towards Auxerre, but the marginal difference in winning probabilities suggests a closely contested match.

Given the expected goals numbers, the most likely scoreline appears to be a 1-1 draw. With only a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals, a low-scoring affair is expected.

Auxerre

Form WWLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #13xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Daniel Namaso Edi-Mesumbe LoaderFxG 0.35 · xT 0.01
Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Lamine SyRWBxG 0.16 · xT 0.12

Brest

Form LDDDW

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #6xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Ludovic AjorqueFxG 0.44 · xT 0.14
Romain Del CastilloRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Kamory DoumbiaCAMxG 1.01 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Auxerre – Brest

Predicted score matrix

Brest →

Auxerre →

0–08.9%

0–19.9%

0–26.2%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.3%

1–113.3%

1–27.8%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.7%

2–18.1%

2–24.9%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.8%

3–13.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,21

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.91EV+6%

Over 2,545%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Auxerre or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Auxerre or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score28%
Elisha Owusu to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw32% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.40BetssonEV+7%reference odds
X · Draw32% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Auxerre	X	2 · Brest
Betsafe	2.70	EV+ 7% 3.40	2.50
Betsson	2.70	EV+ 7% 3.40	2.50
Nordicbet	2.70	EV+ 7% 3.40	2.50

Odds updated 11 Sept, 07:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Auxerre 2Draw 1Brest 1

Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

Key facts

Auxerre have lost 3 in a row.
Auxerre have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Auxerre

Brest

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Auxerre (4–11)

Brest (6–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Auxerre

Brest

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Auxerre

Brest

The teams in numbers

Performance	Auxerre	Brest
Points	0	5
xPoints	2.9	6.6
xG per match	1.2	2.6
xGA per match	2.4	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.35	0.28

Playing style	Auxerre	Brest
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.54	0.5
xT per match	0.87	1.2
xTA per match	1.5	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	24	39
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	15
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.67
Passes per match	323	325
Passes against per match	364	352
Switches of play per match	25.4	36.6
Long balls per match	32	45

Set pieces	Auxerre	Brest
xG from free kicks	0	0.21
Corners per match	6.1	7.2
Corners against per match	7.4	2.6
xG per corner	0.01	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.02	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.53	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.73	0.75

Other	Auxerre	Brest
Throw-in control	0.75	0.66

The goalkeepers	Mamadou Diop (Auxerre)	Egil Selvik (Brest)
Saves	12	6
Save %	52%	55%
xG prevented	26%	18%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Auxerre

Fixtures, form & tips

Brest

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Auxerre vs Brest according to our model?

The model gives Auxerre a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Auxerre 36%, draw 32%, Brest 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.