01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Monaco to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ligue 1Stade Louis II, Monaco23°13 km/h
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MonacoLow block & directvs
LensBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Monaco (46%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.56 (+16 %)
Monaco – Lens · Ligue 1
1 · Monaco 46%X 25%29% Lens · 2
46%
25%
29%
Analysis: Monaco – Lens
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Monaco's recent surge in form, marked by three consecutive victories, sets the stage for an intriguing clash against Lens. With a 46% chance of victory according to model probabilities, the home side is favored to edge this encounter. However, the numbers suggest a tight contest. Lens may have the upper hand in head-to-head encounters with two wins in the last four matches, but this small sample size is less significant than Monaco's current form and tactical approach.
Monaco's attacking strategy, best described as low defense and direct, is complemented by their impressive record at home, winning 66% of their matches on familiar turf. Yet, their expected goals of 1.54 against Lens' 1.32 suggest a narrow margin. The visitors are no pushovers, thriving on a balanced and physical style, and this season they’ve generated more xG per match (2.4) compared to Monaco’s 1.2. This imbalance hints at a high-stakes chess match, where each side will look to exploit the other's vulnerabilities.
With both teams boasting strong attacking potential, the model reflects a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will find the net. The most likely scorelines indicate a close affair, with a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome at 12%. Yet, a 2-1 victory for the hosts is not far behind at 9%, reflecting Monaco's slight ascendancy in the model's eyes.
MonacoForm LLWWW
League ranking xG #16xGA #11xT #15xP/match #8Points #1
Key players
- Lamine CamaraCMxG 0.01 · xT -0.01
- Paris BrunnerFxG 0.71 · xT -0.06
- Stanis IdumboLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
LensForm LWWLL
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #3Points #10
Key players
- Florian Tristán Mariano ThauvinRWxG 0.85 · xT 0.47
- Abdallah SimaFxG 0.16 · xT 0.04
- Franjo IvanovićLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.27
Match prediction: Monaco – Lens
Predicted score matrix
Lens →
Monaco →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–17.2%
0–25.0%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.0%
1–27.7%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.8%
2–19.0%
2–25.9%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.6%
3–23.0%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,54–1,32
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.56EV+16%
Over 2,555%
@1.52
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Monaco to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Maghnes Akliouche to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Maghnes Akliouche to score27%
- Pierre-Ismaëlo Ganiou to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.545% probability@2.56BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.56BetssonEV+16%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.56NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monaco | X | 2 · Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Betsson | EV+ 5% 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 07:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMonaco 1Draw 1Lens 2
Goals: 5–11 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Monaco come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Monaco win 66% of their home matches all-time (35 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monaco
Lens
Monaco (5–1)
Lens (6–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monaco
Lens
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monaco
Lens
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 3 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.44 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 0.73 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 321 | 431 |
| Passes against per match | 542 | 373 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.2 | 32.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 3.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Other | Monaco | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukas Hradecky (Monaco) | Robin Risser (Lens) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 9 |
| Save % | 93% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 76% | 28% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monaco vs Lens according to our model?
The model gives Monaco a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monaco 46%, draw 25%, Lens 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.