Auxerre vs Brest: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Ligue 120 September 2026Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre18°18 km/h

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AuxerreLow block & direct

BrestBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Auxerre (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.98 (+16 %)

1 · Auxerre 36%X 32%33% Brest · 2

36%

32%

33%

Analysis: Auxerre – Brest

Erik Lindberg · 18 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Auxerre's knack for finding the back of the net in their last nine consecutive league games stands out, suggesting they possess an attacking edge that could shift the balance in their favor. Despite this scoring streak, their defensive vulnerabilities remain a concern, as evidenced by their high xGA of 2.0 per match. The hosts' style, defined by low defensive engagement and direct play, might struggle against Brest's balanced and physical approach.

Brest, with a slight edge in both points and xPoints, appear more robust on paper. Their xG of 2.1 per match significantly outshines Auxerre's 1.2, although the visitors' ability to convert these chances remains crucial. A compact defense, allowing just 1.1 xGA per match, further exemplifies their capacity to maintain control in tense situations, which may hinder Auxerre's scoring run.

The small head-to-head sample since 2022, with Auxerre claiming two wins, does not offer much weight against current season metrics. Both teams are closely matched, with model probabilities barely separating them: Auxerre at 36%, Brest at 33%, and the draw at 32%. The most likely outcome may well be a 1-1 draw, reflecting both the expected goals and the model's assessment.

Given the over 2.5 goals likelihood at 45%, this game leans towards a low-scoring affair. For those seeking value, the under 1.5 goals market offers a compelling bet. With odds of 4.02 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, and the model assigning a 29% chance to this outcome, a significant 17% edge is present. It's a calculated risk, but for those who appreciate stable, well-reasoned plays, it's the sharpest angle available.

Auxerre

Form WLLLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #18xP/match #12Points #14

Key players

Cameron Desmond ArcherFxG 0.42 · xT 0.15
Daniel Namaso Edi-Mesumbe LoaderFxG 0.37 · xT -0.01
Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07

Brest

Form DDDWL

League ranking xG #1xGA #4xT #5xP/match #1Points #9

Key players

Ludovic AjorqueFxG 0.38 · xT 0.12
Romain Del CastilloRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Joris Jean-Claude Jacques ChotardCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Auxerre – Brest

Predicted score matrix

Brest →

Auxerre →

0–08.9%

0–19.9%

0–26.2%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.3%

1–113.3%

1–27.8%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–06.7%

2–18.1%

2–24.9%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.8%

3–13.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,26–1,21

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@2.08EV+14%

Over 2,545%

@1.79

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Auxerre or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Auxerre or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Lassine Fanta Mady Sinayoko to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Ludovic Ajorque to score28%
Hugo Magnetti to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.529% probability@3.98BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
Under 1.529% probability@3.98BetssonEV+16%reference odds
Under 1.529% probability@3.98NordicbetEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Auxerre	X	2 · Brest
Betsafe	2.80	EV+ 9% 3.45	2.40
Betsson	2.80	EV+ 9% 3.45	2.40
Nordicbet	2.80	EV+ 9% 3.45	2.40
Pinnacle	EV+ 2% 2.87	EV+ 13% 3.59	2.44

Odds updated 18 Sept, 12:19

Odds movement

1+5 %

37 %32 %

2.74 → 2.87

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.62 → 3.59

2-2 %

41 %36 %

2.49 → 2.44

Over 2,5-3 %

56 %51 %

1.84 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 18/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Auxerre 2Draw 1Brest 1

Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

Key facts

Auxerre have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Auxerre

Brest

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Auxerre (5–11)

Brest (6–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Auxerre

Brest

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Auxerre

Brest

The teams in numbers

Performance	Auxerre	Brest
Points	3	5
xPoints	5	7.8
xG per match	1.2	2.1
xGA per match	2	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.34

Playing style	Auxerre	Brest
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.51	0.44
xT per match	0.79	1.2
xTA per match	1.4	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	24	36
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.74	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.67
Passes per match	293	335
Passes against per match	422	407
Switches of play per match	23.4	33.6
Long balls per match	30	43

Set pieces	Auxerre	Brest
xG from free kicks	0	0.16
Corners per match	5.3	6.1
Corners against per match	7.5	2.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.77	0.6

Other	Auxerre	Brest
Throw-in control	0.74	0.69

The goalkeepers	Mamadou Diop (Auxerre)	Egil Selvik (Brest)
Saves	16	12
Save %	59%	67%
xG prevented	31%	32%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Auxerre

Fixtures, form & tips

Brest

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Auxerre vs Brest according to our model?

The model gives Auxerre a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Auxerre 36%, draw 32%, Brest 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.