Nice vs Lille: Prediction & Odds (20 Sept 2026)

Ligue 120 September 2026Allianz Riviera, Nice24°12 km/h

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NiceBalanced & physical

LilleBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Lille (47%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 13.00 (+9 %)

1 · Nice 27%X 26%47% Lille · 2

27%

26%

47%

Analysis: Nice – Lille

Oscar Nilsson · 18 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Nice and Lille since 2022 stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss for Nice — a fairly balanced sample. Yet, this small sample does little to overshadow Lille's recent compelling form and statistical advantage. With Lille securing 10 points from their last encounters compared to Nice's 2, there's a clear edge for the visitors. The numbers paint a picture of Lille's dominance, highlighted by their higher expected goals (xG) per match at 1.3 compared to Nice's 0.85.

Nice may find themselves on the back foot, despite being at home. Lille's expected goals against (xGA) per match are somewhat higher at 1.7 versus Nice's 1.4, but it doesn't distort the overall performance gap. Lille's expected points (xPoints) of 6.2 further emphasize their efficiency and attacking prowess. The model also slightly favors Lille with a 47% probability of winning, suggesting they are rightly considered the stronger side.

Given the data, the most likely scorelines are quite telling, with 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%) leading the probabilities. The expected goals tally for both teams, combined with their playing styles, suggests a tense, physical battle rather than a high-scoring affair. The model gives a 46% probability for over 2.5 goals, but the under 2.5 remains the favored outcome.

For bettors, there is value in betting on under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given the model's 54% estimation. This reflects a small but noteworthy edge. As the final whistle approaches, Lille seems poised to edge it, possibly 1-1 or 0-1, in line with the model's leading scoreline probabilities.

Nice

Form DDLDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #8xT #10xP/match #18Points #17

Key players

Sepe Elye Delmas WahiFxG 0.19 · xT -0.09
Jonathan ClaussRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.38
Mohamed AbdelmonemRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Lille

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #16xP/match #4Points #1

Key players

Ayase UedaRWxG 0.85 · xT 0.08
Ethan MbappeFxG 0.49 · xT 0.15
Tiago Carvalho SantosRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Nice – Lille

Predicted score matrix

Lille →

Nice →

0–08.4%

0–111.6%

0–28.9%

0–34.4%

0–4+2.3%

1–07.9%

1–112.7%

1–29.2%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.4%

2–04.3%

2–16.4%

2–24.8%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.2%

3–01.5%

3–12.2%

3–21.6%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.1-29%
4.0-29%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,04–1,49

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.95EV+5%

Over 2,546%

@1.96

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lille to win47%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lille to win47%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Soriba Diaoune to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Soriba Diaoune to score24%
Antoine Mendy to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.58% probability@13.00Betfair ExchangeEV+9%reference odds
Both teams to score: No50% probability@2.14Betfair ExchangeEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.554% probability@1.95Betfair ExchangeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nice	X	2 · Lille
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 2% 3.80	3.55	2.04
Betsafe	3.70	3.40	2.02
Betsson	3.70	3.40	2.02
Nordicbet	3.70	3.40	2.02
Pinnacle	3.68	3.48	2.09

Odds updated 17 Sept, 08:36

Odds movement

1-3 %

28 %23 %

3.79 → 3.68

X-1 %

30 %25 %

3.51 → 3.48

2+3 %

49 %44 %

2.02 → 2.09

Over 2,5+1 %

52 %47 %

1.93 → 1.94

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 14/09/2026 → 17/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nice 1Draw 2Lille 1

Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nice

Lille

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nice (1–5)

Lille (7–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nice

Lille

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nice

Lille

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nice	Lille
Points	2	10
xPoints	3.3	6.2
xG per match	0.85	1.3
xGA per match	1.4	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.11	0.49
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.53	0.34

Playing style	Nice	Lille
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.32
Field tilt	0.66	0.3
xT per match	1.1	0.81
xTA per match	0.92	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	32	20
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.2
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	10	17
Pass completion %	0.83	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.75
Passes per match	575	382
Passes against per match	354	478
Switches of play per match	37.6	21.8
Long balls per match	39	26

Set pieces	Nice	Lille
xG from free kicks	0.01	0
Corners per match	6.6	1.8
Corners against per match	2.5	6.1
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.29
First touch, defensive corners %	0.3	0.5

Other	Nice	Lille
Throw-in control	0.8	0.55

The goalkeepers	Yehvann Diouf (Nice)	Berke Özer (Lille)
Saves	10	15
Save %	67%	88%
xG prevented	36%	92%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nice

Fixtures, form & tips

Lille

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nice vs Lille according to our model?

The model gives Lille a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nice 27%, draw 26%, Lille 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.