01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Auxerre to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Ligue 1Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre14°17,4 mm33 km/h
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AuxerreBalanced & physicalvs
Le MansLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Auxerre (49%)
Auxerre vs Le Mans · Ligue 1
1 · Auxerre 49%X 28%23% Le Mans · 2
49%
28%
23%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Auxerre vs Le Mans (Ligue 1, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Auxerre win 49%, draw 28%, Le Mans win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Auxerre 1.69, Le Mans 1.22. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Auxerre or draw 77%, Le Mans or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Auxerre – Le Mans
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Auxerre's 49% win probability stands out as a critical figure against Le Mans, highlighting the home side's edge. Having scored in 12 consecutive league matches, Auxerre's ability to find the net is a significant strength. Their balanced and physical style contrasts sharply with Le Mans' low defensive setup and direct play, which could leave the visitors vulnerable to Auxerre's sustained pressure.
Expected goals further illuminate Auxerre's advantage: 1.69 to Le Mans' 1.22, suggesting more attacking potency from the hosts. Although both teams are evenly matched in terms of xG per match at 1.2, Auxerre's superior xGA of 1.7 compared to Le Mans' 1.9 indicates a slightly more robust defense. With 15.2 mm of rain expected, conditions might suppress Auxerre's scoring potential, but the model already accounts for this, making Auxerre's 2-1 or 1-0 victory realistic outcomes. The model leans towards the over 2.5 goals at 55%, which aligns with the expectation of a closely contested match.
For bettors, Auxerre offers value. With LeoVegas providing odds of 2.15, there's a 5% edge given the model's 49% win expectation. Betsafe and Nordicbet also show slight value at 2.08 odds, reinforcing Auxerre's potential as the more likely victor.
AuxerreForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #13xT #18xP/match #9Points #10
Key players
- Kévin DanoisCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Daniel Namaso Edi-Mesumbe LoaderFxG 0.38 · xT 0.06
- Cameron Desmond ArcherFxG 0.27 · xT 0.06
Le MansForm DDWLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #15xT #17xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Mouhamadou Habibou DialloFxG 0.24 · xT 0.03
- Adil Ali Mohamed BourabaaFxG 0.25 · xT 0.04
- Djibril SidibéCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Auxerre – Le Mans
Predicted score matrix
Le Mans →
Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–16.3%
0–24.0%
0–31.6%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–08.9%
1–111.6%
1–26.8%
1–32.8%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.8%
2–19.5%
2–25.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–04.4%
3–15.3%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,69–1,22
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.22
Over 2,555%
@1.74
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Auxerre to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Rémy Labeau Lascary to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Louis Didace Mafouta to score24%
- Naouirou Mohamed Ahamada to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Auxerre49% probability@2.15LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Auxerre49% probability@2.11PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Auxerre49% probability@2.08BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Auxerre | X | 2 · Le Mans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 2.08 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 2.11 | EV+ 1% 3.60 | 3.29 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Key facts
- Auxerre have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Auxerre
Le Mans
Auxerre (11–17)
Le Mans (10–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Auxerre
Le Mans
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Auxerre
Le Mans
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 6 |
| xPoints | 9.7 | 8.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 310 | 333 |
| Passes against per match | 405 | 430 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.3 | 26.7 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| Corners against per match | 7.5 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.49 |
| Other | Auxerre | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Mamadou Diop (Auxerre) | Nicolas Kocik (Le Mans) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 18 |
| Save % | 60% | 62% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Auxerre vs Le Mans according to our model?
The model gives Auxerre a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Auxerre 49%, draw 28%, Le Mans 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
The model expects 1.69 goals (xG) for Auxerre and 1.22 for Le Mans, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Auxerre or draw (1X) 77%, Le Mans or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.