Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction: Home win 47% (24 Oct 2026)

Ligue 124 October 2026Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse13°14 km/h

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ToulousePossession control

TroyesPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Toulouse (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Troyes @ 5.00 (+41 %)

1 · Toulouse 47%X 25%28% Troyes · 2

47%

25%

28%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Toulouse vs Troyes (Ligue 1, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Toulouse win 47%, draw 25%, Troyes win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Toulouse 1.75, Troyes 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Toulouse or draw 72%, Troyes or draw 53%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Toulouse – Troyes

Anna Karlsson · 19 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Five consecutive defeats weigh heavily on Troyes, a team struggling to find their footing in Ligue 1. This streak starkly contrasts with the steady, if unspectacular, form of Toulouse. The hosts have a modest lead in both points and expected points, suggesting a slight edge in this matchup. As the teams prepare to clash, the critical question is whether Troyes can break their losing streak against a side that seems to have the upper hand.

The numbers tell a compelling story. Toulouse, predicted to control possession, have an expected goals tally of 1.75 per match, highlighting their ability to create chances. Troyes, despite their pressing style, lag behind with just 1.2 xG per match. This discrepancy is mirrored in their expected goals against figures, where Toulouse again show a slight advantage. It paints a picture of a match where the home team should dominate the play, yet Troyes remains a threat, particularly if they can exploit any defensive lapses.

Forecast models lean towards a Toulouse victory, with a 47% chance of them clinching the win. The most likely scoreline is a tight 1-1 draw, with a 2-1 win for the hosts close behind. However, the data also suggests a 59% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood of both teams getting on the scoresheet. This indicates that while Toulouse might hold the upper hand, Troyes are expected to pose a significant threat offensively.

Amidst these probabilities, an interesting betting angle emerges. Despite their poor form, Troyes offers value at odds of 5.05 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, or 4.9 with LeoVegas. The model perceives a 28% chance of an upset, marking a considerable value edge. For punters with an appetite for risk, this represents the sharpest angle in a game where the numbers hint at a closely-fought contest.

Toulouse

Form LDWDW

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #10xP/match #6Points #9

Key players

Ilyas AziziFxG 0.17 · xT 0.09
Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.30
Rasmus NicolaisenCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.02

Troyes

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #5xP/match #14Points #17

Key players

Antoine MilleCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.20
Dermane KarimCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
Adrien MonfrayCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Toulouse – Troyes

Predicted score matrix

Troyes →

Toulouse →

0–05.0%

0–15.8%

0–24.0%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.8%

1–07.8%

1–111.1%

1–27.1%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.1%

2–19.4%

2–26.2%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.2%

3–15.5%

3–23.6%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.7%

4+–13.6%

4+–22.3%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,75–1,32

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.32

Over 2,559%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Toulouse to win47%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Toulouse to win47%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Ilyas Azizi to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Ilyas Azizi to score33%
Mouhamed Diop to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Troyes28% probability@5.00BetsafeEV+41%reference odds
2 · Troyes28% probability@5.00NordicbetEV+41%reference odds
2 · Troyes28% probability@4.80LeoVegasEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Toulouse	X	2 · Troyes
Betsafe	1.62	EV+ 1% 4.05	EV+ 41% 5.00
LeoVegas	1.64	EV+ 5% 4.20	EV+ 36% 4.80
Nordicbet	1.62	EV+ 1% 4.05	EV+ 41% 5.00

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

Odds movement

1-4 %

59 %54 %

1.70 → 1.64

X+2 %

25 %20 %

4.10 → 4.20

2+9 %

23 %18 %

4.40 → 4.80

Over 2,50 %

62 %57 %

1.58 → 1.58

LeoVegas · 20 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Troyes have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Toulouse

Troyes

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Toulouse (12–11)

Troyes (5–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Toulouse

Troyes

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Toulouse

Troyes

The teams in numbers

Performance	Toulouse	Troyes
Points	9	4
xPoints	10.4	8.4
xG per match	1.7	1.2
xGA per match	1.5	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.25

Playing style	Toulouse	Troyes
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.36
Field tilt	0.5	0.54
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	0.96	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	32
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.17
Entries into the box per match	13	14
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.8	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.7
Passes per match	435	297
Passes against per match	432	527
Switches of play per match	26	30.2
Long balls per match	30	34

Set pieces	Toulouse	Troyes
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.05
Corners per match	4.2	7.2
Corners against per match	4.5	2.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.64	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.77	0.73

Other	Toulouse	Troyes
Throw-in control	0.8	0.65

The goalkeepers	Guillaume Restes (Toulouse)	Patrick Thomas Beach (Troyes)
Saves	17	17
Save %	74%	53%
xG prevented	56%	34%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Toulouse

Fixtures, form & tips

Troyes

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Toulouse vs Troyes according to our model?

The model gives Toulouse a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Toulouse 47%, draw 25%, Troyes 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Troyes?

The model expects 1.75 goals (xG) for Toulouse and 1.32 for Troyes, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Toulouse or draw (1X) 72%, Troyes or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.