01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Paris Saint-Germain to win69%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Ligue 1Parc des Princes, Paris13°13,0 mm32 km/h
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Paris Saint-GermainPossession & high pressvs
LyonPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Paris Saint-Germain (69%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.90 (+5 %)
Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon · Ligue 1
1 · Paris Saint-Germain 69%X 18%13% Lyon · 2
69%
18%
13%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon (Ligue 1, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Paris Saint-Germain win 69%, draw 18%, Lyon win 13%. Expected goals (xG): Paris Saint-Germain 2.37, Lyon 0.92. Most likely score: 2-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Paris Saint-Germain or draw 87%, Lyon or draw 31%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Paris Saint-Germain's relentless scoring ability might hint at another home win, but Lyon's knack for possession control and their defensive capabilities could complicate matters. PSG have been on a tear, winning four straight, and they rarely falter at home. Their 78% win rate in these fixtures is daunting for any opponent. Yet, despite their prowess, Lyon's potential to disrupt is underscored by their xPoints advantage, suggesting a closer contest than the market might predict.
The expected goals (xG) statistics reveal PSG's offensive firepower with an xG of 2.4 per match, which they complement with a robust high press. Lyon, on the other hand, channel their possession to create decisive moments, reflected in their superior xG within 8 seconds of regaining the ball. While PSG's historical edge in this matchup holds some weight, the small sample size of four encounters since 2022 advises caution when comparing seasons.
Rain could play an influential role, likely dampening the goal count. The model's 64% chance for over 2.5 goals contrasts with the potential for a tighter game under adverse weather. Both teams have strengths that could neutralize each other, making a narrow PSG victory, perhaps 2-1, the likeliest outcome. The market slightly underestimates Lyon's threat, but the home side's scoring run in 27 consecutive league matches is hard to overlook.
The sharpest angle for bettors lies in the undervalued unders. LeoVegas offers 3.1 odds on under 2.5 goals, a juicy proposition rated at a 36% chance (12% edge) by the model. Even more conservative unders, like under 3.5 and under 4.5, present value, particularly if the rain tempers attacking ambitions.
Paris Saint-GermainForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Lucas HernandezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Willian PachoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.01
- Vítor Machado FerreiraCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.23
LyonForm WDWLW
League ranking xG #8xGA #1xT #13xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Ernest NuamahRWxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
- Moussa NiakhatéCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
- Lois OpendaLWxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon
Predicted score matrix
Lyon →
Paris Saint-Germain →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.0%
0–13.2%
0–21.6%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.6%
1–18.4%
1–23.7%
1–31.1%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–010.5%
2–19.6%
2–24.4%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–08.3%
3–17.6%
3–23.5%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–08.6%
4+–17.9%
4+–23.6%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-010%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-18%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,37–0,92
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,536%
@2.90EV+5%
Over 2,564%
@1.38
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Paris Saint-Germain to win69%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Warren Zaïre-Emery to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals64%
- Warren Zaïre-Emery to score29%
- Tyler Scott Morton to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.536% probability@2.90LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- Under 3.558% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- Under 4.577% probability@1.33LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Paris Saint-Germain | X | 2 · Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | EV+ 0% 1.45 | 5.00 | 5.75 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Lyon win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 6.50 to 5.75 (−12%).
1+5 %
70 %65 %
1.38 → 1.45
X-7 %
20 %15 %
5.40 → 5.00
2-12 %
17 %12 %
6.50 → 5.75
Over 2,5+4 %
71 %66 %
1.33 → 1.38
LeoVegas · 40 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesParis Saint-Germain 3Draw 0Lyon 1
Goals: 10–7 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Paris Saint-Germain come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Paris Saint-Germain have scored in 27 consecutive league matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain win 78% of their home matches all-time (36 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain (14–9)
Lyon (13–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Paris Saint-Germain | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 14 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 12.3 |
| xG per match | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 0.99 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Playing style | Paris Saint-Germain | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.79 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 0.92 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 0.95 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 20 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.86 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.8 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 645 | 410 |
| Passes against per match | 275 | 388 |
| Switches of play per match | 55.6 | 36.6 |
| Long balls per match | 54 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Paris Saint-Germain | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 1.9 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.31 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Other | Paris Saint-Germain | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Matvey Safonov (Paris Saint-Germain) | Dominik Greif (Lyon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 18 |
| Save % | 69% | 82% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 72% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon according to our model?
The model gives Paris Saint-Germain a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paris Saint-Germain 69%, draw 18%, Lyon 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?
The model expects 2.37 goals (xG) for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.92 for Lyon, 3.29 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Paris Saint-Germain or draw (1X) 87%, Lyon or draw (X2) 31% and no draw (12) 82%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.