01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Lens to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Ligue 1Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens9°15,2 mm38 km/h
Läs på svenska
LensPossession controlvs
Paris FCBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Lens (46%)
Lens vs Paris FC · Ligue 1
1 · Lens 46%X 26%28% Paris FC · 2
46%
26%
28%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lens vs Paris FC (Ligue 1, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Lens win 46%, draw 26%, Paris FC win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Lens 1.57, Paris FC 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Lens or draw 72%, Paris FC or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lens – Paris FC
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: The odds are intriguing for this clash between Lens and Paris FC, especially considering the robust home record of the hosts. Lens boasts a 62% win rate at home all-time (37 matches played), but the current campaign tells a slightly different story. Despite their superior historical record, they've stumbled out of the gate with just 10 points compared to Paris FC's 14. This discrepancy is mirrored in the xPoints as well, which favor the visitors, 12.2 to 9.8.
With a playing style that leans heavily on possession control, Lens will look to dictate the rhythm, but Paris FC’s balanced and physical approach could disrupt this plan, especially in wet conditions that tend to suppress scoring. The expected goals suggest a tight contest: Lens sits at 1.57 and Paris FC at 1.34, reflecting a slender advantage for the home side. Notably, the expectation for both teams to score is a decent 59%, though the rain could temper this.
Despite Lens emerging victorious in their two head-to-head meetings since 2022, the sample size is too small to outweigh current form and underlying metrics, where Paris FC shows a clear edge. Their defensive solidity, with an xGA of just 1.0 compared to Lens’s 1.4, might be the decisive factor in this matchup.
The market offers some compelling value on the hosts with odds of 2.35 at Betsafe and Nordicbet, presenting a 9% edge based on model probability. For those inclined to take a calculated risk, this could be the angle, as the model still leans towards a Lens victory. However, given the conditions and current form, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline. The over 2.5 goals market, at 56%, suggests moderate confidence, but the damp conditions might tilt this towards the under. If you're looking to back Lens, the value at Betsafe and Nordicbet stands out, but be prepared for a potentially low-scoring affair.
LensForm LDLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #8xT #2xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Florian SotocaLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.00
- Florian Tristán Mariano ThauvinRWxG 0.49 · xT 0.45
- Ismaelo GaniouCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
Paris FCForm WDWLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #2xT #7xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Adama Mohamed CamaraRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Ilan KebbalRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
- Maxime LopezCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Lens – Paris FC
Predicted score matrix
Paris FC →
Lens →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–16.9%
0–24.9%
0–32.2%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.2%
1–111.8%
1–27.7%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.5%
2
2–06.7%
2–19.0%
2–26.0%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.5%
3–14.7%
3–23.2%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,57–1,34
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.22
Over 2,556%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Lens to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Abdallah Dipo Sima to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Abdallah Dipo Sima to score35%
- Diego Coppola to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Lens46% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Lens46% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds
- 1 · Lens46% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lens | X | 2 · Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 9% 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 9% 2.35 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 9% 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 05:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Paris FC win since 16 October — the odds have shortened from 3.20 to 2.80 (−12%).
1+13 %
48 %38 %
2.08 → 2.35
X-5 %
31 %21 %
3.75 → 3.55
2-12 %
36 %26 %
3.20 → 2.80
Over 2,5+4 %
63 %53 %
1.57 → 1.64
LeoVegas · 31 recorded price levels · 16/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesLens 2Draw 0Paris FC 0
Goals: 7–1 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Lens win 62% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lens
Paris FC
Lens (14–11)
Paris FC (12–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lens
Paris FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lens
Paris FC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lens | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 14 |
| xPoints | 9.8 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Lens | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 0.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 422 | 519 |
| Passes against per match | 388 | 466 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.2 | 19.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 24 |
| Set pieces | Lens | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.44 |
| Other | Lens | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Robin Risser (Lens) | Kevin Trapp (Paris FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 17 |
| Save % | 71% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 35% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lens vs Paris FC according to our model?
The model gives Lens a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lens 46%, draw 26%, Paris FC 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lens vs Paris FC?
The model expects 1.57 goals (xG) for Lens and 1.34 for Paris FC, 2.91 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lens or draw (1X) 72%, Paris FC or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.