01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Rennes to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals89%
Ligue 1Roazhon Park, Rennes14°10,4 mm44 km/h
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RennesBalanced & physicalvs
StrasbourgBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Rennes (63%)
Rennes vs Strasbourg · Ligue 1
1 · Rennes 63%X 19%18% Strasbourg · 2
63%
19%
18%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rennes vs Strasbourg (Ligue 1, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Rennes win 63%, draw 19%, Strasbourg win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Rennes 2.20, Strasbourg 1.53. Most likely score: 2-1 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. Double chance: Rennes or draw 82%, Strasbourg or draw 37%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Rennes – Strasbourg
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Rennes enter this matchup with a commanding 63% probability of victory from the model, reflecting their overall form and statistical edge against a Strasbourg side on a three-game losing streak. The hosts have a history of capitalizing on home advantage, winning 58% of their fixtures. Their tactical balance and physicality should help them maintain dominance in possession, likely translating their superior expected goals (2.20 to Strasbourg's 1.53) into actual goals on the scoreboard.
Despite the small head-to-head sample since 2022, Rennes have clearly dominated with three wins out of four matches. While both teams share a similar playing style, the home side’s efficiency in attack should provide an upper hand. Strasbourg's attacking output is expected to struggle against Rennes’ defense, though the visitors still pose a threat, owning an xGA slightly better than that of the hosts.
The most probable scoreline, according to the model, is a 2-1 victory for Rennes, with a strong lean towards over 2.5 goals at 72%. For bettors, valuable opportunities lie in backing Rennes at 1.75 with LeoVegas, offering a 10% edge. Another intriguing angle is the over 4.5 goals market at 3.42 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, both reflecting a 9% edge.
RennesForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #17xT #3xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Abdelhamid Aït BoudlalCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
- Valentin RongierCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
- Estéban LepaulFxG 0.94 · xT 0.00
StrasbourgForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #14xT #15xP/match #17Points #14
Key players
- Ismaël Landry DoukouréCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
- Jeyland Yahir Mitchell BaltodanoCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
- Gessime YassineRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Rennes – Strasbourg
Predicted score matrix
Strasbourg →
Rennes →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.6%
0–13.4%
0–22.8%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–05.0%
1–18.3%
1–26.2%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–05.8%
2–18.9%
2–26.8%
2–33.5%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–04.2%
3–16.5%
3–25.0%
3–32.6%
3–4+1.4%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–16.0%
4+–24.6%
4+–32.4%
4+–4+1.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-19%
- 2.1-18%
- 3.2-27%
- 4.3-17%
- 5.1-26%
Expected goals
2,20–1,53
Both teams to score
70%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,70
18%
217%
321%
419%
5+32%
Under 2,528%
@2.91
Over 2,572%
@1.42EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Rennes to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals72%
- Issa Soumaré to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score70%
- Over 2.5 goals72%
- Issa Soumaré to score23%
- Pape Demba Diop to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Rennes63% probability@1.75LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
- Over 4.532% probability@3.42BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
- Over 4.532% probability@3.42NordicbetEV+9%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rennes | X | 2 · Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 8% 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.05 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 10% 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 8% 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.62 | 4.49 | 4.54 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRennes 3Draw 0Strasbourg 1
Goals: 9–4 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 1 data since 2022.
Key facts
- Strasbourg have lost 3 in a row.
- Rennes win 58% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rennes
Strasbourg
Rennes (15–14)
Strasbourg (12–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rennes
Strasbourg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rennes
Strasbourg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rennes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 7 |
| xPoints | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Rennes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 408 | 374 |
| Passes against per match | 393 | 473 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.2 | 19 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Rennes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 2.1 |
| Corners against per match | 6.2 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.42 |
| Other | Rennes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Brice Samba (Rennes) | Filip Jørgensen (Strasbourg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 29 |
| Save % | 66% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 42% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rennes vs Strasbourg according to our model?
The model gives Rennes a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rennes 63%, draw 19%, Strasbourg 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 72% and under at 28%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 70% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rennes vs Strasbourg?
The model expects 2.20 goals (xG) for Rennes and 1.53 for Strasbourg, 3.74 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rennes or draw (1X) 82%, Strasbourg or draw (X2) 37% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.