01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Toulouse to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Ligue 1Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse15°0,3 mm21 km/h
Läs på svenska
ToulousePossession control0–0
TroyesPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Toulouse (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Troyes @ 6.28 (+78 %)
Toulouse vs Troyes · Ligue 1
1 · Toulouse 47%X 25%28% Troyes · 2
47%
25%
28%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Toulouse vs Troyes (Ligue 1, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Toulouse win 47%, draw 25%, Troyes win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Toulouse 1.75, Troyes 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Toulouse or draw 72%, Troyes or draw 53%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Toulouse – Troyes
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Troyes' five-match losing streak looms large over their predicament as they face Toulouse, whose model probability of victory sits at an assertive 47%. The home side's calculated edge in expected points and goals—1.75 to 1.32 xG—further sharpens the focus on their superiority. Despite Troyes' high press and possession style, their recent performances have failed to yield dividends, suggesting a tough outing ahead at Toulouse.
The most likely outcomes, notably 1-1 and 2-1, suggest a match that leans toward a narrow home win with an edge for both teams to find the net, as indicated by the 61% probability. Yet, the 59% chance for over 2.5 goals, tempered by the expected rain, introduces a slight caution to the goal outlook. The weather could suppress any free-flowing play, keeping the scoreline tighter than the model might otherwise suggest.
For those eyeing potential value, Troyes at 5.25 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, or 5.0 with LeoVegas, emerge as intriguing long shots. Despite their poor form, the model’s assessment at a 28% win probability offers a substantial edge, making it a calculated risk for the bold punter seeking a high-reward scenario amidst the odds against Troyes.
ToulouseForm LDWDW
League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #10xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Ilyas AziziFxG 0.17 · xT 0.09
- Cristian Sleiker Cásseres Yepes Jr.CDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.30
- Rasmus NicolaisenCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.02
TroyesForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #5xP/match #14Points #17
Key players
- Antoine MilleCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.20
- Dermane KarimCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.08
- Adrien MonfrayCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Final score
0 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Toulouse 47% · Draw 25% · Troyes 28%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - TroyesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 16,33fair 11,04+48 %
MissMatchresultat - ToulouseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 3,94fair 6,25-37 %
MissMatch prediction: Toulouse – Troyes
Predicted score matrix
Troyes →
Toulouse →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–15.8%
0–24.0%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–07.8%
1–111.1%
1–27.1%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–07.1%
2–19.4%
2–26.2%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–04.2%
3–15.5%
3–23.6%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–13.6%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,75–1,32
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,541%
@2.47EV+1%
Over 2,559%
@1.57
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Toulouse to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ilyas Azizi to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Ilyas Azizi to score33%
- Mouhamed Diop to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Troyes28% probability@6.28PinnacleEV+78%reference odds
- 2 · Troyes28% probability@6.10BetsafeEV+73%reference odds
- 2 · Troyes28% probability@6.10NordicbetEV+73%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Toulouse | X | 2 · Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.48 | EV+ 12% 4.50 | EV+ 73% 6.10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.52 | EV+ 15% 4.60 | EV+ 63% 5.75 |
| Nordicbet | 1.48 | EV+ 12% 4.50 | EV+ 73% 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | EV+ 15% 4.60 | EV+ 78% 6.28 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Toulouse win since 23 October — the odds have shortened from 1.60 to 1.52 (−5%).
1-5 %
64 %59 %
1.60 → 1.52
X+5 %
24 %19 %
4.38 → 4.60
2+22 %
20 %15 %
5.13 → 6.28
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Troyes have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Toulouse
Troyes
Toulouse (12–11)
Troyes (5–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Toulouse
Troyes
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Toulouse
Troyes
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Toulouse | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 4 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Toulouse | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 435 | 297 |
| Passes against per match | 432 | 527 |
| Switches of play per match | 26 | 30.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Toulouse | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 7.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| Other | Toulouse | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.65 |
| The goalkeepers | Guillaume Restes (Toulouse) | Patrick Thomas Beach (Troyes) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 17 | 17 |
| Save % | 74% | 53% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Toulouse vs Troyes according to our model?
The model gives Toulouse a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Toulouse 47%, draw 25%, Troyes 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Troyes?
The model expects 1.75 goals (xG) for Toulouse and 1.32 for Troyes, 3.07 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Toulouse or draw (1X) 72%, Troyes or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.