Bochum vs Osnabrück: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga28 August 2026Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum21°15,2 mm22 km/h

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BochumPossession control

0–1

OsnabrückPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bochum (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Osnabrück @ 5.50 (+95 %)

1 · Bochum 37%X 27%35% Osnabrück · 2

37%

27%

35%

Analysis: Bochum – Osnabrück

Oscar Nilsson · 26 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Possession control will dictate the tempo when Bochum hosts Osnabrück, as both teams favor a style centered around maintaining the ball. Despite a slight market lean towards Bochum, this match promises to be tight. The model pegs Bochum at a 37% chance of winning, with Osnabrück not far behind at 35%. A draw sits at 27% likelihood, suggesting a finely balanced contest.

The expected goals are nearly even: 1.35 for the hosts and 1.21 for the visitors. While Bochum edges ahead in xPoints (3.0 to 2.5), Osnabrück must address their defensive frailties, conceding double the expected goals per match (2.0 xGA) compared to Bochum’s 0.98. Rain might suppress scoring, though it's already considered in the model's lean towards under 2.5 goals at 53%.

With both sides yet to demonstrate dominance, the most probable outcomes are a 1-1 draw (13%) or a narrow 1-0 win for Bochum (10%). Yet, Osnabrück's away proposition at 5.3 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet presents a striking 88% value edge, defying traditional odds.

Considering the rain and controlled possession styles, this contest could very well edge towards a low-scoring affair. Still, the real action might be on the sidelines, where savvy punters will find significant value in backing Osnabrück at those generous odds, despite them being slight underdogs on paper.

Bochum

Form DDWLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #4xT #9xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Philipp HofmannFxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
Berkan TazCAMxG 0.14 · xT 0.45
Maximilian WittekLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.21

Osnabrück

Form LL

League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #7xP/match #12Points #18

Key players

Ismail BadjieFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
David KopaczCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
Konrad Johannes Karl FaberFxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Final score

0 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bochum 37% · Draw 27% · Osnabrück 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - VfL 1899 OsnabruckBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 17,31fair 13,35+30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bochum – Osnabrück

Predicted score matrix

Osnabrück →

Bochum →

0–08.1%

0–19.0%

0–25.6%

0–32.3%

0–4+0.9%

1–010.1%

1–113.0%

1–27.6%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.2%

2–07.1%

2–18.5%

2–25.1%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.2%

3–13.8%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.4%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,35–1,21

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@2.35EV+25%

Over 2,547%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Bochum or draw (1X)67%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Bochum or draw (1X)67%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Mats Henry Pannewig to score14%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Robin Maximilian Meißner to score22%
Cajetan Lenz to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Osnabrück35% probability@5.50Bet365EV+95%reference odds
2 · Osnabrück35% probability@5.30BetsafeEV+88%reference odds
2 · Osnabrück35% probability@5.30BetssonEV+88%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bochum	X	2 · Osnabrück
Bet365	1.50	EV+ 15% 4.20	EV+ 95% 5.50
Betsafe	1.50	EV+ 14% 4.15	EV+ 88% 5.30
Betsson	1.50	EV+ 14% 4.15	EV+ 88% 5.30
Nordicbet	1.50	EV+ 14% 4.15	EV+ 88% 5.30
Pinnacle	1.80	EV+ 10% 4.00	EV+ 55% 4.38

Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:29

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Osnabrück win since 22 August — the odds have shortened from 4.92 to 4.38 (−11%).

1+9 %

58 %53 %

1.65 → 1.80

X-3 %

26 %21 %

4.11 → 4.00

2-11 %

23 %18 %

4.92 → 4.38

Over 2,5-1 %

58 %53 %

1.72 → 1.70

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bochum

Osnabrück

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bochum (1–1)

Osnabrück (3–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bochum

Osnabrück

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bochum

Osnabrück

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bochum	Osnabrück
Points	3	0
xPoints	3	2.5
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	0.98	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.08	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.4

Playing style	Bochum	Osnabrück
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.44	0.45
xT per match	0.97	1.1
xTA per match	0.58	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	28	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	10	17
Pass completion %	0.71	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.65
Passes per match	334	293
Passes against per match	342	435
Switches of play per match	24.6	13.2
Long balls per match	36	31

Set pieces	Bochum	Osnabrück
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	5.5	4.5
Corners against per match	3.5	7.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.18	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.86	0.43

Other	Bochum	Osnabrück
Throw-in control	0.77	0.74

The goalkeepers	Timo Phil Horn (Bochum)	Jonas Krumrey (Osnabrück)
Saves	4	5
Save %	80%	42%
xG prevented	75%	18%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bochum

Fixtures, form & tips

Osnabrück

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bochum vs Osnabrück according to our model?

The model gives Bochum a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bochum 37%, draw 27%, Osnabrück 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.