Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction: Home win 56% (24 Oct 2026)

Bundesliga24 October 2026WWK Arena, Augsburg8°24 km/h

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AugsburgCounter-attacks & crosses

Union BerlinLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Augsburg (56%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.71 (+6 %)

1 · Augsburg 56%X 25%20% Union Berlin · 2

56%

25%

20%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Augsburg vs Union Berlin (Bundesliga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Augsburg win 56%, draw 25%, Union Berlin win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Augsburg 2.08, Union Berlin 1.03. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Augsburg or draw 80%, Union Berlin or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Augsburg – Union Berlin

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Augsburg's penchant for counter-attacking and crossing presents a sharp contrast to Union Berlin's low defensive block and direct approach. The data leans towards the hosts capitalizing on their attacking edge, reflected in a favorable 56% win probability. With an expected goals tally of 2.08, Augsburg seems poised to exploit Union Berlin's defensive vulnerabilities.

Despite the small sample size of four head-to-head meetings since 2022, where Augsburg has managed just one win, their current form and expected goals metrics suggest a more promising outlook for the hosts. Augsburg’s 2.1 xG per match stands in stark relief against Union Berlin's 1.3, underlining their superior firepower. While Union's defense has been slightly tighter, allowing 2.0 xGA compared to Augsburg’s 2.6, the attacking prowess of the home side may prove decisive.

The model pegs a 2-1 scoreline as one of the most likely outcomes, underscoring the expectation for goals, with a 60% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals. Yet, the 10% likelihood of a 2-0 result also suggests the possibility of a more controlled affair.

For the betting strategist, there are two clear angles. With a 56% probability, Augsburg's victory at odds of 1.9 with LeoVegas offers a 6% edge. Meanwhile, the under 2.5 goals market, priced at 2.65 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, presents a 5% edge for those inclined to a more conservative view on goal count, even though it runs counter to the model's 60% expectation of over 2.5 goals. Both bets are grounded in statistical reasoning rather than speculation.

Augsburg

Form WDLDL

League ranking xG #5xGA #18xT #5xP/match #10Points #11

Key players

Anton KadeFxG 0.52 · xT 0.46
Michael GregoritschFxG 0.75 · xT 0.05
Arijon IbrahimovicFxG 0.33 · xT 0.13

Union Berlin

Form LLLWD

League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #13xP/match #12Points #17

Key players

Leopold QuerfeldCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
Tom RotheLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
Josip JuranovicRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Augsburg – Union Berlin

Predicted score matrix

Union Berlin →

Augsburg →

0–04.7%

0–14.3%

0–22.4%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–08.9%

1–19.8%

1–24.9%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.6%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.7%

3–16.9%

3–23.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–05.6%

4+–15.8%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-110%
3.2-010%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,08–1,03

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.65EV+5%

Over 2,560%

@1.49

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Augsburg to win56%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Augsburg to win56%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Michael Gregoritsch to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Michael Gregoritsch to score32%
András Schäfer to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.562% probability@1.71PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
1 · Augsburg56% probability@1.90LeoVegasEV+6%reference odds
Under 2.540% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Augsburg	X	2 · Union Berlin
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.82	3.90	3.85
LeoVegas	EV+ 6% 1.90	3.95	3.70
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.82	3.90	3.85
Pinnacle	EV+ 3% 1.85	EV+ 2% 4.10	3.88

Odds updated 23 Oct, 18:36

Odds movement

1+1 %

54 %49 %

1.84 → 1.85

X-1 %

26 %21 %

4.16 → 4.10

2-1 %

27 %22 %

3.92 → 3.88

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Augsburg 1Draw 1Union Berlin 2

Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Augsburg

Union Berlin

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Augsburg (16–12)

Union Berlin (5–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Augsburg

Union Berlin

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Augsburg

Union Berlin

The teams in numbers

Performance	Augsburg	Union Berlin
Points	8	5
xPoints	7.8	7.4
xG per match	2.1	1.3
xGA per match	2.6	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.49	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.49	0.33

Playing style	Augsburg	Union Berlin
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.29	0.34
xT per match	1.5	0.94
xTA per match	2	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	23	30
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.24
Entries into the box per match	14	12
Entries into the box against	21	17
Pass completion %	0.72	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.64
Passes per match	289	279
Passes against per match	459	406
Switches of play per match	18.4	21.7
Long balls per match	24	30

Set pieces	Augsburg	Union Berlin
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	5.9	4
Corners against per match	6.7	5.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.54

Other	Augsburg	Union Berlin
Throw-in control	0.65	0.73

The goalkeepers	Finn Dahmen (Augsburg)	Frederik Ronnow (Union Berlin)
Saves	34	22
Save %	74%	61%
xG prevented	60%	40%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Augsburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Union Berlin

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Augsburg vs Union Berlin according to our model?

The model gives Augsburg a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Augsburg 56%, draw 25%, Union Berlin 20%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?

The model expects 2.08 goals (xG) for Augsburg and 1.03 for Union Berlin, 3.12 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Augsburg or draw (1X) 80%, Union Berlin or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.