Bundesliga9°6,1 mm28 km/h

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    PaderbornPaderbornCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Hamburger SVHamburger SVLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Paderborn (46%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.94 (+23 %)

    Paderborn vs Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

    1 · Paderborn 46%X 28%26% Hamburger SV · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Paderborn vs Hamburger SV (Bundesliga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Paderborn win 46%, draw 28%, Hamburger SV win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Paderborn 1.49, Hamburger SV 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Paderborn or draw 74%, Hamburger SV or draw 54%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Paderborn – Hamburger SV

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The starkest number here is Paderborn's 46% win probability against Hamburger SV's slender 26%, tilting the scales towards the hosts. Despite the visitors' three-game winning streak, the model sees Paderborn as the more likely victor. Their expected goals (xG) of 1.49 underscores a slightly sharper attacking edge compared to Hamburg's 1.20. Meanwhile, Paderborn's defensive solidity, reflected by a lower expected goals against (xGA) of 1.8 versus Hamburg's 2.2, gives them an edge on that side of the ball too.

    This encounter is poised to be tight, with a 13% likelihood for a 1-1 draw appearing as the most probable scoreline. Yet, the model also leans slightly towards a 1-0 scenario favoring the home side. With both teams inclined to score (54%), and an even split on the over/under 2.5 goals, the suggested outcome circles back to a low-scoring affair. Rainy conditions with 6.1 mm expected could suppress ambitions further, already factored into the projections.

    For bettors seeking value, the under 1.5 goals market sticks out. Specifically, bookies like Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.97, presenting a substantial edge of 24% as per the model. This underlines a savvy bet for those eyeing the underdog potential of a subdued scoring contest.

    PaderbornPaderborn
    Form LLWLD
    League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #17xP/match #14Points #16
    Key players
    • Laurin CurdaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.28
    • Tjark SchellerCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.03
    • Mattes HansenCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
    Hamburger SVHamburger SV
    Form LLWWW
    League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #16xP/match #16Points #9
    Key players
    • Miro MuheimLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
    • Yussuf PoulsenFxG 0.48 · xT 0.11
    • Albert Sambi LokongaCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09

    Match prediction: Paderborn – Hamburger SV

    Predicted score matrix

    Hamburger SV →
    Paderborn →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.2%
    0–17.8%
    0–24.9%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.8%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–112.5%
    1–27.3%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.1%
    2
    2–07.6%
    2–19.0%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–14.5%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.3%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.2-08%
    Expected goals
    1,49–1,20
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,550%
    @2.41EV+20%
    Over 2,550%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Paderborn to win46%
    • Under 3.5 goals72%

    Combined probability

    30%

    Fair odds

    3.32

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Paderborn to win46%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Rayan Philippe to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals50%
    • Rayan Philippe to score26%
    • Sebastiaan Bornauw to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.525% probability@4.94BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • Under 1.525% probability@4.94NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
    • Under 1.525% probability@4.90LeoVegasEV+22%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PaderbornX2 · Hamburger SV
    Betsafe2.18
    EV+ 1%
    3.55    		3.05
    LeoVegas
    EV+ 3%
    2.25
    EV+ 4%
    3.65    		3.00
    Nordicbet2.18
    EV+ 1%
    3.55    		3.05
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 1%
    2.22
    EV+ 3%
    3.63    		3.21

    Odds updated 23 Oct, 18:36

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    45 %40 %

    2.34 → 2.22

    X-3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.75 → 3.63

    2+10 %
    34 %29 %

    2.92 → 3.21

    Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Hamburger SV come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Paderborn
    Hamburger SV
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Paderborn (5–9)
    Hamburger SV (6–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Paderborn
    Mattes Hansen: 240 passningar, xT 0.66HansenTjark Scheller: 235 passningar, xT 0.08SchellerJano ter Horst: 198 passningar, xT 0.24HorstNahuel Nicolas Noll: 178 passningar, xT 0.37NollSantiago Castañeda: 150 passningar, xT -0.04CastañedaLaurin Curda: 140 passningar, xT 1.17CurdaRaphael Obermair: 137 passningar, xT 0.63ObermairGabriel Vidović: 135 passningar, xT -0.03VidovićLaurin Ulrich: 102 passningar, xT 0.09UlrichMarvin Pieringer: 63 passningar, xT -0.06PieringerStefano Marino: 43 passningar, xT 0.12Marino
    Hamburger SV
    Daniel Heuer Fernandes: 130 passningar, xT 0.34FernandesNicolai Remberg: 115 passningar, xT 0.13RembergWarmed Omari: 107 passningar, xT 0.14OmariNicolas Capaldo: 103 passningar, xT 0.26CapaldoJordan Torunarigha: 87 passningar, xT 0.11TorunarighaDavid Møller Wolfe: 83 passningar, xT 0.49WolfeZakaria El Ouahdi: 83 passningar, xT 0.08OuahdiAlbert Sambi Lokonga: 82 passningar, xT 0.1LokongaSebastiaan Bornauw: 74 passningar, xT 0.6BornauwAlbert Grønbæk Erlykke: 63 passningar, xT 0.64ErlykkeFabio Vieira: 58 passningar, xT 0.31Vieira
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Paderborn
    Mattes Hansen: 240 passningar, xT 0.66HansenTjark Scheller: 235 passningar, xT 0.08SchellerJano ter Horst: 198 passningar, xT 0.24HorstNahuel Nicolas Noll: 178 passningar, xT 0.37NollSantiago Castañeda: 150 passningar, xT -0.04CastañedaLaurin Curda: 140 passningar, xT 1.17CurdaRaphael Obermair: 137 passningar, xT 0.63ObermairGabriel Vidović: 135 passningar, xT -0.03VidovićLaurin Ulrich: 102 passningar, xT 0.09UlrichMarvin Pieringer: 63 passningar, xT -0.06PieringerStefano Marino: 43 passningar, xT 0.12Marino
    Hamburger SV
    Daniel Heuer Fernandes: 130 passningar, xT 0.34FernandesNicolai Remberg: 115 passningar, xT 0.13RembergWarmed Omari: 107 passningar, xT 0.14OmariNicolas Capaldo: 103 passningar, xT 0.26CapaldoJordan Torunarigha: 87 passningar, xT 0.11TorunarighaDavid Møller Wolfe: 83 passningar, xT 0.49WolfeZakaria El Ouahdi: 83 passningar, xT 0.08OuahdiAlbert Sambi Lokonga: 82 passningar, xT 0.1LokongaSebastiaan Bornauw: 74 passningar, xT 0.6BornauwAlbert Grønbæk Erlykke: 63 passningar, xT 0.64ErlykkeFabio Vieira: 58 passningar, xT 0.31Vieira

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePaderbornHamburger SV
    Points59
    xPoints6.56.3
    xG per match10.96
    xGA per match1.82.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.21
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.59
    Playing stylePaderbornHamburger SV
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.390.3
    xT per match0.890.89
    xTA per match1.61.7
    Won balls, offensive half2922
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.280.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.220.22
    Entries into the box per match129
    Entries into the box against2019
    Pass completion %0.740.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.7
    Passes per match367278
    Passes against per match445482
    Switches of play per match23.213.8
    Long balls per match3126
    Set piecesPaderbornHamburger SV
    xG from free kicks0.010.09
    Corners per match4.43.9
    Corners against per match6.36.1
    xG per corner0.020.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.230.3
    First touch, defensive corners %0.70.36
    OtherPaderbornHamburger SV
    Throw-in control0.860.76
    The goalkeepersNahuel Nicolas Noll (Paderborn)Daniel Heuer Fernandes (Hamburger SV)
    Saves2821
    Save %76%62%
    xG prevented62%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Paderborn
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hamburger SV
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Paderborn vs Hamburger SV according to our model?

    The model gives Paderborn a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Paderborn 46%, draw 28%, Hamburger SV 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Paderborn vs Hamburger SV?

    The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Paderborn and 1.20 for Hamburger SV, 2.68 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Paderborn or draw (1X) 74%, Hamburger SV or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 72%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.