Mainz vs Paderborn: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Bundesliga29 August 2026Mewa Arena, Mainz19°1,0 mm15 km/h

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MainzCounter-attacks & crosses

0–0

Paderborn

The model's lean: 1 · Mainz (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Paderborn @ 5.90 (+85 %)

1 · Mainz 44%X 24%31% Paderborn · 2

44%

24%

31%

Analysis: Mainz – Paderborn

Anna Karlsson · 29 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

44% is the magic number for Mainz as they prepare to host Paderborn. The model leans towards the hosts claiming victory, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 12%. While Mainz's expected goals stand at 1.54, Paderborn isn't far behind with 1.18, suggesting a competitive encounter. The small sample size of head-to-head matchups between these sides means current form and expected goals carry more weight in analysis.

The over/under 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 51%, with both teams to score sitting slightly higher at 55%. This implies a match leaning towards both sides finding the net, though not in a high-scoring fashion. With Mainz showing a slight edge, a narrow win like 1-0 or 2-1 seems plausible, but the data doesn't rule out a share of the spoils either.

Punters eyeing value should consider Paderborn at odds of 5.35 with Betsafe and Betsson, or 5.3 with Nordicbet, where the model's 31% rating creates a significant edge. Though Mainz holds the statistical upper hand, the betting value resides with the visitors, offering potentially lucrative returns for those anticipating an upset.

Mainz

Form DLWLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #9xT #7xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Sheraldo BeckerFxG 0.33 · xT 0.21
Phillip TietzFxG 0.43 · xT 0.03
Nadiem AmiriCAMxG 0.41 · xT 0.19

Paderborn

Key players

Raphael ObermairLWxG 0.00 · xT 0.27
Filip BilbijaFxG 0.51 · xT 0.02
Mika BaurCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03
Numbers from DFB-Pokal 2025

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Mainz 44% · Draw 24% · Paderborn 31%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SC Paderborn 07Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,03fair 13,92+8 %

Miss

Matchresultat - FSV MainzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,91fair 8,17-52 %

Miss

Match prediction: Mainz – Paderborn

Predicted score matrix

Paderborn →

Mainz →

0–06.9%

0–17.4%

0–24.6%

0–31.8%

0–4+0.7%

1–09.8%

1–112.3%

1–27.0%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.1%

2–07.8%

2–19.2%

2–25.4%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.0%

3–14.7%

3–22.8%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.2%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,54–1,18

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@2.52EV+23%

Over 2,551%

@1.54

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mainz or draw (1X)71%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mainz or draw (1X)71%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Phillip Tietz to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Phillip Tietz to score32%
Santiago Castañeda to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Paderborn31% probability@5.90PinnacleEV+85%reference odds
2 · Paderborn31% probability@5.85BetssonEV+84%reference odds
2 · Paderborn31% probability@5.80BetsafeEV+82%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mainz	X	2 · Paderborn
Betsafe	1.50	EV+ 4% 4.30	EV+ 82% 5.80
Betsson	1.52	EV+ 4% 4.30	EV+ 84% 5.85
Nordicbet	1.50	EV+ 4% 4.30	EV+ 82% 5.80
Pinnacle	1.55	EV+ 11% 4.56	EV+ 85% 5.90

Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Mainz win since 22 August — the odds have shortened from 1.67 to 1.55 (−7%).

1-7 %

64 %54 %

1.67 → 1.55

X+13 %

27 %17 %

4.04 → 4.56

2+26 %

23 %13 %

4.70 → 5.90

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mainz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Mainz (44–53)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mainz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mainz

The goalkeepers	Daniel Batz (Mainz)	Paderborn
Saves	71	–
Save %	73%	–
xG prevented	48%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Mainz

Fixtures, form & tips

Paderborn

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mainz vs Paderborn according to our model?

The model gives Mainz a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mainz 44%, draw 24%, Paderborn 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.