Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

J1 League29 August 2026IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka16°15 km/h

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Shimizu S-PulseLow block & direct

0–1

Kashiwa ReysolBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Kashiwa Reysol (42%)Best value by the model: 1 · Shimizu S-Pulse @ 4.48 (+25 %)

1 · Shimizu S-Pulse 28%X 30%42% Kashiwa Reysol · 2

28%

30%

42%

Analysis: Shimizu S-Pulse – Kashiwa Reysol

Anna Karlsson · 27 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Kashiwa Reysol's remarkable nine-match winning streak is the focal point as they prepare to face Shimizu S-Pulse. With such momentum, the visitors have clearly established themselves as formidable contenders in the J1 League. This streak is underpinned by their ability to find the back of the net in ten consecutive league matches, showcasing a consistency that Shimizu simply hasn't been able to match. The home side's direct style could pose some threats, but they'll need more than just grit to halt Reysol's current form.

Despite the visitors' recent dominance, the margins aren't as wide as they appear. The expected goals (xG) suggest a tighter contest, with Reysol holding only a slight edge at 1.34 compared to Shimizu's 1.16. This is reflected in the most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13%, hinting at a competitive encounter. Shimizu's underlying numbers, like their lower expected goals against (xGA) of 0.83 per match, suggest a defense capable of holding its ground, even if recent head-to-head encounters have favored Kashiwa.

The small sample size of their head-to-head record since 2023, with Reysol winning both matches, should be weighed lightly compared to the current form and expected goals. Shimizu's ability to strike quickly after gaining possession, as evidenced by their 0.13 xG within 8 seconds, might catch the visitors off guard. However, Reysol's slightly superior 0.14 in the same metric suggests they can respond in kind.

Given Kashiwa Reysol's winning form, they are rightly favored at odds of 42% to take the win, with 0-1 at 11% as a likely scoreline. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 46%, indicating a lean towards a lower-scoring affair.

Shimizu S-Pulse

Form LLWLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #9xP/match #4Points #15

Key players

Se-Hun OhFxG 0.71 · xT 0.09
Koya KitagawaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.17
Yudai ShimamotoRWxG 0.30 · xT -0.13

Kashiwa Reysol

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #14xP/match #6Points #3

Key players

Koki KumasakaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Tojiro KuboRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.03
Yoshio KoizumiRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.07

Final score

0 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Shimizu S-Pulse 28% · Draw 30% · Kashiwa Reysol 42%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Shimizu S-PulseBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,56fair 14,44+1 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Kashiwa ReysolBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,68fair 10,89-39 %

Miss

Match prediction: Shimizu S-Pulse – Kashiwa Reysol

Predicted score matrix

Kashiwa Reysol →

Shimizu S-Pulse →

0–08.5%

0–110.6%

0–27.4%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.1%

1–113.1%

1–28.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.5%

2–17.4%

2–25.0%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.1%

3–12.9%

3–21.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.1-29%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,16–1,34

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.84

Over 2,546%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kashiwa Reysol or draw (X2)68%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Tojiro Kubo to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Tojiro Kubo to score22%
Zento Uno to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Shimizu S-Pulse28% probability@4.48PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.73PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
1 · Shimizu S-Pulse28% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Shimizu S-Pulse	X	2 · Kashiwa Reysol
Betsafe	EV+ 11% 3.95	EV+ 0% 3.35	1.85
Betsson	EV+ 11% 3.95	EV+ 0% 3.35	1.85
Nordicbet	EV+ 11% 3.95	EV+ 0% 3.35	1.85
Pinnacle	EV+ 25% 4.48	EV+ 11% 3.73	1.82

Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Kashiwa Reysol win since 23 August — the odds have shortened from 2.19 to 1.82 (−17%).

1+33 %

30 %20 %

3.38 → 4.48

X+13 %

32 %22 %

3.31 → 3.73

2-17 %

53 %43 %

2.19 → 1.82

Over 2,50 %

52 %42 %

2.04 → 2.04

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Shimizu S-Pulse 0Draw 0Kashiwa Reysol 2

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.

Key facts

Kashiwa Reysol come into this round on 9 straight wins.
Kashiwa Reysol have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Shimizu S-Pulse

Kashiwa Reysol

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Shimizu S-Pulse (1–2)

Kashiwa Reysol (9–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Shimizu S-Pulse

Kashiwa Reysol

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Shimizu S-Pulse

Kashiwa Reysol

The teams in numbers

Performance	Shimizu S-Pulse	Kashiwa Reysol
Points	3	9
xPoints	5.6	5.1
xG per match	1.4	1.4
xGA per match	0.83	0.91
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.04	0.08

Playing style	Shimizu S-Pulse	Kashiwa Reysol
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.3	0.75
xT per match	1.1	0.92
xTA per match	1	0.78
Won balls, offensive half	30	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.2
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.18
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	13	7
Pass completion %	0.6	0.87
Pass completion % under pressure	0.57	0.79
Passes per match	192	653
Passes against per match	428	366
Switches of play per match	18.6	41.7
Long balls per match	27	35

Set pieces	Shimizu S-Pulse	Kashiwa Reysol
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	6.7	4.7
Corners against per match	8.4	3.4
xG per corner	0.02	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.86
First touch, defensive corners %	0.64	0.89

Other	Shimizu S-Pulse	Kashiwa Reysol
Throw-in control	0.62	0.74

The goalkeepers	Togo Umeda (Shimizu S-Pulse)	Ryosuke Kojima (Kashiwa Reysol)
Saves	12	7
Save %	86%	64%
xG prevented	88%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Shimizu S-Pulse

Fixtures, form & tips

Kashiwa Reysol

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol according to our model?

The model gives Kashiwa Reysol a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Shimizu S-Pulse 28%, draw 30%, Kashiwa Reysol 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.