01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Kashima Antlers to win50%
- Under 3.5 goals80%
J1 LeagueAjinomoto Stadium, Tokyo22°13,0 mm5 km/h
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Tokyo VerdyLow block & direct0–2
Kashima AntlersBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Kashima Antlers (50%)
Tokyo Verdy – Kashima Antlers · J1 League
1 · Tokyo Verdy 21%X 29%50% Kashima Antlers · 2
21%
29%
50%
Analysis: Tokyo Verdy – Kashima Antlers
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
In their last four encounters, Kashima Antlers have had the upper hand against Tokyo Verdy, with two wins to the hosts' one. Yet, this head-to-head sample is too small to assert any long-term dominance. The Antlers arrive at this match riding a six-game winning streak, clearly the team in form, while the hosts have struggled to find consistency.
Looking at the numbers, the model gives Kashima a 50% chance of victory, which reflects both their recent form and their slightly superior expected goals (xG) per match, 1.6 against Verdy’s 1.1. The visitors’ physical and balanced style contrasts sharply with Verdy’s more direct and defensively vulnerable approach. Despite that, the expected goals against (xGA) are identical for both teams at 1.2, indicating that while Kashima can create more, both squads share similar defensive frailties.
The expected goal tally and wet weather imply a low-scoring contest, with the model suggesting only a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals. While both teams to score is at 46%, the most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 0-1 underline a tight affair. Rain might further dampen attacking prospects, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals lean already baked into the odds.
Kashima Antlers stand out as the model's favoured side, with their form and statistical edge making them the pick in this matchup, even if the margin might be narrow. The numbers suggest a 0-1 away victory, aligning with the visitors' prowess and Verdy's struggle for breakthroughs.
Tokyo VerdyForm LLDLD
League ranking xG #15xGA #9xT #17xP/match #10Points #17
Key players
- Itsuki SomenoFxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
- Shuhei MizoguchiLWxG 0.40 · xT 0.06
- Naoki HayashiCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.00
Kashima AntlersForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #8xT #10xP/match #12Points #2
Key players
- Leo CearaFxG 0.71 · xT 0.13
- Ryoya OgawaLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Yuma SuzukiFxG 0.10 · xT 0.04
Final score
0 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Tokyo Verdy 21% · Draw 29% · Kashima Antlers 50%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Tokyo VerdyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 18,23fair 22,21-18 %
MissMatchresultat - Kashima AntlersBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,29fair 11,87-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Tokyo Verdy – Kashima Antlers
Predicted score matrix
Kashima Antlers →
Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.5%
0–113.0%
0–28.9%
0–34.0%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–09.3%
1–113.3%
1–28.6%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–04.7%
2–16.2%
2–24.1%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.0%
3–21.3%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-113%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.0-29%
Expected goals
0,96–1,33
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
320%
412%
5+8%
Under 2,560%
@1.55
Over 2,540%
@2.30
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Kashima Antlers to win50%
- Under 2.5 goals60%
- Yuma Suzuki to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals40%
- Yuma Suzuki to score32%
- Kosuke Saito to be booked18%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tokyo Verdy | X | 2 · Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.20 | 3.05 | 1.90 |
| Betsson | 4.20 | 3.05 | 1.90 |
| Nordicbet | 4.20 | 3.05 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 4.40 | 3.21 | 2.00 |
Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Tokyo Verdy win since 22 August — the odds have shortened from 4.92 to 4.40 (−11%).
1-11 %
25 %15 %
4.92 → 4.40
X-3 %
34 %24 %
3.31 → 3.21
2+10 %
56 %46 %
1.81 → 2.00
Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesTokyo Verdy 1Draw 1Kashima Antlers 2
Goals: 5–9 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on J1 League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Kashima Antlers come into this round on 6 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tokyo Verdy
Kashima Antlers
Tokyo Verdy (2–4)
Kashima Antlers (9–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tokyo Verdy
Kashima Antlers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tokyo Verdy
Kashima Antlers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tokyo Verdy | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 2 | 9 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.45 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Tokyo Verdy | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.23 | 0.61 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 0.76 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 273 | 433 |
| Passes against per match | 536 | 301 |
| Switches of play per match | 8 | 28 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Tokyo Verdy | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 2.7 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.5 |
| Other | Tokyo Verdy | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Matheus Caldeira Vidotto de Oliveria (Tokyo Verdy) | Tomoki Hayakawa (Kashima Antlers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 7 |
| Save % | 69% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Nagoya Grampus – Fagiano Okayama29 August 2026
- Urawa Reds – Yokohama F. Marinos29 August 2026
- Kyoto Sanga – Avispa Fukuoka29 August 2026
- V-Varen Nagasaki – FC Tokyo29 August 2026
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- Shimizu S-Pulse – Kashiwa Reysol29 August 2026
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima Antlers according to our model?
The model gives Kashima Antlers a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tokyo Verdy 21%, draw 29%, Kashima Antlers 50%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.