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    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    2–1
    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    The model's lean: 1 · Albirex Niigata (38%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.30 (+4 %)

    Albirex Niigata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · J2 League

    1 · Albirex Niigata 38%X 31%31% Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo · 2

    Analysis: Albirex Niigata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    1-1. This scoreline appears to be the most probable outcome in the clash between Albirex Niigata and Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo, with a 13% probability. The model strongly leans towards Albirex Niigata, assigning them a 38% chance of victory, which edges out Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo and the draw, both pegged at 31%. But it's the expected goals — Albirex Niigata at 1.29 and Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo at 1.06 — that truly highlight a tight affair, hinting at a match likely to be defined by fine margins rather than a free-flowing shootout.

    Albirex Niigata have a slight edge here, and with the most likely scoreline being a low-scoring draw or a narrow win, it puts the spotlight on their ability to capitalize on the smallest of opportunities. The model's lean towards Albirex Niigata suggests they may just have the slight tactical or form advantage to eke out a victory, potentially through a 1-0 win, which carries a 12% probability. But given the likelihoods, a draw should not be ruled out lightly.

    With 42% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score, the numbers lean towards a more conservative outing. This is bolstered by the expected goals figures, which point to a cautious affair rather than an end-to-end spectacle. The match could very well be influenced by strategic discipline and defensive resilience rather than offensive prowess.

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo will have their work cut out in breaking through Albirex Niigata's setup, especially if the weather throws a wrench into proceedings. Rain and strong wind are notorious for stifling attacking flair, and if such conditions arise, it could further suppress the goal tally, already suggested by the model.

    The sharpest betting angle comes with the under 1.5 goals market, where Betfair Exchange is offering odds of 3.3. The model rates this outcome at 31%, indicating a valuable edge for those looking to capitalize on the data. Given the defensive inclinations and potential weather influence, this market presents a compelling opportunity.

    Albirex NiigataAlbirex Niigata
    Form L
    Key players
    • Kakeru FunakiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    • Tetsuya KatoLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
    • Yudai FujiwaraCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Form LWDWW
    Key players
    • Amadou BakayokoFxG 0.31 · xT -0.04
    • Tomoki TakamineCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    • Supachok SarachatFxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
    Final score
    2 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Albirex Niigata 38% · Draw 31% · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 31%

    Match prediction: Albirex Niigata – Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo

    Predicted score matrix

    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo →
    Albirex Niigata →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.9%
    0–19.7%
    0–25.3%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–011.9%
    1–113.4%
    1–26.9%
    1–32.4%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.9%
    2–18.4%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–13.6%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,29–1,06
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.68
    Over 2,542%
    @2.18

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Albirex Niigata or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Yamato Wakatsuki to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Yamato Wakatsuki to score26%
    • Ryunosuke Umetsu to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.531% probability@3.30Betfair ExchangeEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Albirex NiigataX2 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Betfair Exchange1.091.091.09
    Pinnacle2.473.013.10

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:21

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    41 %36 %

    2.39 → 2.47

    X-4 %
    33 %28 %

    3.13 → 3.01

    2+6 %
    34 %29 %

    2.92 → 3.10

    Over 2,5+6 %
    47 %42 %

    2.05 → 2.18

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Albirex Niigata
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Albirex Niigata (0–1)
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo (2–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Albirex Niigata
    Kakeru Funaki: 58 passningar, xT 0.08FunakiTetsuya Kato: 54 passningar, xT 0.17KatoYudai Fujiwara: 51 passningar, xT 0.1FujiwaraSoya Fujiwara: 47 passningar, xT 0.1FujiwaraRyosuke Maeda: 32 passningar, xT -0.03MaedaTaiki Arai: 22 passningar, xT 0AraiNoam Baumann: 22 passningar, xT 0.01BaumannEiji Shirai: 21 passningar, xT 0.08ShiraiYusuke Onishi: 20 passningar, xT 0.06OnishiKanji Kuwayama: 17 passningar, xT 0.04KuwayamaKazuyoshi Shimabuku: 10 passningar, xT -0.01Shimabuku
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Ryunosuke Umetsu: 59 passningar, xT 0.03UmetsuShota Nishino: 50 passningar, xT 0.03NishinoRyu Takao: 44 passningar, xT 0.14TakaoTomoki Tagawa: 39 passningar, xT 0.04TagawaMin-Gyu Park: 38 passningar, xT 0.15ParkYuto Horigome: 24 passningar, xT 0.06HorigomeKaito Konomi: 23 passningar, xT 0.04KonomiTeerapat Pruetong: 19 passningar, xT 0.38PruetongShuma Kido: 13 passningar, xT 0.13KidoHiroki Miyazawa: 11 passningar, xT 0.04MiyazawaShoji Toyama: 9 passningar, xT 0.09Toyama
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Albirex Niigata
    Kakeru Funaki: 58 passningar, xT 0.08FunakiTetsuya Kato: 54 passningar, xT 0.17KatoYudai Fujiwara: 51 passningar, xT 0.1FujiwaraSoya Fujiwara: 47 passningar, xT 0.1FujiwaraRyosuke Maeda: 32 passningar, xT -0.03MaedaTaiki Arai: 22 passningar, xT 0AraiNoam Baumann: 22 passningar, xT 0.01BaumannEiji Shirai: 21 passningar, xT 0.08ShiraiYusuke Onishi: 20 passningar, xT 0.06OnishiKanji Kuwayama: 17 passningar, xT 0.04KuwayamaKazuyoshi Shimabuku: 10 passningar, xT -0.01Shimabuku
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Ryunosuke Umetsu: 59 passningar, xT 0.03UmetsuShota Nishino: 50 passningar, xT 0.03NishinoRyu Takao: 44 passningar, xT 0.14TakaoTomoki Tagawa: 39 passningar, xT 0.04TagawaMin-Gyu Park: 38 passningar, xT 0.15ParkYuto Horigome: 24 passningar, xT 0.06HorigomeKaito Konomi: 23 passningar, xT 0.04KonomiTeerapat Pruetong: 19 passningar, xT 0.38PruetongShuma Kido: 13 passningar, xT 0.13KidoHiroki Miyazawa: 11 passningar, xT 0.04MiyazawaShoji Toyama: 9 passningar, xT 0.09Toyama
    The goalkeepersYudai Fujiwara (Albirex Niigata)Yuto Horigome (Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo)
    Saves41
    Save %100%100%
    xG prevented100%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Albirex Niigata
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Albirex Niigata vs Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo according to our model?

    The model gives Albirex Niigata a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Albirex Niigata 38%, draw 31%, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.