Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

J2 League15 August 202625°5,5 mm8 km/h

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Ventforet Kofu

1–1

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

The model's lean: 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (46%)

1 · Ventforet Kofu 24%X 30%46% Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 2

24%

30%

46%

Analysis: Ventforet Kofu – Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Sofia Andersson · 14 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A 46% win probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki might catch the casual observer off guard, but the numbers don't lie. This matchup against Ventforet Kofu is ripe for a decisive Miyazaki away victory. Despite the home side's tenacity, the visitors are poised to capitalize on their superior expected goals tally of 1.31 compared to Kofu's 0.86. The odds of 2.41 with Pinnacle for a Miyazaki win present a juicy 11% edge, hinting strongly at value for the astute punter.

With a small head-to-head sample available since 2023, not much weight can be assigned to their direct encounters. Instead, the focus sharpens on current form and expected goals data, both of which tilt in favor of the visitors. Kofu's attack seems unlikely to ignite, especially with the forecasted 5.5 mm of rain that tends to dampen goal-scoring exploits. The model projects a tightly contested battle, with the most probable outcome being a 0-1 narrow victory for Miyazaki.

Ventforet Kofu fans might be hopeful for their side to snatch a draw, a scenario given a 30% chance by the model, but the rainy conditions and a strong opposition suggest otherwise. The under 2.5 goals option is particularly appealing, pegged at 63% by the model and offering a 3% edge with Pinnacle at 1.628 odds. The likelihood of a goal-fest is low, with only a 37% chance of three or more goals, reinforcing an anticipated chess match rather than an end-to-end thriller.

As the teams prepare to face off, the sharp angle is clear: back Tegevajaro Miyazaki to edge this encounter in a low-scoring affair. Given the weather and form, a 0-1 scoreline is the savvy prediction, making Pinnacle's odds on a Miyazaki triumph and the under 2.5 goals stand out as the betting opportunities to seize.

Ventforet Kofu

Form LLLDL

Key players

Sho ArakiCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Kojiro YasudaCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Yuta KoideCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.12

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Form L

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Ventforet Kofu 24% · Draw 30% · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 46%

Match prediction: Ventforet Kofu – Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Predicted score matrix

Tegevajaro Miyazaki →

Ventforet Kofu →

0–011.8%

0–114.6%

0–29.8%

0–34.3%

0–4+1.9%

1–09.4%

1–113.2%

1–28.4%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–04.2%

2–15.5%

2–23.6%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.7%

3–01.2%

3–11.6%

3–21.0%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-115%
2.1-113%
3.0-012%
4.0-210%
5.1-09%

Expected goals

0,86–1,31

Both teams to score

42%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

012%

124%

227%

319%

411%

Under 2,563%

@1.61EV+2%

Over 2,537%

@2.32

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win46%
Under 3.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win46%
Under 2.5 goals63%
Yusei Toshida to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score42%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Yusei Toshida to score28%
Riku Yamauchi to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki46% probability@2.45PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
Under 2.563% probability@1.61PinnacleEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Ventforet Kofu	X	2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Pinnacle	3.09	3.11	EV+ 13% 2.45

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:21

Odds movement

1+12 %

35 %30 %

2.77 → 3.09

X-6 %

32 %27 %

3.32 → 3.11

2+3 %

40 %35 %

2.39 → 2.45

Over 2,5+6 %

44 %39 %

2.19 → 2.32

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Ventforet Kofu

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Ventforet Kofu (0–2)

Tegevajaro Miyazaki (0–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Ventforet Kofu

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Ventforet Kofu

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

The goalkeepers	Yuta Koide (Ventforet Kofu)	Kengo Kuroki (Tegevajaro Miyazaki)
Saves	3	4
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Ventforet Kofu

Fixtures, form & tips

Tegevajaro Miyazaki

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Ventforet Kofu vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki according to our model?

The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ventforet Kofu 24%, draw 30%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 42% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.