J2 League26°17,5 mm13 km/h

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    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    3–1
    Iwaki FCIwaki FC
    The model's lean: 2 · Iwaki FC (35%)Best value by the model: 1 · Fujieda MYFC @ 3.40 (+15 %)

    Fujieda MYFC vs Iwaki FC · J2 League

    1 · Fujieda MYFC 34%X 31%35% Iwaki FC · 2

    Analysis: Fujieda MYFC – Iwaki FC

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Three matches and a history that leans slightly towards Iwaki FC: the sample size is small, yet Fujieda MYFC finds themselves in a familiar bind. Both teams' form since 2023 indicates a keenly contested matchup, with the model giving Iwaki FC a slight edge in probability at 35% compared to Fujieda MYFC's 34%. The razor-thin margin showcases a classic toss-up, and with an expected goals tally of 1.12 for each side, this dance on the pitch might just be more of a tactical standoff than a fireworks display.

    Fujieda MYFC, playing at home, might feel buoyant despite the odds and the rain-soaked day, which often suppresses goal-scoring. The most likely outcomes are the stalemate at 1-1 (14%) and a marginal 0-1 loss (12%), but that elusive 1-0 win (11%) might just sneak in, especially given the value bet identified. With Pinnacle offering odds of 3.17 and an 8% edge over the model's home win probability, Fujieda MYFC appears to be the attractive option for those with a risk appetite.

    Iwaki FC, on the other hand, will fancy their chances to extend their head-to-head success. Yet, the weather might play into the home side's hands, as rain tends to level the playing field, literally and figuratively. A draw at 31% and both teams' goal-scoring probability at 46% suggest a tight affair, but the under 2.5 goals lean (39%) might see punters siding with a low-scoring outcome.

    Despite the narrow numbers, the sharpest angle here is the potential value in backing Fujieda MYFC at home. The conditions and the odds offer a tempting narrative for a savvy punter: investing in the underdog might just pay dividends in what promises to be a tactical and weather-influenced battle.

    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    Form LDDLW
    Key players
    • Shota SuzukiCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.00
    • Yuto NagaoFxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
    • Yuto NakamuraLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    Iwaki FCIwaki FC
    Form WLDWW
    Key players
    • Daiki YamaguchiFxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
    • Kaina TanimuraFxG 0.35 · xT 0.04
    • Naoki KumataFxG 0.30 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    3 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Fujieda MYFC 34% · Draw 31% · Iwaki FC 35%

    Match prediction: Fujieda MYFC – Iwaki FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Iwaki FC →
    Fujieda MYFC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.9%
    0–111.5%
    0–26.7%
    0–32.5%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–011.5%
    1–113.7%
    1–27.5%
    1–32.8%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–06.7%
    2–17.5%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–02.5%
    3–12.8%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.0%
    4+–20.6%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-114%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-011%
    4. 4.0-011%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,12–1,12
    Both teams to score
    46%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,561%
    @1.62
    Over 2,539%
    @2.30

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Iwaki FC or draw (X2)65%
    • Under 3.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.89

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Iwaki FC or draw (X2)65%
    • Under 2.5 goals61%
    • Naoki Kumata to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score46%
    • Over 2.5 goals39%
    • Naoki Kumata to score25%
    • Ryo Endo to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Fujieda MYFC34% probability@3.40PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Fujieda MYFCX2 · Iwaki FC
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 15%
    3.40    		3.132.27

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 08:20

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Iwaki FC win since 11 August — the odds have shortened from 2.42 to 2.27 (−6%).

    1+11 %
    32 %27 %

    3.05 → 3.40

    X+3 %
    33 %28 %

    3.05 → 3.13

    2-6 %
    43 %38 %

    2.42 → 2.27

    Over 2,50 %
    44 %39 %

    2.29 → 2.30

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    3 matches
    Fujieda MYFC 1Draw 0Iwaki FC 2
    Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Fujieda MYFC
    Iwaki FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Fujieda MYFC (2–0)
    Iwaki FC (2–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Fujieda MYFC
    Yuto Nagao: 24 passningar, xT 0.16NagaoUheiji Uehata: 17 passningar, xT -0.02UehataYuto Nakamura: 17 passningar, xT 0.04NakamuraYuri Mori: 16 passningar, xT 0.09MoriShota Suzuki: 14 passningar, xT 0SuzukiShun Yoshida: 14 passningar, xT 0.01YoshidaKeita Matsuda: 11 passningar, xT 0.09MatsudaTakuya Okamoto: 10 passningar, xT 0.02OkamotoMaki Kitahara: 8 passningar, xT -0.05KitaharaYusuke Kikui: 8 passningar, xT 0.07KikuiYoshikaze Tsunoda: 5 passningar, xT 0.01Tsunoda
    Iwaki FC
    Wataru Iwashita: 22 passningar, xT 0.06IwashitaSoichiro Fukaminato: 21 passningar, xT 0.18FukaminatoRyo Nishitani: 19 passningar, xT 0.19NishitaniShun Nakajima: 16 passningar, xT 0NakajimaHaruto Nakano: 16 passningar, xT 0.01NakanoDaiki Yamaguchi: 15 passningar, xT 0.19YamaguchiShota Kofie: 12 passningar, xT 0.4KofieNaoki Kumata: 11 passningar, xT -0.03KumataMasato Sasaki: 10 passningar, xT 0.03SasakiYutaka Michiwaki: 9 passningar, xT -0.06MichiwakiRyo Endo: 6 passningar, xT 0.01Endo
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Fujieda MYFC
    Yuto Nagao: 24 passningar, xT 0.16NagaoUheiji Uehata: 17 passningar, xT -0.02UehataYuto Nakamura: 17 passningar, xT 0.04NakamuraYuri Mori: 16 passningar, xT 0.09MoriShota Suzuki: 14 passningar, xT 0SuzukiShun Yoshida: 14 passningar, xT 0.01YoshidaKeita Matsuda: 11 passningar, xT 0.09MatsudaTakuya Okamoto: 10 passningar, xT 0.02OkamotoMaki Kitahara: 8 passningar, xT -0.05KitaharaYusuke Kikui: 8 passningar, xT 0.07KikuiYoshikaze Tsunoda: 5 passningar, xT 0.01Tsunoda
    Iwaki FC
    Wataru Iwashita: 22 passningar, xT 0.06IwashitaSoichiro Fukaminato: 21 passningar, xT 0.18FukaminatoRyo Nishitani: 19 passningar, xT 0.19NishitaniShun Nakajima: 16 passningar, xT 0NakajimaHaruto Nakano: 16 passningar, xT 0.01NakanoDaiki Yamaguchi: 15 passningar, xT 0.19YamaguchiShota Kofie: 12 passningar, xT 0.4KofieNaoki Kumata: 11 passningar, xT -0.03KumataMasato Sasaki: 10 passningar, xT 0.03SasakiYutaka Michiwaki: 9 passningar, xT -0.06MichiwakiRyo Endo: 6 passningar, xT 0.01Endo
    The goalkeepersShun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC)Masato Sasaki (Iwaki FC)
    Saves22
    Save %100%67%
    xG prevented100%14%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Fujieda MYFC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Iwaki FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Fujieda MYFC vs Iwaki FC according to our model?

    The model gives Iwaki FC a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fujieda MYFC 34%, draw 31%, Iwaki FC 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.