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    FC ImabariFC Imabari
    0–3
    Montedio YamagataMontedio Yamagata
    The model's lean: 1 · FC Imabari (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.03 (+19 %)

    FC Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata · J2 League

    1 · FC Imabari 41%X 33%26% Montedio Yamagata · 2

    Analysis: FC Imabari – Montedio Yamagata

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    FC Imabari enter this clash against Montedio Yamagata with a cloud over their recent performances; they have lost three consecutive matches, casting doubt on their form. Despite this, the model favors the hosts with a 41% probability of winning, indicating that their underlying metrics may not align with their recent results. The most likely outcomes suggest a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable scoreline at 13%, closely followed by a 1-0 victory for Imabari at 12%.

    The expected goals further highlight the likely defensive nature of this encounter, projecting 1.30 for Imabari and 1.03 for Montedio, underscoring the slim margins. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 41%, reflecting the cautious nature of both teams’ playstyles. The small sample size of their head-to-head encounters, just two games since 2023, offers limited insight into the dynamics of this matchup.

    Betting opportunities appear in the unders market, where value emerges for under 1.5 goals at 4.35 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model assigns a 32% likelihood to this outcome, revealing a compelling 39% edge. Embracing this angle aligns with a preference for defensively controlled scenarios, where prudent selections pay dividends.

    FC ImabariFC Imabari
    Form LDLLL
    Key players
    • Kyota MochiiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Hikaru AraiRWxG 0.34 · xT 0.22
    • Yoshiaki KomaiCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.40
    Montedio YamagataMontedio Yamagata
    Form DWWLW
    Key players
    • Akira Silvano DisaroFxG 0.69 · xT 0.04
    • Junya TakahashiCAMxG 0.54 · xT -0.14
    • Ryoma KidaCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.21
    Final score
    0 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: FC Imabari 41% · Draw 33% · Montedio Yamagata 26%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC ImabariBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,22fair 12,13-40 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Montedio YamagataBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,30fair 19,11-57 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: FC Imabari – Montedio Yamagata

    Predicted score matrix

    Montedio Yamagata →
    FC Imabari →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–010.1%
    0–19.6%
    0–25.2%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–012.3%
    1–113.4%
    1–26.7%
    1–32.3%
    1–4+0.7%
    2
    2–08.2%
    2–18.5%
    2–24.4%
    2–31.5%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–13.7%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.6%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,30–1,03
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,3
    Under 2,559%
    @2.03EV+15%
    Over 2,541%
    @1.79

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance FC Imabari or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance FC Imabari or draw (1X)71%
    • Under 2.5 goals59%
    • Yuki Kajiura to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals41%
    • Junya Takahashi to score23%
    • Gabriel Gomes Ferreira to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.559% probability@2.03PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
    • Under 1.532% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
    • Under 1.532% probability@3.70BetssonEV+18%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC ImabariX2 · Montedio Yamagata
    Betsafe2.35
    EV+ 9%
    3.30    		2.72
    Betsson2.35
    EV+ 9%
    3.30    		2.72
    Nordicbet2.35
    EV+ 9%
    3.30    		2.72
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    2.55
    EV+ 15%
    3.49    		2.67

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    1+10 %
    44 %34 %

    2.31 → 2.55

    X-3 %
    31 %21 %

    3.61 → 3.49

    2-4 %
    39 %29 %

    2.79 → 2.67

    Over 2,5+1 %
    61 %51 %

    1.76 → 1.79

    Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    FC Imabari 0Draw 1Montedio Yamagata 1
    Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FC Imabari have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC Imabari
    Montedio Yamagata
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC Imabari (3–5)
    Montedio Yamagata (4–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC Imabari
    Hikaru Arai: 95 passningar, xT 0.31AraiKazuki Kushibiki: 80 passningar, xT 0.31KushibikiKenta Kikuchi: 73 passningar, xT 0.22KikuchiTaiga Son: 59 passningar, xT 0.06SonRei Umeki: 59 passningar, xT 0.08UmekiTakuhiro Nakai: 49 passningar, xT 0.01NakaiKota Mori: 41 passningar, xT 0.31MoriKyota Mochii: 41 passningar, xT 0.13MochiiKotaro Tachikawa: 39 passningar, xT 0.08TachikawaEdigar Junio Teixeira Lima: 27 passningar, xT 0.01LimaYoshiaki Komai: 18 passningar, xT 0.52Komai
    Montedio Yamagata
    Hayate Sugii: 107 passningar, xT 0.4SugiiRyotaro Nakamura: 107 passningar, xT 0.15NakamuraRiku Morioka: 105 passningar, xT 0.14MoriokaTsubasa Terayama: 94 passningar, xT 0.25TerayamaKazuma Okamoto: 84 passningar, xT 0.24OkamotoKiriya Sakamoto: 77 passningar, xT 0.11SakamotoRyoma Kida: 75 passningar, xT 0.45KidaRyusei Sato: 70 passningar, xT 0.08SatoHayate Shirowa: 61 passningar, xT 0.12ShirowaShoma Doi: 48 passningar, xT 0.17DoiRennosuke Kawana: 29 passningar, xT 0.1Kawana
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC Imabari
    Hikaru Arai: 95 passningar, xT 0.31AraiKazuki Kushibiki: 80 passningar, xT 0.31KushibikiKenta Kikuchi: 73 passningar, xT 0.22KikuchiTaiga Son: 59 passningar, xT 0.06SonRei Umeki: 59 passningar, xT 0.08UmekiTakuhiro Nakai: 49 passningar, xT 0.01NakaiKota Mori: 41 passningar, xT 0.31MoriKyota Mochii: 41 passningar, xT 0.13MochiiKotaro Tachikawa: 39 passningar, xT 0.08TachikawaEdigar Junio Teixeira Lima: 27 passningar, xT 0.01LimaYoshiaki Komai: 18 passningar, xT 0.52Komai
    Montedio Yamagata
    Hayate Sugii: 107 passningar, xT 0.4SugiiRyotaro Nakamura: 107 passningar, xT 0.15NakamuraRiku Morioka: 105 passningar, xT 0.14MoriokaTsubasa Terayama: 94 passningar, xT 0.25TerayamaKazuma Okamoto: 84 passningar, xT 0.24OkamotoKiriya Sakamoto: 77 passningar, xT 0.11SakamotoRyoma Kida: 75 passningar, xT 0.45KidaRyusei Sato: 70 passningar, xT 0.08SatoHayate Shirowa: 61 passningar, xT 0.12ShirowaShoma Doi: 48 passningar, xT 0.17DoiRennosuke Kawana: 29 passningar, xT 0.1Kawana
    The goalkeepersKotaro Tachikawa (FC Imabari)Ryusei Sato (Montedio Yamagata)
    Saves511
    Save %50%92%
    xG prevented43%71%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC Imabari
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Montedio Yamagata
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC Imabari vs Montedio Yamagata according to our model?

    The model gives FC Imabari a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Imabari 41%, draw 33%, Montedio Yamagata 26%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.