J2 League22°41,7 mm7 km/h

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    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    2–3
    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    The model's lean: 1 · Kataller Toyama (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Fujieda MYFC @ 4.50 (+2 %)

    Kataller Toyama vs Fujieda MYFC · J2 League

    1 · Kataller Toyama 52%X 25%23% Fujieda MYFC · 2

    Analysis: Kataller Toyama – Fujieda MYFC

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Kataller Toyama holds a 52% win probability against Fujieda MYFC, with market odds indicating a slight edge for bettors looking at the home side. This match pits Toyama's solid form, supported by a head-to-head record of 1 win and 1 loss (no draws) since 2023, against a visiting team struggling to make an impact on the road. The small sample size in their head-to-head clashes should not overshadow the more telling current form and expected goals.

    The expected goals favor Toyama with a 1.70 to 1.14 advantage, hinting at a potential narrow win for the hosts. The most probable scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0 suggest a close match, with Toyama slightly tipping the scales. This aligns with the model's 54% over 2.5 goals projection and a 56% likelihood of both teams finding the net. Rain is in the forecast, which could suppress goal-scoring opportunities, but this has been accounted for in the model's figures.

    While the statistical lean is towards Toyama, the market has priced them at 1.95 odds across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, giving them a 2% edge based on the model's 52% win probability. This presents a value opportunity for those siding with the hosts, especially since Fujieda's away form hasn't been convincing enough to refute the model's lean.

    The forecasted 23.6°C with anticipated rain could dampen the attacking flair typically seen in such matchups. Consequently, a lower-scoring affair seems likely, yet the probability of an over 2.5 haul remains slightly in favor, reflecting the hosts' attacking capabilities more than Fujieda's defensive resilience.

    As the betting angle closes, the value on Toyama at odds of 1.95 stands out, particularly for those willing to back the hosts in a match where numbers converge on their likely victory.

    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    Form WWWLW
    Key players
    • Tsubasa YoshihiraFxG 0.81 · xT 0.51
    • Shunsuke TanimotoCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
    • Yoshiki TakahashiCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
    Fujieda MYFCFujieda MYFC
    Form DLWWL
    Key players
    • Yuto NagaoFxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
    • Yusuke KikuiFxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
    • Yuri MoriCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
    Final score
    2 – 3
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Kataller Toyama 52% · Draw 25% · Fujieda MYFC 23%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Fujieda MYFCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,02fair 14,99-13 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Kataller ToyamaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,48fair 6,84-20 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Kataller Toyama – Fujieda MYFC

    Predicted score matrix

    Fujieda MYFC →
    Kataller Toyama →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–16.3%
    0–23.8%
    0–31.5%
    0–4+0.5%
    1
    1–09.6%
    1–111.7%
    1–26.5%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.9%
    2
    2–08.4%
    2–19.6%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.8%
    3
    3–04.8%
    3–15.4%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–03.0%
    4+–13.4%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-26%
    Expected goals
    1,70–1,14
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.12
    Over 2,554%
    @1.75

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Kataller Toyama to win52%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    40%

    Fair odds

    2.48

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Kataller Toyama to win52%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Ayumu Kameda to score29%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Ayumu Kameda to score29%
    • Shota Suzuki to be booked18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Fujieda MYFC23% probability@4.50PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Kataller ToyamaX2 · Fujieda MYFC
    Betsafe1.753.504.10
    Betsson1.753.504.10
    Nordicbet1.753.504.10
    Pinnacle1.733.88
    EV+ 2%
    4.50

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 22 August — the odds have shortened from 2.01 to 1.72 (−14%).

    1-11 %
    55 %45 %

    1.95 → 1.73

    X+17 %
    31 %21 %

    3.31 → 3.88

    2+17 %
    29 %19 %

    3.86 → 4.50

    Over 2,5-14 %
    56 %46 %

    2.01 → 1.72

    Pinnacle · 17 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Kataller Toyama 1Draw 0Fujieda MYFC 1
    Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

    Head-to-head based on J2 League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kataller Toyama
    Fujieda MYFC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kataller Toyama (4–2)
    Fujieda MYFC (5–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 135 passningar, xT 0.75JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 120 passningar, xT 0.13TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 104 passningar, xT 0.43FukazawaSho Fuseya: 101 passningar, xT 0.46FuseyaYoshiki Takahashi: 99 passningar, xT 0.03TakahashiShosei Okamoto: 90 passningar, xT 0.16OkamotoToshiki Hirao: 63 passningar, xT 0.08HiraoTae-won Kim: 51 passningar, xT 0.15KimShimpei Nishiya: 47 passningar, xT 0.06NishiyaTsubasa Yoshihira: 37 passningar, xT 0.39YoshihiraManato Furukawa: 31 passningar, xT -0.03Furukawa
    Fujieda MYFC
    Uheiji Uehata: 81 passningar, xT 0.14UehataYuto Nagao: 71 passningar, xT 0.45NagaoKeita Matsuda: 66 passningar, xT 0.16MatsudaShota Suzuki: 65 passningar, xT 0.06SuzukiYuri Mori: 63 passningar, xT 0.19MoriTakuya Okamoto: 61 passningar, xT 0.13OkamotoYusuke Kikui: 47 passningar, xT 0.21KikuiYuto Nakamura: 43 passningar, xT 0.05NakamuraShun Yoshida: 42 passningar, xT 0.16YoshidaYoshikaze Tsunoda: 18 passningar, xT 0.01TsunodaMaki Kitahara: 16 passningar, xT -0.04Kitahara
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kataller Toyama
    Woo-Young Jung: 135 passningar, xT 0.75JungShunsuke Tanimoto: 120 passningar, xT 0.13TanimotoSota Fukazawa: 104 passningar, xT 0.43FukazawaSho Fuseya: 101 passningar, xT 0.46FuseyaYoshiki Takahashi: 99 passningar, xT 0.03TakahashiShosei Okamoto: 90 passningar, xT 0.16OkamotoToshiki Hirao: 63 passningar, xT 0.08HiraoTae-won Kim: 51 passningar, xT 0.15KimShimpei Nishiya: 47 passningar, xT 0.06NishiyaTsubasa Yoshihira: 37 passningar, xT 0.39YoshihiraManato Furukawa: 31 passningar, xT -0.03Furukawa
    Fujieda MYFC
    Uheiji Uehata: 81 passningar, xT 0.14UehataYuto Nagao: 71 passningar, xT 0.45NagaoKeita Matsuda: 66 passningar, xT 0.16MatsudaShota Suzuki: 65 passningar, xT 0.06SuzukiYuri Mori: 63 passningar, xT 0.19MoriTakuya Okamoto: 61 passningar, xT 0.13OkamotoYusuke Kikui: 47 passningar, xT 0.21KikuiYuto Nakamura: 43 passningar, xT 0.05NakamuraShun Yoshida: 42 passningar, xT 0.16YoshidaYoshikaze Tsunoda: 18 passningar, xT 0.01TsunodaMaki Kitahara: 16 passningar, xT -0.04Kitahara
    The goalkeepersShosei Okamoto (Kataller Toyama)Shun Yoshida (Fujieda MYFC)
    Saves110
    Save %100%91%
    xG prevented100%94%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Kataller Toyama
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Fujieda MYFC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kataller Toyama vs Fujieda MYFC according to our model?

    The model gives Kataller Toyama a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kataller Toyama 52%, draw 25%, Fujieda MYFC 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.