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    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    4–2
    Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki
    The model's lean: 1 · Vegalta Sendai (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.30 (+5 %)

    Vegalta Sendai vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki · J2 League

    1 · Vegalta Sendai 38%X 32%31% Tegevajaro Miyazaki · 2

    Analysis: Vegalta Sendai – Tegevajaro Miyazaki

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    FULL CORRECTED TEXT:

    With a 38% probability, the model leans toward Vegalta Sendai as they prepare to face Tegevajaro Miyazaki. Despite this slight edge, the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, with a 1-0 scoreline trailing closely at 12%. These numbers highlight the defensive nature of this matchup, as both teams have struggled to stand out significantly in the J2 League.

    The expected goals further suggest a cagey affair, projecting 1.29 for Vegalta Sendai and 1.07 for Tegevajaro Miyazaki. This aligns with the 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to find the net. Rain is expected, which could suppress goal-scoring further, but the model has already accounted for this in its calculations.

    Given the small head-to-head sample size, current form and expected goals serve as stronger indicators of how this match might unfold. A low-scoring affair seems the most likely outcome, making the under 2.5 goals market particularly appealing for those seeking a stable, rational wager.

    Vegalta SendaiVegalta Sendai
    Form DLLDW
    Key players
    • Shunta ArakiFxG 0.02 · xT 0.02
    • Motohiko NakajimaLWxG 0.52 · xT 0.11
    • Tsubasa UmekiFxG 0.28 · xT -0.01
    Tegevajaro MiyazakiTegevajaro Miyazaki
    Form LDD
    Key players
    • Yota ShimokawaLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.19
    • Hikaru ManabeCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.10
    • Yuma MatsumotoRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
    Final score
    4 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Vegalta Sendai 38% · Draw 32% · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 31%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Vegalta SendaiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,95fair 12,22-19 %
    Hit
    Matchresultat - Tegevajaro MiyazakiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,00fair 17,51-31 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Vegalta Sendai – Tegevajaro Miyazaki

    Predicted score matrix

    Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
    Vegalta Sendai →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.8%
    0–19.7%
    0–25.4%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–011.8%
    1–113.4%
    1–27.0%
    1–32.5%
    1–4+0.8%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–18.4%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.6%
    2–4+0.5%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–13.6%
    3–21.9%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–20.8%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.0-010%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,29–1,07
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,4
    Under 2,558%
    @1.67
    Over 2,542%
    @2.35

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Vegalta Sendai or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.83

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Vegalta Sendai or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals58%
    • Shunta Araki to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals42%
    • Yusei Toshida to score25%
    • Riku Yamauchi to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw32% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+5%reference odds
    • 2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki31% probability@3.40Paddy PowerEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 1.531% probability@3.20Paddy PowerEV+0%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Vegalta SendaiX2 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Betsafe2.403.002.85
    Betsson2.403.002.85
    Nordicbet2.403.002.85
    Paddy Power1.95
    EV+ 5%
    3.30
    EV+ 4%
    3.40
    Pinnacle2.582.933.08

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 27 August — the odds have shortened from 3.31 to 2.93 (−11%).

    1+10 %
    41 %36 %

    2.34 → 2.58

    X-11 %
    33 %28 %

    3.31 → 2.93

    2+4 %
    34 %29 %

    2.95 → 3.08

    Over 2,5+5 %
    44 %39 %

    2.23 → 2.35

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Vegalta Sendai
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Vegalta Sendai (2–2)
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki (1–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 153 passningar, xT 0.4InoueMateus Moraes: 117 passningar, xT 0.41MoraesHiromu Kamada: 108 passningar, xT 0.13KamadaHayata Ishii: 85 passningar, xT 0.33IshiiMasayuki Okuyama: 80 passningar, xT 0.24OkuyamaMotohiko Nakajima: 61 passningar, xT 0.32NakajimaRyota Takada: 57 passningar, xT 0.21TakadaSena Igarashi: 54 passningar, xT 0.01IgarashiAkihiro Hayashi: 52 passningar, xT 0.17HayashiShunta Araki: 43 passningar, xT 0.04ArakiHidetoshi Takeda: 34 passningar, xT 0.13Takeda
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Yota Shimokawa: 170 passningar, xT 0.66ShimokawaHikaru Manabe: 153 passningar, xT 0.32ManabeEisuke Watanabe: 124 passningar, xT 0.38WatanabeKengo Kuroki: 103 passningar, xT 0.2KurokiRiku Yamauchi: 94 passningar, xT -0.03YamauchiKoji Okumura: 87 passningar, xT 0.17OkumuraRyoya Kimura: 83 passningar, xT 0.14KimuraYuma Matsumoto: 71 passningar, xT 0.12MatsumotoRen Inoue: 52 passningar, xT -0.11InoueKaiga Murakoshi: 49 passningar, xT 0.04MurakoshiSoichiro Tsutsumi: 27 passningar, xT 0.13Tsutsumi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Vegalta Sendai
    Shion Inoue: 153 passningar, xT 0.4InoueMateus Moraes: 117 passningar, xT 0.41MoraesHiromu Kamada: 108 passningar, xT 0.13KamadaHayata Ishii: 85 passningar, xT 0.33IshiiMasayuki Okuyama: 80 passningar, xT 0.24OkuyamaMotohiko Nakajima: 61 passningar, xT 0.32NakajimaRyota Takada: 57 passningar, xT 0.21TakadaSena Igarashi: 54 passningar, xT 0.01IgarashiAkihiro Hayashi: 52 passningar, xT 0.17HayashiShunta Araki: 43 passningar, xT 0.04ArakiHidetoshi Takeda: 34 passningar, xT 0.13Takeda
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Yota Shimokawa: 170 passningar, xT 0.66ShimokawaHikaru Manabe: 153 passningar, xT 0.32ManabeEisuke Watanabe: 124 passningar, xT 0.38WatanabeKengo Kuroki: 103 passningar, xT 0.2KurokiRiku Yamauchi: 94 passningar, xT -0.03YamauchiKoji Okumura: 87 passningar, xT 0.17OkumuraRyoya Kimura: 83 passningar, xT 0.14KimuraYuma Matsumoto: 71 passningar, xT 0.12MatsumotoRen Inoue: 52 passningar, xT -0.11InoueKaiga Murakoshi: 49 passningar, xT 0.04MurakoshiSoichiro Tsutsumi: 27 passningar, xT 0.13Tsutsumi
    The goalkeepersAkihiro Hayashi (Vegalta Sendai)Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki)
    Saves47
    Save %67%78%
    xG prevented28%31%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Vegalta Sendai
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Tegevajaro Miyazaki
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Vegalta Sendai vs Tegevajaro Miyazaki according to our model?

    The model gives Vegalta Sendai a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vegalta Sendai 38%, draw 32%, Tegevajaro Miyazaki 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.