J2 League23°7,3 mm9 km/h

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    Yokohama FCYokohama FC
    2–2
    Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
    The model's lean: 1 · Yokohama FC (44%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.41 (+8 %)

    Yokohama FC vs Sagan Tosu · J2 League

    1 · Yokohama FC 44%X 32%24% Sagan Tosu · 2

    Analysis: Yokohama FC – Sagan Tosu

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT:

    Yokohama FC, known for their formidable home record, find themselves in a strong position. The hosts have a convincing 65% win rate at home, a testament to their ability to capitalize on familiar turf. Yokohama's tactical approach often relies on dynamic wing play and quick transitions, a method that could exploit any defensive frailties in Sagan Tosu's setup.

    The expected goals model shows a narrow edge for the home side — 1.33 to Sagan Tosu's 1.24 — indicating a tight contest. The visitors will need to shore up their defenses to withstand Yokohama's pressing and counter-attacking prowess.

    The most probable scoreline, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw, with a 13% likelihood. Rain is expected during the match — 4.6 mm — which might suppress goal-scoring opportunities, leading to a cagier affair. This factor is already considered in the model's numbers, with the over 2.5 goals sitting below the halfway mark at 47%.

    Interestingly, the draw presents a value opportunity. Bookmakers Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer odds of 3.25 for a draw, which, given the model's 32% probability, provides an enticing 3% edge. While Yokohama boasts the upper hand in form and home advantage, the value on the draw cannot be ignored, especially with weather possibly leveling the playing field.

    In conclusion, while Yokohama FC have the edge, the savviest play might be on the draw. The odds and model's assessment align to suggest that this could be where the real opportunity lies, with the match likely ending in a low-scoring stalemate.

    Yokohama FCYokohama FC
    Form DDWWL
    Key players
    • Lukian Araújo de AlmeidaFxG 0.65 · xT 0.10
    • Kaili ShimboLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
    • Akiyuki YokoyamaLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
    Sagan TosuSagan Tosu
    Form DLWDL
    Key players
    • Toshiki TakahashiFxG 0.27 · xT -0.01
    • Tatsunori SakuraiCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
    • Rio HyonRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.04
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Yokohama FC 44% · Draw 32% · Sagan Tosu 24%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Sagan TosuBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,33fair 12,63-2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Yokohama FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,20fair 11,03-35 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Yokohama FC – Sagan Tosu

    Predicted score matrix

    Sagan Tosu →
    Yokohama FC →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.1%
    0–19.2%
    0–25.9%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–113.0%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.8%
    2–18.4%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.0%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.3%
    4+–11.6%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,33–1,24
    Both teams to score
    52%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.78
    Over 2,547%
    @2.04

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Yokohama FC or draw (1X)66%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.04

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Yokohama FC or draw (1X)66%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • João Paulo Queiroz de Moraes to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score52%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • João Paulo Queiroz de Moraes to score30%
    • Hinata Ogura to be booked16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw32% probability@3.41PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
    • X · Draw32% probability@3.25BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Yokohama FCX2 · Sagan Tosu
    Betfair Exchange1.151.111.11
    Betsafe2.02
    EV+ 3%
    3.25    		3.40
    Betsson2.02
    EV+ 3%
    3.25    		3.40
    Nordicbet2.02
    EV+ 3%
    3.25    		3.40
    Pinnacle2.12
    EV+ 8%
    3.41    		3.46

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 10:25

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Sagan Tosu win since 27 August — the odds have shortened from 3.93 to 3.46 (−12%).

    1+12 %
    50 %45 %

    1.89 → 2.12

    X-1 %
    30 %25 %

    3.44 → 3.41

    2-12 %
    28 %23 %

    3.93 → 3.46

    Over 2,5+3 %
    49 %44 %

    1.99 → 2.04

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Yokohama FC win 65% of their home matches all-time (20 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Yokohama FC
    Sagan Tosu
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Yokohama FC (4–3)
    Sagan Tosu (3–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Yokohama FC
    Kyo Hosoi: 147 passningar, xT 0.46HosoiKaili Shimbo: 138 passningar, xT 0.61ShimboAkinori Ichikawa: 110 passningar, xT 0.06IchikawaKota Yamada: 95 passningar, xT 0.13YamadaLeo Takae: 89 passningar, xT 0.27TakaeHayato Sugita: 87 passningar, xT 0.2SugitaToma Murata: 62 passningar, xT 0.75MurataAkiyuki Yokoyama: 53 passningar, xT -0.09YokoyamaTakuya Shimamura: 46 passningar, xT 0.19ShimamuraMakito Ito: 39 passningar, xT 0.11ItoKatsuya Iwatake: 29 passningar, xT 0.07Iwatake
    Sagan Tosu
    Kaito Abe: 181 passningar, xT 0.05AbeShiva Tafari Nagasawa: 165 passningar, xT 0.22NagasawaTatsunori Sakurai: 163 passningar, xT 0.22SakuraiSora Ogawa: 110 passningar, xT 0.21OgawaAyumu Toyoda: 85 passningar, xT 0.07ToyodaRio Hyon: 78 passningar, xT 0.05HyonKenta Nishizawa: 77 passningar, xT 0.42NishizawaManato Yoshida: 68 passningar, xT 0.05YoshidaRyota Izumori: 67 passningar, xT 0.05IzumoriRyo Shiohama: 64 passningar, xT 0.01ShiohamaNagi Matsumoto: 60 passningar, xT 0Matsumoto
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Yokohama FC
    Kyo Hosoi: 147 passningar, xT 0.46HosoiKaili Shimbo: 138 passningar, xT 0.61ShimboAkinori Ichikawa: 110 passningar, xT 0.06IchikawaKota Yamada: 95 passningar, xT 0.13YamadaLeo Takae: 89 passningar, xT 0.27TakaeHayato Sugita: 87 passningar, xT 0.2SugitaToma Murata: 62 passningar, xT 0.75MurataAkiyuki Yokoyama: 53 passningar, xT -0.09YokoyamaTakuya Shimamura: 46 passningar, xT 0.19ShimamuraMakito Ito: 39 passningar, xT 0.11ItoKatsuya Iwatake: 29 passningar, xT 0.07Iwatake
    Sagan Tosu
    Kaito Abe: 181 passningar, xT 0.05AbeShiva Tafari Nagasawa: 165 passningar, xT 0.22NagasawaTatsunori Sakurai: 163 passningar, xT 0.22SakuraiSora Ogawa: 110 passningar, xT 0.21OgawaAyumu Toyoda: 85 passningar, xT 0.07ToyodaRio Hyon: 78 passningar, xT 0.05HyonKenta Nishizawa: 77 passningar, xT 0.42NishizawaManato Yoshida: 68 passningar, xT 0.05YoshidaRyota Izumori: 67 passningar, xT 0.05IzumoriRyo Shiohama: 64 passningar, xT 0.01ShiohamaNagi Matsumoto: 60 passningar, xT 0Matsumoto
    The goalkeepersAkinori Ichikawa (Yokohama FC)Ryota Izumori (Sagan Tosu)
    Saves1111
    Save %79%79%
    xG prevented38%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Yokohama FC
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Sagan Tosu
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Yokohama FC vs Sagan Tosu according to our model?

    The model gives Yokohama FC a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Yokohama FC 44%, draw 32%, Sagan Tosu 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.