01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win52%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
J2 League17°13 km/h
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Tegevajaro MiyazakiPossession controlvs
Oita TrinitaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (52%)
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Oita Trinita · J2 League
1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 52%X 27%21% Oita Trinita · 2
52%
27%
21%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Oita Trinita (J2 League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Tegevajaro Miyazaki win 52%, draw 27%, Oita Trinita win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.55, Oita Trinita 0.97. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw 79%, Oita Trinita or draw 48%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Oita Trinita
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
52% makes Tegevajaro Miyazaki the right side against Oita Trinita, and the market looks a touch too generous rather than merely fair. The model leans home, with a 27% draw chance and only 21% for the visitors. My score call is 1-0, tied in the model with 1-1 at 12%, while 2-0 follows at 10%.
Miyazaki’s seven-match unbeaten league run is stronger evidence than Oita’s three straight wins, even if the visitors arrive with momentum. The hosts also lead on xPoints, 19.0 to 15.6, and their xG per match is 1.2 versus 1.0. That is not a huge gap, but it fits the possession-control profile: Miyazaki have been the more reliable side at turning matches into territorial advantage.
The sharper split comes after turnovers. Miyazaki generate 0.25 xG within 8s of winning the ball, compared with Oita’s 0.14. Oita’s balanced and physical approach can keep a game awkward, but it has not produced the same immediate threat. Their xGA per match is 1.0 against 1.0, with the edge Oita, so this is not a case for treating the home side as dominant.
Goals point slightly down. Expected goals sit at 1.55 for Miyazaki and 0.97 for the visitors, while over 2.5 lands at 46% and both teams to score at 49%. That makes under 2.5 the cleaner directional lean, despite the 1-1 scoreline sharing top billing in the distribution. Oita’s recent wins complicate the call, but they do not overturn the underlying home edge.
Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer 2.02 on the home win. With the model rating Miyazaki at 52%, that is assessed as a 6% edge, the standout EV+ angle. Betsafe’s over 2.5 at 2.18 is also assessed as EV+, but only by 1%; back the hosts at 2.02, not the thin over price.
Tegevajaro MiyazakiForm WDDDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #7xT #16xP/match #2Points #9
Key players
- Koji OkumuraCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
- Yota ShimokawaLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.24
- Hikaru ManabeCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.06
Oita TrinitaForm DDWWW
League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #14xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Matheus PereiraCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
- Yuto MisaoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Ayuki MiyakawaCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki – Oita Trinita
Predicted score matrix
Oita Trinita →
Tegevajaro Miyazaki →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.4%
0–17.5%
0–23.8%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–012.1%
1–112.5%
1–25.9%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.6%
2–19.4%
2–24.6%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.0%
3–14.8%
3–22.4%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–02.7%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,55–0,97
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
120%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.67
Over 2,546%
@2.18EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki to win52%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Keigo Hashimoto to score40%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Keigo Hashimoto to score40%
- Koya Hayashida to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki52% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki52% probability@2.02NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki52% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki | X | 2 · Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 2.02 | 3.05 | 3.55 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 2.02 | 3.05 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 3% 1.97 | 3.27 | 3.85 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 17:03
Odds movement
1-1 %
49 %44 %
2.00 → 1.97
X+3 %
31 %26 %
3.18 → 3.27
2-1 %
27 %22 %
3.87 → 3.85
Over 2,5-7 %
45 %40 %
2.30 → 2.15
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Oita Trinita come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Oita Trinita
Tegevajaro Miyazaki (17–16)
Oita Trinita (16–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Oita Trinita
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Oita Trinita
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 17 |
| xPoints | 19 | 15.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| Playing style | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.8 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 301 | 320 |
| Passes against per match | 327 | 376 |
| Switches of play per match | 32.3 | 23.4 |
| Long balls per match | 45 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Other | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Oita Trinita |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryoya Kimura (Tegevajaro Miyazaki) | Kyung Gun Mun (Oita Trinita) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 35 |
| Save % | 70% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Vegalta Sendai – Omiya Ardija31 October 2026
- FC Imabari – Ventforet Kofu31 October 2026
- Tochigi City – Iwaki FC31 October 2026
- Blaublitz Akita – Fujieda MYFC31 October 2026
- Jubilo Iwata – Sagan Tosu31 October 2026
- Albirex Niigata – Kataller Toyama31 October 2026
- Vanraure Hachinohe – Montedio Yamagata31 October 2026
- Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo – Shonan Bellmare31 October 2026
- Tokushima Vortis – Yokohama FC31 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Oita Trinita according to our model?
The model gives Tegevajaro Miyazaki a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 52%, draw 27%, Oita Trinita 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Oita Trinita?
The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for Tegevajaro Miyazaki and 0.97 for Oita Trinita, 2.52 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Tegevajaro Miyazaki or draw (1X) 79%, Oita Trinita or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.