J2 League14°0,3 mm6 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    Tochigi CityTochigi CityCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    Iwaki FCIwaki FCCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 1 · Tochigi City (44%)

    Tochigi City vs Iwaki FC · J2 League

    1 · Tochigi City 44%X 23%33% Iwaki FC · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tochigi City vs Iwaki FC (J2 League, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Tochigi City win 44%, draw 23%, Iwaki FC win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Tochigi City 1.53, Iwaki FC 1.37. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Tochigi City or draw 67%, Iwaki FC or draw 56%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Tochigi City – Iwaki FC

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    44% for Tochigi City is the number that cuts through a table picture favouring Iwaki FC. The visitors lead 17 points to 12 and 18.0 xPoints to 14.5, but the hosts carry the better attacking xG per match, 1.4 to 1.2. The analysis points to a home lean, even if 1-1, at 12%, is the single most likely scoreline.

    Both sides live off counter attacks and crosses, so this is unlikely to become a clean territorial squeeze. Iwaki have the stronger defensive xGA figure, 1.2 against 1.5, but City’s 1.53 expected goals shade Iwaki’s 1.37. My score call is 2-1 to the hosts; the over 2.5 lean is modest but clear at 55%, with both teams to score at 59%.

    The stable play is not necessarily the prettiest one. Home at 2.65 with Betsafe and Nordicbet rates as EV+ in this model: 44% win probability and a 16% edge. Under 3.5 at 1.52 with Betsafe also grades EV+, at 67% and a 2% edge. The home price is the sharper angle; boring, well-supported bets pay the bills.

    Tochigi CityTochigi City
    Form LLLDD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #20xT #7xP/match #17Points #17
    Key players
    • Matej JonjićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
    • Kazuki NishiyaLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.17
    • Atsushi YoshidaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
    Iwaki FCIwaki FC
    Form LWWDD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #10xP/match #11Points #8
    Key players
    • Naoki KumataFxG 0.44 · xT 0.01
    • Atsuki YamanakaLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
    • Soichiro FukaminatoCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Tochigi City – Iwaki FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Iwaki FC →
    Tochigi City →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.8%
    0–17.2%
    0–25.2%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.1%
    1
    1–08.1%
    1–111.9%
    1–27.9%
    1–33.6%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–06.4%
    2–18.8%
    2–26.1%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–03.3%
    3–14.5%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–01.8%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,53–1,37
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,545%
    @2.28EV+2%
    Over 2,555%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Tochigi City or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.91

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Tochigi City or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Atsushi Yoshida to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals55%
    • Atsushi Yoshida to score23%
    • Ryo Endo to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Tochigi City44% probability@2.67PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 1 · Tochigi City44% probability@2.65BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    • 1 · Tochigi City44% probability@2.65NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Tochigi CityX2 · Iwaki FC
    Betsafe
    EV+ 16%
    2.65    		3.402.30
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 16%
    2.65    		3.402.30
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 17%
    2.67    		3.722.34

    Odds updated 26 Oct, 08:36

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    37 %32 %

    2.70 → 2.67

    X-1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.75 → 3.72

    2+1 %
    43 %38 %

    2.31 → 2.34

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 25/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Tochigi City
    Iwaki FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Tochigi City (19–20)
    Iwaki FC (20–19)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Tochigi City
    Hayato Teruyama: 230 passningar, xT 0.51TeruyamaMatej Jonjić: 201 passningar, xT 0.82JonjićKazuki Nishiya: 183 passningar, xT 0.43NishiyaRyo Okui: 181 passningar, xT 0.44OkuiPedro Augusto Borges da Costa: 149 passningar, xT 0.02CostaYuki Okaniwa: 103 passningar, xT 0.13OkaniwaYuta Koike: 100 passningar, xT 0.86KoikeJin-Hyeon Kim: 92 passningar, xT 0.37KimToshiki Mori: 89 passningar, xT 0.18MoriYoshiki Sato: 88 passningar, xT 0.14SatoTetsuya Chinen: 86 passningar, xT 0.26Chinen
    Iwaki FC
    Soichiro Fukaminato: 118 passningar, xT 0.45FukaminatoDaiki Yamaguchi: 100 passningar, xT 0.28YamaguchiKaito Fujii: 89 passningar, xT 0.26FujiiTaisei Kuwata: 79 passningar, xT 0.36KuwataYuriya Takahashi: 75 passningar, xT 0.53TakahashiRyo Nishitani: 70 passningar, xT 1.23NishitaniMasato Sasaki: 59 passningar, xT 0.42SasakiShota Kofie: 59 passningar, xT 0.43KofieHaruto Nakano: 48 passningar, xT 0.13NakanoNaoki Kumata: 45 passningar, xT -0.11KumataYutaka Michiwaki: 40 passningar, xT -0.07Michiwaki
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Tochigi City
    Hayato Teruyama: 230 passningar, xT 0.51TeruyamaMatej Jonjić: 201 passningar, xT 0.82JonjićKazuki Nishiya: 183 passningar, xT 0.43NishiyaRyo Okui: 181 passningar, xT 0.44OkuiPedro Augusto Borges da Costa: 149 passningar, xT 0.02CostaYuki Okaniwa: 103 passningar, xT 0.13OkaniwaYuta Koike: 100 passningar, xT 0.86KoikeJin-Hyeon Kim: 92 passningar, xT 0.37KimToshiki Mori: 89 passningar, xT 0.18MoriYoshiki Sato: 88 passningar, xT 0.14SatoTetsuya Chinen: 86 passningar, xT 0.26Chinen
    Iwaki FC
    Soichiro Fukaminato: 118 passningar, xT 0.45FukaminatoDaiki Yamaguchi: 100 passningar, xT 0.28YamaguchiKaito Fujii: 89 passningar, xT 0.26FujiiTaisei Kuwata: 79 passningar, xT 0.36KuwataYuriya Takahashi: 75 passningar, xT 0.53TakahashiRyo Nishitani: 70 passningar, xT 1.23NishitaniMasato Sasaki: 59 passningar, xT 0.42SasakiShota Kofie: 59 passningar, xT 0.43KofieHaruto Nakano: 48 passningar, xT 0.13NakanoNaoki Kumata: 45 passningar, xT -0.11KumataYutaka Michiwaki: 40 passningar, xT -0.07Michiwaki

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTochigi CityIwaki FC
    Points1217
    xPoints14.518
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match1.51.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.10.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.310.09
    Playing styleTochigi CityIwaki FC
    Build-up efficiency0.330.34
    Field tilt0.490.51
    xT per match10.94
    xTA per match1.10.83
    Won balls, offensive half1822
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.290.37
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.4
    Entries into the box per match1212
    Entries into the box against1412
    Pass completion %0.740.6
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.59
    Passes per match344219
    Passes against per match291264
    Switches of play per match29.711.5
    Long balls per match4027
    Set piecesTochigi CityIwaki FC
    xG from free kicks0.070.1
    Corners per match3.96.3
    Corners against per match6.45.7
    xG per corner0.050.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.40.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.66
    OtherTochigi CityIwaki FC
    Throw-in control0.730.72
    The goalkeepersJin-Hyeon Kim (Tochigi City)Masato Sasaki (Iwaki FC)
    Saves5030
    Save %76%63%
    xG prevented62%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Tochigi City
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Iwaki FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Tochigi City vs Iwaki FC according to our model?

    The model gives Tochigi City a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tochigi City 44%, draw 23%, Iwaki FC 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Tochigi City vs Iwaki FC?

    The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Tochigi City and 1.37 for Iwaki FC, 2.90 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Tochigi City or draw (1X) 67%, Iwaki FC or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 77%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Vanraure HachinoheVanraure Hachinohe
    2–0
    Kataller ToyamaKataller Toyama
    1 33%X 31%2 36%
    The model missed the outcome
    Hokkaido Consadole SapporoHokkaido Consadole Sapporo
    2–0
    Tokushima VortisTokushima Vortis
    1 43%X 28%2 29%
    The model called the outcome
    Jubilo IwataJubilo Iwata
    1–1
    Blaublitz AkitaBlaublitz Akita
    1 33%X 31%2 36%
    The model missed the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Hämta bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.

    Se ComeOns villkor

    Hämta bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.

    Se Hajpers villkor

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.