Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Liga MX29 August 2026 05:00 CESTEstadio Caliente, Tijuana32°16 km/h

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TijuanaLow block & direct

Pumas UNAMPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Tijuana (40%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.50 (+16 %)

1 · Tijuana 40%X 29%31% Pumas UNAM · 2

40%

29%

31%

Analysis: Tijuana – Pumas UNAM

Anna Karlsson · 24 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The numbers paint a clear picture ahead of Tijuana's clash with Pumas UNAM. The model gives the hosts a 40% chance of victory, suggesting a slight advantage for Tijuana. Despite a modest 1.41 expected goals for Tijuana compared to Pumas' 1.23, the most likely scorelines—1-1, 1-0, and 2-1—indicate a closely contested affair. Tijuana's historical 55% home win rate further bolsters their standing, yet the head-to-head since 2023 reveals a balanced record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses. This small sample, however, holds less weight than Tijuana's superior recent form and xPoints edge.

Tijuana's direct style may test Pumas' possession-focused approach, with the hosts' attack posing consistent threats at home. Still, Pumas' slightly better defensive xGA could prove pivotal in a match where goals might be scarce. Given the 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance for both teams to find the net, the model suggests caution in expecting a high-scoring showdown.

The sharpest angle lies in the value on unders. Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 odds via Betsson stands out with an 8% edge. For the braver punter, under 1.5 goals at 4.15 offers a sizable 7% advantage, directly challenging the narrative of an open, goal-filled match.

Tijuana

Form WWDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #4xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Ignacio RiveroRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.02
Gilberto MoraCAMxG 0.44 · xT 0.08
Ivan TonaCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.18

Pumas UNAM

Form LLWWD

League ranking xG #17xGA #2xT #12xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Sebastian CordovaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Rodrigo LopezRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
Nathan SilvaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Tijuana – Pumas UNAM

Predicted score matrix

Pumas UNAM →

Tijuana →

0–07.5%

0–18.5%

0–25.4%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.7%

1–112.8%

1–27.6%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.1%

2–18.7%

2–25.4%

2–32.2%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.3%

3–14.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,41–1,23

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.12EV+8%

Over 2,549%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Tijuana or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Tijuana or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Jonathan Yael Padilla Sandoval to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Jonathan Yael Padilla Sandoval to score22%
Pedro Jeampierre Vite Uca to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.526% probability@4.50Paddy PowerEV+16%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.12BetssonEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.10Paddy PowerEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Tijuana	X	2 · Pumas UNAM
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Betsson	2.15	3.40	3.05
Paddy Power	2.20	EV+ 3% 3.50	2.80
Pinnacle	2.22	EV+ 0% 3.42	3.22

Odds updated 26 Aug, 05:14

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Tijuana win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 2.39 to 2.22 (−7%).

1-7 %

44 %39 %

2.39 → 2.22

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.31 → 3.42

2+7 %

33 %28 %

3.01 → 3.22

Over 2,5-5 %

52 %47 %

2.00 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Tijuana 1Draw 1Pumas UNAM 2

Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

Key facts

Club Tijuana win 55% of their home matches all-time (42 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Tijuana

Pumas UNAM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Tijuana (8–7)

Pumas UNAM (7–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Tijuana

Pumas UNAM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Tijuana

Pumas UNAM

The teams in numbers

Performance	Tijuana	Pumas UNAM
Points	10	7
xPoints	8.8	5.2
xG per match	1.5	1
xGA per match	1.1	0.92
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.18

Playing style	Tijuana	Pumas UNAM
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.3	0.46
xT per match	1.2	0.94
xTA per match	1.1	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	19	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.29
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	14	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.75
Passes per match	308	377
Passes against per match	468	329
Switches of play per match	30.2	34.1
Long balls per match	37	39

Set pieces	Tijuana	Pumas UNAM
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	2.8	4
Corners against per match	5.8	4
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.05	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.71	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.75

Other	Tijuana	Pumas UNAM
Throw-in control	0.71	0.64

The goalkeepers	Antonio Rodriguez (Tijuana)	Keylor Antonio Navas Gamboa (Pumas UNAM)
Saves	15	11
Save %	68%	69%
xG prevented	45%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM according to our model?

The model gives Tijuana a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tijuana 40%, draw 29%, Pumas UNAM 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.