Liga MXEstadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca14°0,7 mm16 km/h

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    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo TolucaPossession control
    vs
    FC JuárezFC JuárezPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Toluca (81%)

    Deportivo Toluca – FC Juárez · Liga MX

    1 · Deportivo Toluca 81%X 13%6% FC Juárez · 2

    Analysis: Deportivo Toluca – FC Juárez

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    An overwhelming 81% win probability points to Deportivo Toluca's dominance over FC Juárez. The hosts have not only claimed victory in five of their last six meetings against Juárez, but they also maintain a formidable home win rate of 68%. Toluca's stronghold is further reinforced by Juárez's dismal form, having lost their last five matches. The odds of 1.28 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a value opportunity, as the model sees a 4% edge at this price.

    Expected goals tell a clear story: Toluca are favored to outscore Juárez by a significant margin, with expected figures standing at 2.62 to 0.64. This discrepancy suggests a multi-goal win for Toluca, with scorelines like 2-0 and 3-0 being the most probable outcomes. Despite both teams employing a possession-based style, Juárez's ineffective execution, evident in their low xG per match and high xGA, leaves them vulnerable.

    The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at 63%, implying a decent chance for a relatively high-scoring game. However, Juárez's bleak scoring prospects, combined with Toluca's defensive discipline, lean towards a clean sheet for the hosts. With a strong model lean and pronounced historical precedence, banking on a Toluca win at the available odds is the sharpest angle here.

    Deportivo TolucaDeportivo Toluca
    Form WLWDW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #8xP/match #8Points #3
    Key players
    • Hélio Júnio Nunes de CastroRWxG 0.31 · xT 0.17
    • Santiago SimónRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12
    • Alexis VegaLWxG 0.48 · xT 0.22
    FC JuárezFC Juárez
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #18xT #16xP/match #18Points #18
    Key players
    • Oscar EstupinanFxG 0.19 · xT -0.01
    • Denzell Arturo García BojorquezCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
    • Jose Luis RodriguezCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Deportivo Toluca – FC Juárez

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Juárez →
    Deportivo Toluca →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.0%
    0–12.3%
    0–20.8%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–09.8%
    1–16.7%
    1–22.1%
    1–30.4%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–013.1%
    2–18.5%
    2–22.7%
    2–30.6%
    2–4+0.1%
    3
    3–011.5%
    3–17.4%
    3–22.4%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–014.1%
    4+–19.1%
    4+–22.9%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-013%
    2. 2.3-011%
    3. 3.1-010%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.4-07%
    Expected goals
    2,62–0,64
    Both teams to score
    44%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    @2.75EV+1%
    Over 2,563%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Deportivo Toluca to win81%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    69%

    Fair odds

    1.44

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Deportivo Toluca to win81%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte to score39%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score44%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Jesús Ricardo Angulo Uriarte to score39%
    • Ramón Rodríguez Jiménez to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Deportivo Toluca81% probability@1.36Paddy PowerEV+11%reference odds
    • Under 1.516% probability@6.50Paddy PowerEV+5%reference odds
    • Under 3.559% probability@1.77PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Deportivo TolucaX2 · FC Juárez
    Betsafe
    EV+ 4%
    1.28    		5.259.70
    Betsson
    EV+ 4%
    1.28    		5.259.70
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 4%
    1.28    		5.259.70
    Paddy Power
    EV+ 11%
    1.36    		4.506.00
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 4%
    1.28    		5.888.50

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 08:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an FC Juárez win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 9.74 to 8.50 (−13%).

    1+3 %
    77 %72 %

    1.25 → 1.28

    X-8 %
    18 %13 %

    6.42 → 5.88

    2-13 %
    13 %8 %

    9.74 → 8.50

    Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Deportivo Toluca 5Draw 1FC Juárez 0
    Goals: 14–4 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Liga MX data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Deportivo Toluca dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 6 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
    • FC Juarez have lost 5 in a row.
    • Deportivo Toluca win 68% of their home matches all-time (44 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Deportivo Toluca
    FC Juárez
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Deportivo Toluca (8–4)
    FC Juárez (3–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Toluca
    Federico Pereira: 256 passningar, xT 0.28PereiraFranco Romero: 249 passningar, xT 0.13RomeroEverardo Del Villar: 201 passningar, xT 0.15VillarBruno Mendez: 155 passningar, xT 0.23MendezAlexis Vega: 139 passningar, xT 0.56VegaJesus Angulo: 128 passningar, xT 0.51AnguloHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro: 120 passningar, xT 0.45CastroSantiago Simón: 119 passningar, xT 0.22SimónJesus Gallardo: 117 passningar, xT 1.08GallardoErick Gutierrez: 100 passningar, xT 0.1GutierrezBrian Garcia: 99 passningar, xT 0.55Garcia
    FC Juárez
    Denzell Arturo García Bojorquez: 136 passningar, xT 0.12BojorquezAlejandro Mayorga: 120 passningar, xT 0.16MayorgaHaret Ortega: 114 passningar, xT 0.13OrtegaJavier Aquino: 110 passningar, xT 0.29AquinoJesus Murillo: 103 passningar, xT 0.08MurilloSebastian Jurado: 101 passningar, xT 0.09JuradoGilberto Sepulveda: 95 passningar, xT 0.15SepulvedaFrancisco Nevarez: 93 passningar, xT 0.47NevarezGuilherme Castilho: 90 passningar, xT 0.48CastilhoJose Luis Rodriguez: 78 passningar, xT 0.56RodriguezRamón Rodríguez Jiménez: 77 passningar, xT 0.27Jiménez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Toluca
    Federico Pereira: 256 passningar, xT 0.28PereiraFranco Romero: 249 passningar, xT 0.13RomeroEverardo Del Villar: 201 passningar, xT 0.15VillarBruno Mendez: 155 passningar, xT 0.23MendezAlexis Vega: 139 passningar, xT 0.56VegaJesus Angulo: 128 passningar, xT 0.51AnguloHélio Júnio Nunes de Castro: 120 passningar, xT 0.45CastroSantiago Simón: 119 passningar, xT 0.22SimónJesus Gallardo: 117 passningar, xT 1.08GallardoErick Gutierrez: 100 passningar, xT 0.1GutierrezBrian Garcia: 99 passningar, xT 0.55Garcia
    FC Juárez
    Denzell Arturo García Bojorquez: 136 passningar, xT 0.12BojorquezAlejandro Mayorga: 120 passningar, xT 0.16MayorgaHaret Ortega: 114 passningar, xT 0.13OrtegaJavier Aquino: 110 passningar, xT 0.29AquinoJesus Murillo: 103 passningar, xT 0.08MurilloSebastian Jurado: 101 passningar, xT 0.09JuradoGilberto Sepulveda: 95 passningar, xT 0.15SepulvedaFrancisco Nevarez: 93 passningar, xT 0.47NevarezGuilherme Castilho: 90 passningar, xT 0.48CastilhoJose Luis Rodriguez: 78 passningar, xT 0.56RodriguezRamón Rodríguez Jiménez: 77 passningar, xT 0.27Jiménez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDeportivo TolucaFC Juárez
    Points100
    xPoints7.13.4
    xG per match1.60.57
    xGA per match12
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.120.48
    Playing styleDeportivo TolucaFC Juárez
    Build-up efficiency0.320.27
    Field tilt0.680.31
    xT per match1.10.74
    xTA per match0.991.5
    Won balls, offensive half2722
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.310.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.21
    Entries into the box per match1610
    Entries into the box against1119
    Pass completion %0.810.72
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.69
    Passes per match479278
    Passes against per match258413
    Switches of play per match3523
    Long balls per match4431
    Set piecesDeportivo TolucaFC Juárez
    xG from free kicks0.060.01
    Corners per match5.92.8
    Corners against per match5.38.5
    xG per corner0.010.04
    xGA per corner against0.050.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.270.64
    First touch, defensive corners %0.480.49
    OtherDeportivo TolucaFC Juárez
    Throw-in control0.730.61
    The goalkeepersLuis Garcia (Deportivo Toluca)Sebastian Jurado (FC Juárez)
    Saves823
    Save %89%61%
    xG prevented37%29%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Deportivo Toluca vs FC Juárez according to our model?

    The model gives Deportivo Toluca a 81% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Toluca 81%, draw 13%, FC Juárez 6%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.