01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bodø/Glimt to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Norwegian Eliteserien10°9,9 mm9 km/h
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BrannPossession controlvs
Bodø/GlimtPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Bodø/Glimt (56%)
Brann – Bodø/Glimt · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Brann 23%X 21%56% Bodø/Glimt · 2
23%
21%
56%
Analysis: Brann – Bodø/Glimt
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT:
Bodø/Glimt's high press and relentless scoring streaks make them the team to watch in this fixture. They've notched goals in 12 consecutive league matches, showcasing a formidable attacking machinery that is tough to suppress. With their recent form peaking at eight straight wins, Glimt's confidence is palpable, and their ability to capitalize on Brann's defensive lapses seems likely.
The visitors have historically dominated Brann, winning four of their last five encounters. While this head-to-head sample size is small, it does highlight a pattern of superiority that aligns with both teams' current form. Glimt's expected goals (xG) of 2.12 per game also underscore their attacking prowess, comfortably exceeding Brann's 1.25 xG. The expected goals against (xGA) also favor Glimt, hinting at potential defensive vulnerabilities in the hosts' setup.
Brann, known for their possession-based control style, will need to be wary of Glimt's high press disrupting their rhythm. While Brann has the ball-playing capabilities, their xGA of 1.6 suggests they are susceptible to conceding goals against aggressive opponents like Glimt. Despite the home advantage, Brann faces a tactical challenge in containing Glimt's dynamic forwards.
The model's probabilities paint a clear picture: Glimt are favored at 56% to take the win, with the most likely scorelines being a 1-2 or a 0-2 outcome. The 65% probability for over 2.5 goals further supports the expectation of a lively affair, despite the rain forecast, which might slightly temper scoring opportunities but is factored into the predictions.
While football is unpredictable, the indicators suggest that backing Glimt aligns with the underlying statistics and current form.
BrannForm LWWDL
League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #2xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Niklas CastroLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.54
- Noah HolmFxG 0.46 · xT 0.04
- Joachim SoltvedtLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.37
Bodø/GlimtForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Andreas HelmersenFxG 0.90 · xT 0.09
- Jens Petter HaugeLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.40
- Fredrik SjovoldRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.40
Match prediction: Brann – Bodø/Glimt
Predicted score matrix
Bodø/Glimt →
Brann →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–17.0%
0–27.7%
0–35.5%
0–4+4.7%
1
1–04.0%
1–19.4%
1–29.7%
1–36.8%
1–4+5.9%
2
2–02.7%
2–15.7%
2–26.0%
2–34.3%
2–4+3.7%
3
3–01.1%
3–12.4%
3–22.5%
3–31.8%
3–4+1.5%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–11.0%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-210%
- 2.1-19%
- 3.0-28%
- 4.0-17%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,25–2,12
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,535%
–
Over 2,566%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bodø/Glimt to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Jens Petter Hauge to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Jens Petter Hauge to score29%
- Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen to be booked21%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesBrann 1Draw 0Bodø/Glimt 4
Goals: 7–14 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- FK Bodo/Glimt dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
- FK Bodo/Glimt come into this round on 8 straight wins.
- FK Bodo/Glimt have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
- Brann win 60% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Brann
Bodø/Glimt
Brann (37–29)
Bodø/Glimt (49–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Brann
Bodø/Glimt
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Brann
Bodø/Glimt
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Brann | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26 | 47 |
| xPoints | 23.8 | 34.5 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.4 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Brann | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 2 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.68 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 22 | 29 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 438 | 596 |
| Passes against per match | 277 | 309 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.4 | 41.7 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Brann | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.7 | 7.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 2.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| Other | Brann | Bodø/Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Mathias Dyngeland (Brann) | Nikita Haikin (Bodø/Glimt) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 37 | 41 |
| Save % | 66% | 75% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 53% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Brann vs Bodø/Glimt according to our model?
The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brann 23%, draw 21%, Bodø/Glimt 56%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.