Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien19 September 202612°0,9 mm7 km/h

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VålerengaBalanced & physical

FredrikstadBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Vålerenga (48%)

1 · Vålerenga 48%X 26%25% Fredrikstad · 2

48%

26%

25%

Analysis: Vålerenga – Fredrikstad

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Fredrikstad might be enjoying a points lead over Vålerenga in the Eliteserien standings, but the numbers tell a more nuanced story. The model gives Vålerenga a 48% chance of winning, suggesting the market might slightly underestimate the hosts. While the head-to-head record shows no wins for Vålerenga in their last three meetings, this small sample carries less weight than the current form and expected goals data.

Vålerenga's expected goals (1.80) surpass Fredrikstad's (1.33), indicating that the hosts are creating higher quality chances. Despite being just marginally ahead on xPoints, Vålerenga's xGA of 1.7 compared to Fredrikstad's 1.9 suggests they are slightly more resilient at the back. It’s a tight contest, yet these underlying metrics favor the home side.

Goals may well flow, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams find the net. Such probabilities hint at a lively encounter, where defenses might struggle to keep clean sheets. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, reflects the visitors' ability to compete, but Vålerenga's 2-1 and 1-0 win probabilities suggest a slight edge in their favor.

In this tightly poised matchup, the slight lean towards Vålerenga, both in terms of underlying numbers and model probabilities, makes them the more interesting side to consider. It's a case of metrics trumping the narrative of recent head-to-head struggles.

Vålerenga

Form LLDDD

League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #6xP/match #12Points #10

Key players

Henrik BjordalRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.17
Mathias GrundetjernFxG 0.40 · xT 0.04
Elias SorensenFxG 0.19 · xT 0.12

Fredrikstad

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #14xP/match #17Points #8

Key players

Daniel EidRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.23
Benjamin FaraasFxG 0.36 · xT 0.02
Henrik SkogvoldFxG 0.23 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Vålerenga – Fredrikstad

Predicted score matrix

Fredrikstad →

Vålerenga →

0–04.7%

0–15.5%

0–23.9%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.8%

1–07.6%

1–110.8%

1–27.0%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.1%

2–19.4%

2–26.2%

2–32.8%

2–4+1.2%

3–04.3%

3–15.6%

3–23.7%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–02.9%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-08%
4.2-07%
5.1-27%

Expected goals

1,80–1,33

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,540%

–

Over 2,560%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vålerenga to win48%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vålerenga to win48%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Mathias Grundetjern to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Mathias Grundetjern to score26%
Fredrik Holme to be booked19%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Vålerenga 0Draw 2Fredrikstad 1

Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vålerenga

Fredrikstad

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vålerenga (33–40)

Fredrikstad (23–30)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vålerenga

Fredrikstad

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vålerenga

Fredrikstad

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vålerenga	Fredrikstad
Points	23	26
xPoints	23.2	20.7
xG per match	1.4	1.3
xGA per match	1.7	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.3

Playing style	Vålerenga	Fredrikstad
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.36
Field tilt	0.51	0.41
xT per match	1.2	0.9
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.26
Entries into the box per match	16	11
Entries into the box against	16	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	380	377
Passes against per match	384	437
Switches of play per match	24.3	25.3
Long balls per match	33	37

Set pieces	Vålerenga	Fredrikstad
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.07
Corners per match	6.7	4
Corners against per match	5.7	6
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.41	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.51

Other	Vålerenga	Fredrikstad
Throw-in control	0.76	0.76

The goalkeepers	Oscar Thore Hedvall (Vålerenga)	Martin Borsheim (Fredrikstad)
Saves	66	65
Save %	62%	68%
xG prevented	48%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vålerenga

Fixtures, form & tips

Fredrikstad

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vålerenga vs Fredrikstad according to our model?

The model gives Vålerenga a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vålerenga 48%, draw 26%, Fredrikstad 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.