Sandefjord vs Start: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien19 September 202611°0,3 mm11 km/h

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SandefjordBalanced & physical

StartLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sandefjord (45%)

1 · Sandefjord 45%X 25%30% Start · 2

45%

25%

30%

Analysis: Sandefjord – Start

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sandefjord's 45% chance of victory against Start stands out as the clearest probability in this matchup. With a slight lean toward the hosts from the model, the numbers suggest a narrow win for Sandefjord. However, it's not just about probability; their physical playing style may very well disrupt Start's low-defence, direct approach, giving the home side an edge in what could be a closely contested encounter.

The expected goals further illustrate this: Sandefjord comes in at 1.63 compared to Start's 1.28. While both teams have identical expected goals against per match at 1.7, Sandefjord leads in actual points (20 versus Start's 13), even though Start actually holds the edge in season-long expected performance, with a higher xPoints tally (25.3 vs 23.0) and higher xG per match (1.4 vs 1.2). This suggests Sandefjord has outperformed its underlying numbers so far, while Start has underperformed its expected output.

For those seeking value, the most likely result appears to be a 1-1 draw at 12%. Still, Sandefjord's slight superiority suggests a possible 2-1 outcome is worth consideration. The over 2.5 goals at 56% adds a layer of intrigue, suggesting a lean towards a more open game than the xPoints might initially imply.

Sandefjord

Form LLWDD

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #15xP/match #13Points #12

Key players

Evangelos PatoulidisRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.19
Jakob DunsbyLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.18
Vetle Walle EgeliLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08

Start

Form WLLWL

League ranking xG #11xGA #14xT #9xP/match #9Points #16

Key players

Jesper Cornelius RasmussenFxG 0.35 · xT 0.10
Hakon LorentzenFxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
Tom StrannegardLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.28

Match prediction: Sandefjord – Start

Predicted score matrix

Start →

Sandefjord →

0–05.8%

0–16.7%

0–24.5%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.8%

1–08.5%

1–111.7%

1–27.3%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.2%

2–19.3%

2–25.9%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.9%

3–15.0%

3–23.2%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.6%

4+–02.3%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-27%
5.2-07%

Expected goals

1,63–1,28

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sandefjord to win45%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sandefjord to win45%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Evangelos Patoulidis to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Evangelos Patoulidis to score28%
Erlend Segberg to be booked21%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sandefjord

Start

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sandefjord (16–24)

Start (20–41)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sandefjord

Start

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sandefjord

Start

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sandefjord	Start
Points	20	13
xPoints	23	25.3
xG per match	1.2	1.4
xGA per match	1.7	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.29

Playing style	Sandefjord	Start
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.34
Field tilt	0.42	0.32
xT per match	0.85	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	24	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	18	17
Pass completion %	0.78	0.7
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.66
Passes per match	393	288
Passes against per match	375	418
Switches of play per match	27.7	23
Long balls per match	39	37

Set pieces	Sandefjord	Start
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.13
Corners per match	5.7	4.1
Corners against per match	6.3	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.55

Other	Sandefjord	Start
Throw-in control	0.68	0.69

The goalkeepers	Elias Hadaya (Sandefjord)	Jacob Pryts (Start)
Saves	66	40
Save %	73%	52%
xG prevented	51%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sandefjord

Fixtures, form & tips

Start

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sandefjord vs Start according to our model?

The model gives Sandefjord a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sandefjord 45%, draw 25%, Start 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.