Sarpsborg vs KFUM: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Norwegian Eliteserien19 September 202611°11,7 mm13 km/h

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SarpsborgLow block & direct

KFUMBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Sarpsborg (50%)

1 · Sarpsborg 50%X 27%23% KFUM · 2

50%

27%

23%

Analysis: Sarpsborg – KFUM

Sofia Andersson · 11 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

FAKTA does not mention any betting odds from Pinnacle, so this claim is unsupported and should be removed.

Sarpsborg's recent edge over KFUM, winning three of their last five encounters since 2021, sets the stage for their upcoming clash. However, with a small sample size of only five matches, this head-to-head record carries limited weight compared to the more revealing metrics of form and expected goals. The hosts appear to have the upper hand, driven by a combination of higher expected points and a more efficient xG production rate.

Sarpsborg's potential is reflected in their xPoints of 29.8, significantly outpacing KFUM's 21.8. This difference is mirrored in their expected goals per match, where Sarpsborg averages 1.6 compared to the visitors' 1.0. Moreover, Sarpsborg's defense, albeit low in emphasis, yields a slightly better xGA at 1.4 per match against KFUM's 1.7. The model gives Sarpsborg a 50% chance of victory, a clear nod towards their overall superiority.

Despite Sarpsborg's statistical dominance, the most likely scorelines—1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%), and 2-1 (10%)—suggest a potentially narrow win or even a draw. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 55%, implying a reasonable expectation for goals, though not overwhelmingly so. Both teams scoring is equally pegged at 55%, aligning with Sarpsborg's direct attacking style and KFUM's physicality.

With the model heavily leaning towards Sarpsborg, a 2-1 victory seems the most plausible outcome. The slight lean towards over 2.5 goals accompanies this, with the hosts likely to exploit their attacking advantage against KFUM's less formidable defensive setup.

Sarpsborg

Form DLLDD

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #10xP/match #3Points #9

Key players

Daniel KarlsbakkFxG 0.39 · xT 0.05
Sondre SorliRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.10
Aimar SherCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

KFUM

Form WWDLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #10xT #13xP/match #16Points #13

Key players

Bilal NjieFxG 0.36 · xT 0.06
Teodor Berg HaltvikFxG 0.39 · xT 0.06
Magnus Wolff EikremFxG 0.14 · xT 0.31

Match prediction: Sarpsborg – KFUM

Predicted score matrix

KFUM →

Sarpsborg →

0–05.8%

0–15.4%

0–23.0%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.9%

1–110.9%

1–25.5%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.5%

2–19.9%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.9%

3–16.2%

3–23.2%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.2%

4+–14.4%

4+–22.3%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-010%
5.3-16%

Expected goals

1,87–1,04

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sarpsborg to win50%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sarpsborg to win50%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Sondre Sørli to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Sondre Sørli to score23%
Robin Gravli Rasch to be booked23%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Sarpsborg 3Draw 0KFUM 2

Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sarpsborg

KFUM

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sarpsborg (22–25)

KFUM (20–33)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sarpsborg

KFUM

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sarpsborg

KFUM

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sarpsborg	KFUM
Points	24	19
xPoints	29.8	21.8
xG per match	1.6	1
xGA per match	1.4	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.25

Playing style	Sarpsborg	KFUM
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.35
Field tilt	0.38	0.4
xT per match	1.1	0.92
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	15	11
Entries into the box against	19	17
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.71
Passes per match	325	329
Passes against per match	430	437
Switches of play per match	26.3	18.6
Long balls per match	33	27

Set pieces	Sarpsborg	KFUM
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.01
Corners per match	4.9	4.1
Corners against per match	5.4	5.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.56

Other	Sarpsborg	KFUM
Throw-in control	0.72	0.72

The goalkeepers	Leander Oy (Sarpsborg)	Emil Ødegaard (KFUM)
Saves	38	29
Save %	75%	73%
xG prevented	46%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sarpsborg

Fixtures, form & tips

KFUM

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sarpsborg vs KFUM according to our model?

The model gives Sarpsborg a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sarpsborg 50%, draw 27%, KFUM 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.