01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Viking to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Norwegian Eliteserien12°18,9 mm19 km/h
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VikingPossession & high pressvs
LillestrømPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Viking (61%)
Viking – Lillestrøm · Norwegian Eliteserien
1 · Viking 61%X 20%18% Lillestrøm · 2
61%
20%
18%
Analysis: Viking – Lillestrøm
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Viking's relentless scoring streak, now at eight consecutive league matches, sets the stage for their clash against Lillestrøm. The hosts' consistency in finding the back of the net underscores their attacking prowess, matched by the model's expectation of 1.99 goals for them. With both teams favoring a possession and high press style, the match promises plenty of action, though the forecasted 9.3 mm of rain might temper some of the attacking flair.
Viking's advantage is evident not just in their current form but also statistically, boasting a significant 65% home win rate from 83 matches. The home side's superiority is further supported by their recent head-to-head record against Lillestrøm, albeit from a small sample size of three matches, where Viking has two wins. While Lillestrøm is no pushover, their xG of 1.6 pales in comparison to Viking's 1.9, highlighting the hosts' edge in offensive output.
Despite the wet conditions, the over/under market leans heavily towards a high-scoring affair, with a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% chance of both teams scoring. This is no surprise given Viking's attacking form and Lillestrøm's potential to snatch a goal, as indicated by their xG of 1.19 in this matchup. Therefore, a 2-1 victory for Viking seems plausible, aligning with the model's most likely scoreline alongside 1-1.
While no outcome is ever guaranteed, the numbers and recent form suggest Viking is primed to extend their formidable home record.
VikingForm WWLWD
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #2Points #2
Key players
- Zlatko TripicLWxG 0.25 · xT 0.62
- Edvin AustboLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.18
- Peter ChristiansenFxG 0.36 · xT -0.02
LillestrømForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #12xP/match #4Points #5
Key players
- Ruben GabrielsenCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.10
- Lars RangerRWBxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
- Salieu DrammehRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Viking – Lillestrøm
Predicted score matrix
Lillestrøm →
Viking →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–14.6%
0–22.9%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–08.0%
1–110.1%
1–25.9%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.2%
2–19.8%
2–25.8%
2–32.3%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.5%
3–23.9%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–04.3%
4+–15.1%
4+–23.1%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
1,99–1,19
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
–
Over 2,562%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Viking to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Peter Buch Christiansen to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Peter Buch Christiansen to score33%
- Kevin Martin Krygård to be booked24%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesViking 2Draw 0Lillestrøm 1
Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 4,3)
Head-to-head based on Eliteserien data since 2021.
Key facts
- Viking FK have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Viking FK win 65% of their home matches all-time (83 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Viking
Lillestrøm
Viking (43–19)
Lillestrøm (26–26)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Viking
Lillestrøm
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Viking
Lillestrøm
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Viking | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44 | 29 |
| xPoints | 30.5 | 29 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| Playing style | Viking | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 0.92 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 372 | 409 |
| Passes against per match | 355 | 384 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.2 | 25.5 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Viking | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| Other | Viking | Lillestrøm |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Arild Ostbo (Viking) | Pontus Jacob Ragne Dahlberg (Lillestrøm) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 70 |
| Save % | 77% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 80% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Viking vs Lillestrøm according to our model?
The model gives Viking a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Viking 61%, draw 20%, Lillestrøm 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.