01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Motor Lublin or draw (X2)61%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Ekstraklasa9°0,2 mm16 km/h
Läs på svenska
Radomiak RadomCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Motor LublinBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Motor Lublin (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.57 (+5 %)
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin · Ekstraklasa
1 · Radomiak Radom 36%X 28%36% Motor Lublin · 2
36%
28%
36%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin (Ekstraklasa, Monday, 12 October 2026): Radomiak Radom win 36%, draw 28%, Motor Lublin win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Radomiak Radom 1.50, Motor Lublin 1.41. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Radomiak Radom or draw 64%, Motor Lublin or draw 64%. Prediction updated Friday, 2 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Radomiak Radom – Motor Lublin
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
The recent head-to-head between Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin offers a small sample size, with four matches since 2023. The hosts have yet to notch a victory, managing just two draws while losing twice. However, this narrow history should be weighed lightly compared to current form and expected goals. The model pegs both sides at an even 36% chance of winning, suggesting a balanced clash on the cards.
In terms of form, Radomiak has a slight edge with 8 points from their games compared to Lublin’s 6. But when delving into expected points, the visitors actually come out stronger with 11.8 over the hosts' 10.6. It reflects Motor's efficiency and potential underperformance in terms of actual points. Both teams mirror each other in expected goals per match at 1.5, but it's the defensive frailty of Radomiak, conceding an expected 2.2 goals per game, that could tip the scales in Lublin’s favor.
Considering the tactical approaches, Radomiak's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses may face challenges against Motor’s balanced and physical gameplay. The models favor a 1-1 scoreline (12%), but the 2-1 and 1-2 outcomes closely follow, underlining the thin margins in play. The model indicates a 55% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams scoring, hinting at a competitive encounter.
For bettors, the sharpest angle lies in the under 3.5 goals market. LeoVegas offers value at odds of 1.571, with a model-rated 67% chance—a juicy 5% edge. Betsafe and Nordicbet present similar value at 1.55, each with a 4% edge. This underscores a strategic opportunity, especially with both teams showing vulnerabilities that could keep this match tight.
Radomiak RadomForm DWDLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #16xP/match #14Points #14
Key players
- Rafal WolskiRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.18
- Guilherme Luiz Oliveira da SilvaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.10
- Jan GrzesikLWBxG 0.21 · xT 0.12
Motor LublinForm DLLLD
League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #6xP/match #11Points #16
Key players
- Karol CzubakFxG 0.58 · xT -0.01
- Christopher SimonRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.09
- Bartosz BereszyńskiCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Radomiak Radom – Motor Lublin
Predicted score matrix
Motor Lublin →
Radomiak Radom →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–17.4%
0–25.4%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–07.9%
1–111.9%
1–28.1%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–06.1%
2–18.6%
2–26.1%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.3%
3–23.0%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.2%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,50–1,41
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.35EV+3%
Over 2,555%
@1.53
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Motor Lublin or draw (X2)61%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Christopher Serge Simon to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Ronaldo Lumungo Afonso to score25%
- Christos Donis to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.567% probability@1.57LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.35LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- Under 3.567% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Radomiak Radom | X | 2 · Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
Odds updated 9 Oct, 18:38
Odds movement
1-2 %
42 %37 %
2.35 → 2.30
X+3 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.55
2+2 %
37 %32 %
2.60 → 2.65
LeoVegas · 10 recorded price levels · 05/10/2026 → 09/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRadomiak Radom 0Draw 2Motor Lublin 2
Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom (7–20)
Motor Lublin (9–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 6 |
| xPoints | 10.6 | 11.8 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.57 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 0.82 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 19 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 319 | 323 |
| Passes against per match | 375 | 392 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 21.5 |
| Long balls per match | 22 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| Other | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Majchrowicz (Radomiak Radom) | Gasper Tratnik (Motor Lublin) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 15 |
| Save % | 62% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 29% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Wieczysta Kraków – Wisła Płock9 October 2026
- Raków Częstochowa – GKS Katowice9 October 2026
- KS Cracovia – Zagłębie Lubin10 October 2026
- Jagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze10 October 2026
- Slask Wroclaw – Lech Poznań10 October 2026
- Legia Warszawa – Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
- Pogoń Szczecin – Korona Kielce11 October 2026
- Piast Gliwice – Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin according to our model?
The model gives Motor Lublin a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radomiak Radom 36%, draw 28%, Motor Lublin 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin?
The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Radomiak Radom and 1.41 for Motor Lublin, 2.90 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Radomiak Radom or draw (1X) 64%, Motor Lublin or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.