01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2)71%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Ekstraklasa9°1,8 mm18 km/h
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Jagiellonia BiałystokPossession controlvs
Górnik ZabrzePossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Górnik Zabrze (39%)
Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze · Ekstraklasa
1 · Jagiellonia Białystok 34%X 28%39% Górnik Zabrze · 2
34%
28%
39%
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Analysis: Jagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Across their last four encounters, Górnik Zabrze has shown a slight edge over Jagiellonia Białystok with two wins, a draw and a loss. However, this is a relatively small sample size and doesn't overshadow the more significant current form and expected goal metrics. The visitors remain unbeaten in their last five league games, hinting at a solid run of form that gives them a psychological edge.
Looking at the expected goals, Górnik Zabrze is projected to score 1.59 to Jagiellonia's 1.23, reflecting their sharper attack and tighter defense. Despite both teams favoring possession control, it’s the defensive stability of Górnik Zabrze that stands out, conceding just 1.0 xGA per game compared to Jagiellonia’s more porous 1.6 xGA. This defensive edge could prove decisive.
The model slightly favors Górnik Zabrze, assigning them a 39% chance of victory versus Jagiellonia's 34%. The most likely outcomes are a 1-1 draw or a narrow win for the visitors, either 1-2 or 0-1. Given that both teams score in 57% of matches and there's a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, a cautious approach leans towards a lower-scoring affair. A 1-1 draw remains a reasonable expectation, although the visitors could edge it with their current form.
Assessing the betting landscape, there's potential value in backing Górnik Zabrze to win at odds of 2.50 with Bet365. While not a guarantee, the combination of their unbeaten streak and superior defensive record provides a compelling argument for this investment. Such well-reasoned plays, devoid of unnecessary risks, are what keep the betting ledger in the black.
Jagiellonia BiałystokForm WLWLL
League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #15Points #9
Key players
- Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaLBxG 0.13 · xT 0.23
- Kajetan SzmytLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11
- Norbert WojtuszekRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Górnik ZabrzeForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #2xT #10xP/match #4Points #1
Key players
- Erik JanžaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
- Maksym KhlanLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.11
- Lukáš SadílekRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Jagiellonia Białystok – Górnik Zabrze
Predicted score matrix
Górnik Zabrze →
Jagiellonia Białystok →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–19.1%
0–27.5%
0–34.0%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–07.0%
1–112.0%
1–29.3%
1–34.9%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.2%
2–25.7%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–01.8%
3–12.9%
3–22.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,23–1,59
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.05
Over 2,554%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Górnik Zabrze or draw (X2)71%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Erik Prekop to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Nik Prelec to score23%
- Jarosław Kubicki to be booked24%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Jagiellonia Białystok | X | 2 · Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.52 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.52 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJagiellonia Białystok 1Draw 1Górnik Zabrze 2
Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Key facts
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
Jagiellonia Białystok (12–13)
Górnik Zabrze (16–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Jagiellonia Białystok
Górnik Zabrze
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Jagiellonia Białystok | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 22 |
| xPoints | 9.3 | 15.1 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Jagiellonia Białystok | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 405 | 336 |
| Passes against per match | 285 | 359 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.6 | 21.4 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Jagiellonia Białystok | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| Other | Jagiellonia Białystok | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Slawomir Abramowicz (Jagiellonia Białystok) | Philipp Schulze (Górnik Zabrze) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 21 |
| Save % | 66% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Jagiellonia Białystok vs Górnik Zabrze according to our model?
The model gives Górnik Zabrze a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jagiellonia Białystok 34%, draw 28%, Górnik Zabrze 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.