01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Piast Gliwice or draw (1X)70%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Ekstraklasa11°1,8 mm19 km/h
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Piast GliwiceBalanced & physicalvs
Widzew ŁódźPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Piast Gliwice (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.72 (+8 %)
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź · Ekstraklasa
1 · Piast Gliwice 39%X 27%34% Widzew Łódź · 2
39%
27%
34%
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Analysis: Piast Gliwice – Widzew Łódź
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Four matches into their recent head-to-head, Piast Gliwice has yet to take a point from Widzew Łódź. While the sample is small, it hints at a psychological edge for the visitors. Still, the hosts find themselves slightly favored by the models, perhaps due to their superior standing in the league with 13 points compared to Widzew's 9. Numbers reveal Piast's balanced and physical approach against Widzew's possession-heavy, high-press strategy, which creates a clash of styles on the field.
Despite Piast Gliwice's superior position in the table, Widzew Łódź's underlying metrics tell a different story. Their xPoints (13.0) outstrip Piast's (9.8), and they enjoy the advantage in both xG per match (1.6 vs 1.2) and xGA per match (1.4 vs 1.8). It suggests Widzew may have been underperforming their actual potential relative to the league standings. Yet, the expected goals for this encounter see Piast slightly ahead at 1.77 to Widzew's 1.42, supporting the model's initial lean towards the hosts.
Over 2.5 goals looks a strong play here, with a 62% probability suggesting an open game despite Widzew's edge in defensive metrics. With both teams to score at 63%, a 2-1 scoreline for Piast stands out at 9% likelihood.
Piast GliwiceForm DWWWL
League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #17xP/match #16Points #8
Key players
- Hugo Claudio Vallejo AvilésLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.03
- Leandro SancaLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11
- Ivan Correia Posser LimaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
Widzew ŁódźForm DLDDD
League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #8xP/match #7Points #12
Key players
- Juljan ShehuCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
- Mario García AlvearLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
- Francisco Javier Álvarez RodríguezCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Piast Gliwice – Widzew Łódź
Predicted score matrix
Widzew Łódź →
Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–15.5%
0–24.1%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.0%
1–110.6%
1–27.3%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.5%
2–19.2%
2–26.5%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.4%
3–23.8%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.6%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,77–1,42
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.10
Over 2,562%
@1.72EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Piast Gliwice or draw (1X)70%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Leandro Mário Baldé Sanca to score27%
- Giannis Papanikolaou to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.540% probability@2.72BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.540% probability@2.72NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
- Over 4.522% probability@4.90BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Piast Gliwice | X | 2 · Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 2.68 | 3.46 | 2.52 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 15:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPiast Gliwice 0Draw 0Widzew Łódź 4
Goals: 1–7 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Piast Gliwice
Widzew Łódź
Piast Gliwice (16–15)
Widzew Łódź (13–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Piast Gliwice
Widzew Łódź
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Piast Gliwice
Widzew Łódź
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Piast Gliwice | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 9 |
| xPoints | 9.8 | 13 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Playing style | Piast Gliwice | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.79 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 408 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 290 | 336 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.4 | 27 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Piast Gliwice | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 5.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| Other | Piast Gliwice | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Domen Gril (Piast Gliwice) | Bartłomiej Drągowski (Widzew Łódź) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 30 |
| Save % | 69% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 80% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź according to our model?
The model gives Piast Gliwice a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Piast Gliwice 39%, draw 27%, Widzew Łódź 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.