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    Wisła PłockWisła PłockCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    KS CracoviaKS CracoviaCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · KS Cracovia (42%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 8.00 (+37 %)

    Wisła Płock – KS Cracovia · Ekstraklasa

    1 · Wisła Płock 32%X 26%42% KS Cracovia · 2

    Analysis: Wisła Płock – KS Cracovia

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Three consecutive losses hang over Wisła Płock like a cloud as they face KS Cracovia, who hold a 42% model-backed chance of victory. The visitors' tactical mirror — counter attacks and crosses — offers little contrast, but the numbers tip in their favor. Cracovia’s sharper edge in expected goals (1.64 to 1.28) and expected points (9.3 to 6.0) suggests they're more efficient in exploiting similar opportunities.

    Wisła Płock may draw some confidence from a small head-to-head sample, having not lost against Cracovia since 2023. Yet, that's a narrow plank of form to stand on. Their defensive frailty, conceding 1.8 xGA per match compared to Cracovia's tighter 1.3, underscores a vulnerability that the visitors are well-equipped to exploit. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 (12%) and 1-2 (9%), reflect a tight contest with a slight tilt toward Cracovia.

    The model's 56% probability for over 2.5 goals indicates a higher scoring potential, while both teams to score is pegged at 58%. With Cracovia's tactical alignment and recent form, an away win is the sharpest angle to consider.

    Wisła PłockWisła Płock
    Form WDLLL
    League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #15xP/match #15Points #16
    Key players
    • Marcus Haglind SangreCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    • Jorge JimenezFxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
    • Žan RogeljRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
    KS CracoviaKS Cracovia
    Form LDWWL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #3xP/match #6Points #8
    Key players
    • Ajdin HasicRWxG 0.41 · xT 0.35
    • Mateusz Andrzej KlichCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
    • Otar KakabadzeRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15

    Match prediction: Wisła Płock – KS Cracovia

    Predicted score matrix

    KS Cracovia →
    Wisła Płock →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–18.5%
    0–27.2%
    0–33.9%
    0–4+2.3%
    1
    1–06.6%
    1–111.7%
    1–29.3%
    1–35.1%
    1–4+3.0%
    2
    2–04.4%
    2–17.3%
    2–25.9%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.9%
    3
    3–01.9%
    3–13.1%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–00.8%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-17%
    5. 5.0-27%
    Expected goals
    1,28–1,64
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @1.65
    Over 2,556%
    @2.12EV+18%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.78

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance KS Cracovia or draw (X2)70%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Karol Knap to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Saïd Hamulić to score21%
    • Amir Fouad Aboud Al Ammari to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.517% probability@8.00Paddy PowerEV+37%reference odds
    • Over 3.533% probability@4.00Paddy PowerEV+34%reference odds
    • Over 3.533% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Wisła PłockX2 · KS Cracovia
    Betsafe2.553.10
    EV+ 10%
    2.62
    Betsson2.553.10
    EV+ 10%
    2.62
    Nordicbet2.553.10
    EV+ 10%
    2.62
    Paddy Power2.503.10
    EV+ 5%
    2.50

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 16:13

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Wisła Płock 1Draw 1KS Cracovia 0
    Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)

    Head-to-head based on Ekstraklasa data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Wisla Plock have lost 3 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wisła Płock
    KS Cracovia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wisła Płock (3–10)
    KS Cracovia (6–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wisła Płock
    Marcin Kaminski: 231 passningar, xT 0.16KaminskiMarcus Haglind Sangre: 222 passningar, xT 0.35SangreAdam Radwanski: 208 passningar, xT 0.53RadwanskiŽan Rogelj: 162 passningar, xT 0.19RogeljRafal Leszczynski: 148 passningar, xT 0.22LeszczynskiPatryk Kun: 138 passningar, xT 0.77KunAfonso Rodrigues e Silva: 117 passningar, xT 0.31SilvaDani Pacheco: 100 passningar, xT 0.47PachecoDion Gallapeni: 81 passningar, xT 0.57GallapeniJorge Jimenez: 76 passningar, xT 0.28JimenezKrystian Pomorski: 75 passningar, xT 0.03Pomorski
    KS Cracovia
    Mateusz Andrzej Klich: 195 passningar, xT 1.24KlichAmir Al Ammari: 182 passningar, xT 0.48AmmariBrahim Traoré: 181 passningar, xT 0.17TraoréAjdin Hasic: 168 passningar, xT 1.25HasicMauro Perkovic: 157 passningar, xT 0.84PerkovicGustav Henriksson: 130 passningar, xT 0.13HenrikssonOtar Kakabadze: 110 passningar, xT 0.37KakabadzeSebastian Madejski: 101 passningar, xT 0.06MadejskiDijon Kameri: 96 passningar, xT 0.01KameriDominik Pila: 86 passningar, xT 0.21PilaMartin Minchev: 51 passningar, xT 0.69Minchev
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wisła Płock
    Marcin Kaminski: 231 passningar, xT 0.16KaminskiMarcus Haglind Sangre: 222 passningar, xT 0.35SangreAdam Radwanski: 208 passningar, xT 0.53RadwanskiŽan Rogelj: 162 passningar, xT 0.19RogeljRafal Leszczynski: 148 passningar, xT 0.22LeszczynskiPatryk Kun: 138 passningar, xT 0.77KunAfonso Rodrigues e Silva: 117 passningar, xT 0.31SilvaDani Pacheco: 100 passningar, xT 0.47PachecoDion Gallapeni: 81 passningar, xT 0.57GallapeniJorge Jimenez: 76 passningar, xT 0.28JimenezKrystian Pomorski: 75 passningar, xT 0.03Pomorski
    KS Cracovia
    Mateusz Andrzej Klich: 195 passningar, xT 1.24KlichAmir Al Ammari: 182 passningar, xT 0.48AmmariBrahim Traoré: 181 passningar, xT 0.17TraoréAjdin Hasic: 168 passningar, xT 1.25HasicMauro Perkovic: 157 passningar, xT 0.84PerkovicGustav Henriksson: 130 passningar, xT 0.13HenrikssonOtar Kakabadze: 110 passningar, xT 0.37KakabadzeSebastian Madejski: 101 passningar, xT 0.06MadejskiDijon Kameri: 96 passningar, xT 0.01KameriDominik Pila: 86 passningar, xT 0.21PilaMartin Minchev: 51 passningar, xT 0.69Minchev

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWisła PłockKS Cracovia
    Points48
    xPoints69.3
    xG per match1.51.8
    xGA per match1.81.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.25
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.350.21
    Playing styleWisła PłockKS Cracovia
    Build-up efficiency0.330.31
    Field tilt0.440.49
    xT per match0.981.3
    xTA per match1.10.9
    Won balls, offensive half2626
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.250.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.25
    Entries into the box per match1615
    Entries into the box against1114
    Pass completion %0.760.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.67
    Passes per match364312
    Passes against per match328336
    Switches of play per match29.417.9
    Long balls per match3023
    Set piecesWisła PłockKS Cracovia
    xG from free kicks0.010.03
    Corners per match8.17.3
    Corners against per match3.27
    xG per corner0.040.05
    xGA per corner against0.020.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.52
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.64
    OtherWisła PłockKS Cracovia
    Throw-in control0.860.77
    The goalkeepersRafal Leszczynski (Wisła Płock)Sebastian Madejski (KS Cracovia)
    Saves1318
    Save %56%72%
    xG prevented40%30%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wisła Płock vs KS Cracovia according to our model?

    The model gives KS Cracovia a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wisła Płock 32%, draw 26%, KS Cracovia 42%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.