Academico Viseu vs Vitória de Guimarães: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Primeira Liga13 September 2026Estádio do Fontelo, Viseu24°13 km/h

Läs på svenska

Academico ViseuPossession control

Vitória de GuimarãesPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Vitória de Guimarães (42%)Best value by the model: 1 · Academico Viseu @ 3.77 (+4 %)

1 · Academico Viseu 28%X 31%42% Vitória de Guimarães · 2

28%

31%

42%

Analysis: Academico Viseu – Vitória de Guimarães

Erik Lindberg · 8 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

In the clash between Academico Viseu and Vitória de Guimarães, the latter's expected goals figure of 1.8 per match starkly contrasts with the home side's 0.77. This discrepancy highlights why Guimarães is favored at 42% to triumph. Despite lagging behind in points, they're the more efficient team when it comes to creating chances.

Academico Viseu may sit ahead on the table, but their standing feels precarious. Their xPoints of 3.6 starkly undershoot their actual tally of five, suggesting overperformance. Meanwhile, the visitors, with 9.5 xPoints, arguably deserve a better fate than their current four points indicate. This mismatch underscores a likely regression for both clubs towards their expected stats.

Both sides adopt a possession-based style, which could lead to a cautious affair. With expected goals of just 1.24 for Viseu and 1.31 for Guimarães, the model suggests a tightly contested match, as reflected in the most probable scorelines of 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (10%). The over/under leans slightly under 2.5 goals (47%), indicating a low-scoring match is on the cards.

Defensively, Guimarães holds a significant advantage, conceding just 0.5 xGA per match compared to Viseu's concerning 1.9. This defensive solidity could be the key differentiator, potentially stifling the hosts' attacking efforts. The combination of Guimarães's defensive resilience and a marginal attacking edge suggests they’re poised to take all three points, albeit likely by a slim margin.

The sharpest angle for bettors may well be Vitória de Guimarães to win at odds of 2.30 with Bet365. Their defensive strength and superior xG metrics provide a solid foundation for the value hunters, with the likely outcome leaning towards a narrow 1-0 victory for the visitors.

Academico Viseu

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #15xGA #17xT #16xP/match #17Points #10

Key players

André Clóvis Silva FilhoFxG 0.20 · xT 0.00
João Guilherme de Sousa CrispimRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.03
Cihan KahramanRWxG 0.04 · xT -0.01

Vitória de Guimarães

Form LLWLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #3xP/match #5Points #12

Key players

Alioune NdoyeFxG 0.48 · xT 0.06
Gustavo SilvaRWxG 0.44 · xT 0.16
Tony StrataRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.33

Match prediction: Academico Viseu – Vitória de Guimarães

Predicted score matrix

Vitória de Guimarães →

Academico Viseu →

0–08.2%

0–19.9%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.3%

1–113.1%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.8%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,24–1,31

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.72

Over 2,547%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vitória de Guimarães or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vitória de Guimarães or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Gustavo da Silva Cunha to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
André Clóvis Silva Filho to score24%
Luís Manuel da Costa Silva to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Academico Viseu28% probability@3.77PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.37PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Academico Viseu	X	2 · Vitória de Guimarães
Betsafe	3.55	EV+ 1% 3.30	2.02
Betsson	3.55	EV+ 1% 3.30	2.02
Nordicbet	3.55	EV+ 1% 3.30	2.02
Pinnacle	EV+ 4% 3.77	EV+ 3% 3.37	2.03

Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:06

Odds movement

1+4 %

28 %23 %

3.62 → 3.77

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.27 → 3.37

2-4 %

49 %44 %

2.12 → 2.03

Over 2,5+1 %

48 %43 %

2.10 → 2.12

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Academico Viseu

Vitória de Guimarães

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Academico Viseu (5–8)

Vitória de Guimarães (3–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Academico Viseu

Vitória de Guimarães

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Academico Viseu

Vitória de Guimarães

The teams in numbers

Performance	Academico Viseu	Vitória de Guimarães
Points	5	4
xPoints	3.6	9.5
xG per match	0.77	1.8
xGA per match	1.9	0.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.13	0.41
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.18

Playing style	Academico Viseu	Vitória de Guimarães
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.31
Field tilt	0.3	0.62
xT per match	0.53	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	0.42
Won balls, offensive half	15	35
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.22
Entries into the box per match	9	14
Entries into the box against	16	8
Pass completion %	0.77	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.69
Passes per match	335	371
Passes against per match	366	319
Switches of play per match	35.4	38
Long balls per match	39	41

Set pieces	Academico Viseu	Vitória de Guimarães
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.03
Corners per match	2.6	5.7
Corners against per match	4.7	3.1
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.46	0.56

Other	Academico Viseu	Vitória de Guimarães
Throw-in control	0.69	0.81

The goalkeepers	Ewerton Ferreira da Silva (Academico Viseu)	Oliwier Zych (Vitória de Guimarães)
Saves	19	7
Save %	70%	58%
xG prevented	44%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Academico Viseu vs Vitória de Guimarães according to our model?

The model gives Vitória de Guimarães a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Academico Viseu 28%, draw 31%, Vitória de Guimarães 42%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.