Maritimo vs Academico Viseu: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Primeira Liga23 August 2026Estádio dos Barreiros, Funchal21°0,3 mm9 km/h

MaritimoPossession control

Academico ViseuCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Maritimo (46%)Best value by the model: 2 · Academico Viseu @ 3.95 (+1 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Maritimo 46%X 29%26% Academico Viseu · 2

46%

29%

26%

Analysis: Maritimo – Academico Viseu

Sofia Andersson · 18 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Six points versus one. There's the raw arithmetic of this Maritimo vs Academico Viseu clash. But delve deeper, and you find even more weighty evidence backing the islanders. With a model probability tipping a 46% chance for a home win, Maritimo stands a clear favorite. The most likely scorelines—1-1, 1-0, and 2-1—all suggest a slight edge to Maritimo, with the numbers backing a tight affair.

Maritimo, with their possession-control style, will likely dominate the ball, facing a Viseu side reliant on counter-attacks and crosses. Yet, it's Maritimo's defensive solidity that truly shines here. Despite their modest xPoints advantage (4.0 to 1.0), it's the xGA figures that reveal a gaping chasm: Maritimo's 0.64 to Viseu's 2.3. This suggests that while Maritimo may not explode with goals, they are certainly adept at stifling their opponent's advances.

Academico Viseu's measly xG of 0.7 per match reflects their struggle to create meaningful chances. When you're matching up against a team with an xGA of just 0.64, that doesn't bode well for your prospects. And although both teams are more than capable of finding the net (52% both teams to score), Maritimo seems more likely to emerge on top.

Maritimo are favored across the board: xG, xGA, current points, and model probabilities. These indicators point to a likely 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline in their favor, with the match leaning under the 2.5 goals mark at 53%.

For the sharp punters, the real value might be found in Maritimo to win at odds of 2.10 with Bet365. While no betting outcome is ever certain, the numbers decidedly favor a win for the home side, and the odds suggest this bet could be worth a look.

Maritimo

Form WW

League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #7xP/match #4Points #2

Key players

Adrián Butzke BenavidesLWxG 0.11 · xT 0.19
Mohamed Bouzaidi DiouriRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
Martín Tejón FauliCAMxG 0.48 · xT 0.30

Academico Viseu

Form DL

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #13xP/match #17Points #14

Key players

Anthony CorreiaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Ricardo Alexandre Ribeiro VieiraRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.25
Ruben PereiraCBxG 0.30 · xT 0.06

Match prediction: Maritimo – Academico Viseu

Predicted score matrix

Academico Viseu →

Maritimo →

0–08.2%

0–18.5%

0–25.0%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.7%

1–112.9%

1–27.1%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–18.9%

2–25.0%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.7%

3–14.2%

3–22.4%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,41–1,13

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.65

Over 2,547%

@2.12

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Maritimo to win46%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Maritimo to win46%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Adrián Butzke Benavides to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Adrián Butzke Benavides to score28%
Raphael Gregório Guzzo to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Academico Viseu26% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
2 · Academico Viseu26% probability@3.95BetssonEV+1%reference odds
2 · Academico Viseu26% probability@3.95NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Maritimo	X	2 · Academico Viseu
Betsafe	1.92	3.30	EV+ 1% 3.95
Betsson	1.92	3.30	EV+ 1% 3.95
Nordicbet	1.92	3.30	EV+ 1% 3.95

Odds updated 19 Aug, 14:36

Odds movement

1-5 %

49 %44 %

2.02 → 1.92

X+3 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.30

2+7 %

28 %23 %

3.70 → 3.95

Over 2,5-4 %

46 %41 %

2.22 → 2.12

Betsafe · 20 recorded price levels · 17/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Maritimo

Academico Viseu

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Maritimo (3–1)

Academico Viseu (2–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Academico Viseu

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Maritimo

Academico Viseu

The teams in numbers

Performance	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
Points	6	1
xPoints	4	1
xG per match	1.1	0.7
xGA per match	0.64	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.48

Playing style	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.33	0.3
xT per match	0.94	0.7
xTA per match	1.2	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	25	15
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.32
Entries into the box per match	11	10
Entries into the box against	11	20
Pass completion %	0.71	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.76
Passes per match	240	333
Passes against per match	491	350
Switches of play per match	16.8	30.1
Long balls per match	24	30

Set pieces	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
xG from free kicks	0	0.01
Corners per match	1.5	3
Corners against per match	5.4	5.9
xG per corner	0.12	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.82	0.58

Other	Maritimo	Academico Viseu
Throw-in control	0.72	0.68

The goalkeepers	Alfonso Pastor Vacas (Maritimo)	Ewerton Ferreira da Silva (Academico Viseu)
Saves	7	9
Save %	88%	75%
xG prevented	94%	60%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Maritimo vs Academico Viseu according to our model?

The model gives Maritimo a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Maritimo 46%, draw 29%, Academico Viseu 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.