01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Celtic to win71%
- Over 1.5 goals90%
Scottish PremiershipFalkirk Stadium, Falkirk6°7 km/h
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FalkirkPossession controlvs
CelticPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Celtic (71%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 1.95 (+3 %)
Falkirk vs Celtic · Scottish Premiership
1 · Falkirk 12%X 16%71% Celtic · 2
12%
16%
71%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Falkirk vs Celtic (Scottish Premiership, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Falkirk win 12%, draw 16%, Celtic win 71%. Expected goals (xG): Falkirk 1.07, Celtic 2.74. Most likely score: 1-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Falkirk or draw 29%, Celtic or draw 88%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
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Analysis: Falkirk – Celtic
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
71% is the number: the model makes Celtic clear favourites, against Falkirk’s 12% and a 16% draw chance. It points to a 1-2 away win as the most likely scoreline at 9%, with 0-2 and 1-3 both at 8%. The over 2.5 lean is firm at 73%; 2.74 expected goals for the visitors against 1.07 for the hosts explains why.
Falkirk have scored in 8 consecutive league matches, but Celtic arrive on 3 straight wins and hold every meaningful season edge: 27 points to 12, 18.5 xPoints to 12.3, 2.7 xG per match to 1.2, and 1.0 xGA to 1.6. The five-match head-to-head since 2023 is a small sample and weighs less than form and expected goals, though 0W 0D 5L for the hosts fits the broader picture. Falkirk’s possession control meets the visitors’ possession and high press.
Over 4.5 at 3.05 is assessed EV+ at both Betsafe and LeoVegas, with a 33% model rating and a 2% edge. The sharper value call is over 3.5 at LeoVegas, 1.952: 53% model probability and a 3% edge.
FalkirkForm WDLWW
League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #11xP/match #8Points #7
Key players
- Ryan StrainRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
- Brad SpencerCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.13
- Deniss MeļņiksCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
CelticForm WLWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Liam ScalesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.15
- Hyun-Jun YangLWxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
- Callum McgregorCDMxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Falkirk – Celtic
Predicted score matrix
Celtic →
Falkirk →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.4%
0–15.9%
0–28.3%
0–37.6%
0–4+10.1%
1
1–02.2%
1–16.7%
1–28.9%
1–38.1%
1–4+10.8%
2
2–01.3%
2–13.5%
2–24.8%
2–34.4%
2–4+5.8%
3
3–00.5%
3–11.2%
3–21.7%
3–31.6%
3–4+2.1%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-29%
- 2.0-28%
- 3.1-38%
- 4.0-38%
- 5.1-17%
Expected goals
1,07–2,74
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,80
18%
216%
320%
419%
5+33%
Under 2,527%
@2.95
Over 2,573%
@1.37EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Celtic to win71%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Camilo Andres Durán Marquez to score45%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals73%
- Camilo Andres Durán Marquez to score45%
- Brad Spencer to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.553% probability@1.95LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- Over 4.533% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- Over 4.533% probability@3.05LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Falkirk | X | 2 · Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 7.80 | 4.80 | 1.34 |
| LeoVegas | 7.00 | 5.40 | 1.31 |
| Nordicbet | 7.80 | 4.80 | 1.34 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 01:36
Odds movement
1-7 %
15 %10 %
7.50 → 7.00
X0 %
20 %15 %
5.40 → 5.40
2+2 %
73 %68 %
1.29 → 1.31
Over 2,5+1 %
70 %65 %
1.35 → 1.36
LeoVegas · 7 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesFalkirk 0Draw 0Celtic 5
Goals: 2–12 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- Celtic FC dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
- Falkirk have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
- Celtic FC come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Falkirk
Celtic
Falkirk (12–12)
Celtic (25–6)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Falkirk
Celtic
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Falkirk
Celtic
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Falkirk | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12 | 27 |
| xPoints | 12.3 | 18.5 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.19 | 0.66 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.33 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Falkirk | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.7 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.64 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 312 | 537 |
| Passes against per match | 374 | 322 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.6 | 33.5 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Falkirk | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 8.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.5 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| Other | Falkirk | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Scott Bain (Falkirk) | Viljami Sinisalo (Celtic) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 40 | 28 |
| Save % | 77% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 61% | 69% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Falkirk vs Celtic according to our model?
The model gives Celtic a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Falkirk 12%, draw 16%, Celtic 71%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 9% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Falkirk vs Celtic?
The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Falkirk and 2.74 for Celtic, 3.81 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Falkirk or draw (1X) 29%, Celtic or draw (X2) 88% and no draw (12) 84%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.