Mačva Šabac vs Mladost Lučani: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Serbian Super League19 September 202619°11 km/h

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Mačva ŠabacLow block & direct

Mladost LučaniLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Mladost Lučani (39%)

1 · Mačva Šabac 33%X 28%39% Mladost Lučani · 2

33%

28%

39%

Analysis: Mačva Šabac – Mladost Lučani

Erik Lindberg · 11 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Mladost Lučani's slight edge is backed by their 39% win probability, outperforming Mačva Šabac's 33%. The match's low expected goals — a modest 1.08 for the hosts and 1.31 for the visitors — hints at a likely defensive struggle. Mačva Šabac's vulnerability is evident in their 1.9 xGA per match, showcasing their defensive frailties compared to Mladost's tighter 1.3 xGA.

The most probable scorelines reinforce the expectation of a low-scoring affair, with a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 0-1 result at 12%. Both teams play a low defence and direct style, which can stifle goal opportunities. It's clear that Mladost Lučani have the upper hand in current form and metrics, including their superior point tally and xPoints.

With the over 2.5 goals chance sitting at just 43%, this game leans heavily towards an under, aligning with the defensive profiles of both teams. The safest call might be a narrow 1-0 victory for Mladost Lučani.

Mačva Šabac

Form WLWDD

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #15xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Bosko VrastanovicFxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
Luka PejovicLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
Milan VidakovFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05

Mladost Lučani

Form DWWLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #8xT #14xP/match #7Points #4

Key players

Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.34 · xT -0.01
Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Mihailo TodosijevićFxG 0.27 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Mačva Šabac – Mladost Lučani

Predicted score matrix

Mladost Lučani →

Mačva Šabac →

0–09.5%

0–111.6%

0–27.8%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.5%

1–113.3%

1–28.5%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–05.4%

2–17.0%

2–24.6%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.9%

3–12.5%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,08–1,31

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,557%

–

Over 2,543%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Mladost Lučani or draw (X2)70%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Mladost Lučani or draw (X2)70%
Under 2.5 goals57%
John Mary Honi Uzuegbunam to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Milan Vidakov to score28%
Dušan Jovančić to be booked22%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mačva Šabac

Mladost Lučani

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mačva Šabac (5–13)

Mladost Lučani (8–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mačva Šabac

Mladost Lučani

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mačva Šabac

Mladost Lučani

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
Points	8	13
xPoints	8.8	11.5
xG per match	0.71	0.95
xGA per match	1.9	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.17

Playing style	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
Build-up efficiency	0.21	0.28
Field tilt	0.23	0.26
xT per match	0.6	0.75
xTA per match	1.5	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	16	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.17	0.18
Entries into the box per match	7	10
Entries into the box against	17	16
Pass completion %	0.65	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.62	0.63
Passes per match	203	248
Passes against per match	368	432
Switches of play per match	13.8	11.8
Long balls per match	20	25

Set pieces	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.06
Corners per match	2.5	3
Corners against per match	5.8	5.6
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.66

Other	Mačva Šabac	Mladost Lučani
Throw-in control	0.61	0.64

The goalkeepers	Kosta Rakonić (Mačva Šabac)	Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani)
Saves	18	38
Save %	62%	86%
xG prevented	42%	86%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mačva Šabac

Fixtures, form & tips

Mladost Lučani

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mačva Šabac vs Mladost Lučani according to our model?

The model gives Mladost Lučani a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mačva Šabac 33%, draw 28%, Mladost Lučani 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.