01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Čukarički or draw (X2)67%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Serbian Super League24°12 km/h
Läs på svenska
Mladost LučaniLow block & direct2–2
ČukaričkiLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Čukarički (40%)
Mladost Lučani – Čukarički · Serbian Super League
1 · Mladost Lučani 32%X 28%40% Čukarički · 2
32%
28%
40%
Analysis: Mladost Lučani – Čukarički
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A clash of styles, yet similar tactics, sets the stage as FK Mladost Lucani hosts FK Cukaricki in a Serbian Super League matchup that feels like a finely balanced coin toss. The probabilities tip slightly towards the visitors, with FK Cukaricki holding a 40% chance of victory against Mladost’s 32%. FK Cukaricki’s scoring potential shines through, boasting 1.5 expected goals per match compared to the host's paltry 0.62. This offensive lean aligns with their edge in xPoints as well, sitting at 5.5 against Mladost’s 3.5, suggesting that FK Cukaricki may just have the sharper incisors.
FK Mladost Lucani, despite notching an unbeaten run in their last five league matches, grapple with a porous defense, conceding an average of 1.7 xGA per game. Even with a small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2023 showing a balanced record (1W 2D 1L), it's the form and expected goals that demand attention. FK Cukaricki’s slightly superior offensive threat, coupled with Mladost’s defensive frailties, skew the scales in the visitors’ favor.
Weather doesn't loom large this time, so the numbers aren't obscured by rain or wind. Yet, a model that pegs the over/under at 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score suggests a cagey affair. The projected scorelines—1-1 at 13% and 0-1 at 10%—reinforce this, leaning towards a low-scoring draw or a narrow away victory.
FK Cukaricki's value shines in the betting market, offering potential gains for the sharp-eyed punter. Paddy Power lists them at odds of 3.0, a juicy proposition given the model rates their victory likelihood at 40%, representing a 21% edge. While football is never a certainty, the numbers suggest that FK Cukaricki, against a backdrop of Mladost’s resolve and vulnerabilities, could well be the smart choice for those seeking a calculated gamble.
Mladost LučaniForm WDDDD
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #12xP/match #10Points #9
Key players
- Mihailo TodosijevićCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.01
- John Mary Honi UzuegbunamFxG 0.13 · xT -0.02
- Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
ČukaričkiForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #6xP/match #3Points #4
Key players
- Marko DocićFxG 0.09 · xT 0.09
- Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.55 · xT 0.20
- Milan DjokovicFxG 0.16 · xT 0.20
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Mladost Lučani 32% · Draw 28% · Čukarički 40%
Match prediction: Mladost Lučani – Čukarički
Predicted score matrix
Čukarički →
Mladost Lučani →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.1%
0–110.1%
0–27.1%
0–33.2%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–09.0%
1–113.0%
1–28.5%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.8%
2
2–05.6%
2–17.6%
2–25.2%
2–32.3%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.1%
3–22.1%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,21–1,35
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,553%
@1.75
Over 2,547%
@2.19EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Čukarički or draw (X2)67%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- Uroš Miladinović to score16%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- John Mary Honi Uzuegbunam to score20%
- Milan Djokovic to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Čukarički40% probability@3.06PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
- 2 · Čukarički40% probability@3.00Paddy PowerEV+21%reference odds
- Over 2.547% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mladost Lučani | X | 2 · Čukarički |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.30 | EV+ 21% 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 2.68 | EV+ 23% 3.06 |
Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:50
Odds movement
1-5 %
37 %32 %
2.70 → 2.56
X+2 %
37 %32 %
2.62 → 2.68
2+5 %
33 %28 %
2.91 → 3.06
Over 2,5-1 %
45 %40 %
2.22 → 2.19
Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 06/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMladost Lučani 1Draw 2Čukarički 1
Goals: 5–5 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Mladost Lucani are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mladost Lučani
Čukarički
Mladost Lučani (1–1)
Čukarički (5–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mladost Lučani
Čukarički
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mladost Lučani
Čukarički
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mladost Lučani | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| xG per match | 0.62 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.5 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| Playing style | Mladost Lučani | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 0.49 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| Passes per match | 186 | 203 |
| Passes against per match | 513 | 346 |
| Switches of play per match | 8.4 | 16.2 |
| Long balls per match | 19 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Mladost Lučani | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 2.6 |
| Corners against per match | 6.8 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| Other | Mladost Lučani | Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani) | Đorđe Nikolić (Čukarički) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 15 |
| Save % | 95% | 94% |
| xG prevented | 99% | 93% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mladost Lučani vs Čukarički according to our model?
The model gives Čukarički a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladost Lučani 32%, draw 28%, Čukarički 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.