Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica: Prediction & Odds (9 Aug 2026)

Serbian Super League9 August 2026Karađorđe-stadion, Novi Sad27°9 km/h

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VojvodinaPossession control

2–1

Radnik SurdulicaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Vojvodina (59%)Best value by the model: 2 · Radnik Surdulica @ 8.50 (+33 %)

1 · Vojvodina 59%X 26%16% Radnik Surdulica · 2

59%

26%

16%

Analysis: Vojvodina – Radnik Surdulica

Sofia Andersson · 6 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Four wins in five meetings: that's the control FK Vojvodina Novi Sad holds over FK Radnik Surdulica in their recent head-to-head encounters. While this historical dominance might suggest a straightforward outcome, the betting landscape offers intriguing angles, especially with a high average of 3.6 goals per match between these sides. Yet, the model leans towards a more controlled affair this time, with FK Vojvodina Novi Sad as clear favourites at 59% and likely scorelines suggesting a tighter contest—1-0 and 2-0 both sit at the forefront.

FK Vojvodina Novi Sad, with their possession-based approach, will look to dictate the game's tempo. Despite their defensive vulnerabilities—conceding an average xGA of 1.6 per match—they've managed to outclass FK Radnik Surdulica, who lean on a high press and quick transitions. FK Radnik Surdulica might find joy in exploiting FK Vojvodina's defensive lapses, but the home side's offensive prowess and historical edge could prove too much to overcome.

Numbers can often tell a compelling story, and the expected goals (xG) figures underline FK Vojvodina Novi Sad's attacking advantage: 1.74 against FK Radnik Surdulica's 0.86. However, the visitors can boast of a stronger defensive record, conceding just 0.72 xGA per match, potentially making life difficult for the home side's forwards. Still, with the model predicting a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals, this clash could offer more excitement than expected.

While FK Vojvodina Novi Sad are rightly tipped to edge this fixture, bettors might find value in exploring the less obvious avenues. Paddy Power's odds of 8.5 for FK Radnik Surdulica offer a tasty 33% edge, reflecting the possibility of an upset. For those favoring a more conservative outlook, the draw at 4.75 presents a 21% edge, while an under 1.5 goal outcome, priced at 4.0, provides a 6% edge for those expecting a cagier battle. Keep an eye on these angles, as they might just hold the key to unlocking some value in an otherwise straightforward contest.

Vojvodina

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #7xP/match #6Points #3

Key players

Nardin MulahusejnovicFxG 0.92 · xT 0.06
Lazar RanđelovićRWxG 0.32 · xT 0.20
Njegoš PetrovićCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Radnik Surdulica

Form DDLDD

League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #3xP/match #4Points #11

Key players

Sadick AbubakarCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
David StojanovicCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.16
Đorđe JovanovićLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.04

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vojvodina 59% · Draw 26% · Radnik Surdulica 16%

Match prediction: Vojvodina – Radnik Surdulica

Predicted score matrix

Radnik Surdulica →

Vojvodina →

0–07.8%

0–16.1%

0–22.7%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.7%

1–111.4%

1–24.7%

1–31.4%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.3%

2–19.7%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.6%

3–15.6%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.2%

4+–13.6%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-111%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,74–0,86

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.00EV+4%

Over 2,548%

@1.76

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vojvodina to win59%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vojvodina to win59%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Aleksa Vukanović to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Aleksa Vukanović to score27%
Uroš Lazić to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Radnik Surdulica16% probability@8.50Paddy PowerEV+33%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@4.75Paddy PowerEV+21%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@4.46PinnacleEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vojvodina	X	2 · Radnik Surdulica
Paddy Power	1.29	EV+ 21% 4.75	EV+ 33% 8.50
Pinnacle	1.38	EV+ 14% 4.46	EV+ 8% 6.92

Odds updated 9 Aug, 04:50

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Vojvodina win since 6 August — the odds have shortened from 1.49 to 1.38 (−7%).

1-7 %

70 %60 %

1.49 → 1.38

X+13 %

26 %16 %

3.96 → 4.46

2+18 %

19 %9 %

5.87 → 6.92

Over 2,5-5 %

57 %47 %

1.86 → 1.76

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 06/08/2026 → 09/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Vojvodina 4Draw 0Radnik Surdulica 1

Goals: 14–4 (⌀ 3,6)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

FK Vojvodina Novi Sad dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.6 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vojvodina

Radnik Surdulica

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vojvodina (7–3)

Radnik Surdulica (1–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vojvodina

Radnik Surdulica

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vojvodina

Radnik Surdulica

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vojvodina	Radnik Surdulica
Points	6	2
xPoints	4.4	3.3
xG per match	1.6	1.5
xGA per match	1.6	0.72
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.56	0.03
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.51	0.15

Playing style	Vojvodina	Radnik Surdulica
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.62	0.64
xT per match	1.1	1.7
xTA per match	0.86	0.61
Won balls, offensive half	32	22
Pressing intensity	0.19	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.43
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.45
Entries into the box per match	14	14
Entries into the box against	11	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.72
Passes per match	306	342
Passes against per match	318	226
Switches of play per match	21.1	21.9
Long balls per match	28	27

Set pieces	Vojvodina	Radnik Surdulica
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.03
Corners per match	4	4
Corners against per match	3.7	5.5
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.17	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.45	0.64

Other	Vojvodina	Radnik Surdulica
Throw-in control	0.58	0.81

The goalkeepers	Dragan Rosić (Vojvodina)	Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica)
Saves	13	9
Save %	81%	90%
xG prevented	70%	68%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vojvodina

Fixtures, form & tips

Radnik Surdulica

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vojvodina vs Radnik Surdulica according to our model?

The model gives Vojvodina a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vojvodina 59%, draw 26%, Radnik Surdulica 16%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.