Košice vs Žilina Prediction: Home win 45% (25 Oct 2026)

Slovak Super League25 October 2026 18:00 CETKošická futbalová aréna, Košice11°17 km/h

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KošicePossession & high press

ŽilinaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Košice (45%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.96 (+9 %)

1 · Košice 45%X 26%30% Žilina · 2

45%

26%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Košice vs Žilina (Slovak Super League, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Košice win 45%, draw 26%, Žilina win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Košice 1.70, Žilina 1.71. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Košice or draw 70%, Žilina or draw 55%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Košice – Žilina

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The clash of styles promises an intriguing duel. Both sides thrive on possession and a high press, setting the stage for an open game. Košice's edge in expected goals and expected goals against indicates a stronger underlying performance, although their head-to-head record against Žilina is evenly split with 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in seven matches, a sample too small to heavily weigh. The expected goals margins suggest a narrow outcome, aligning with a 1-1 or a tight victory for either side.

Between Košice and Žilina, the number that leaps out is the 66% probability for over 2.5 goals. Both teams have an attacking rhythm, evidenced by their consistent scoring run: Košice have found the net in 10 straight league games, while Žilina boast an 11-game streak. The average of 3.9 goals per meeting since 2023 further underscores the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. Despite Žilina's superior points tally, the expected goals are nearly level (1.70 Košice vs 1.71 Žilina), suggesting a closer contest than the standings imply.

From a betting perspective, while Košice edges the model's lean, there's value in backing Žilina at odds of 3.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. The model rates their win chance at 30%, offering a 13% edge. Additionally, the under 3.5 goals market presents a modest opportunity at odds of 1.85 with Betsafe, carrying a 3% edge despite the forecast for goals.

Košice

Form WLWDD

League ranking xG #2xGA #5xT #4xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Dominik KruzliakCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.08
Matej MadlenakLWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.17
Osman KakayRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.17

Žilina

Form WDWDL

League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #6xP/match #7Points #3

Key players

Tobias PaliscakCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Patrik IlkoFxG 0.21 · xT 0.07
Michal FaskoFxG 0.35 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Košice – Žilina

Predicted score matrix

Žilina →

Košice →

0–03.6%

0–15.4%

0–24.8%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.7%

1–05.4%

1–19.9%

1–28.2%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.8%

2–18.2%

2–27.0%

2–34.0%

2–4+2.5%

3–02.7%

3–14.6%

3–23.9%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.4%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.9%

4+–22.5%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.9%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-15%

Expected goals

1,70–1,71

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.95

Over 2,566%

@1.34

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Košice or draw (1X)62%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Košice or draw (1X)62%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Aleksa Maras to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Michal Faško to score25%
Filip Lichý to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.556% probability@1.96PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
X · Draw26% probability@4.14PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
Under 3.556% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Košice	X	2 · Žilina
Betsafe	2.05	3.65	2.85
LeoVegas	2.05	3.70	2.85
Nordicbet	2.05	3.65	2.85
Pinnacle	1.93	EV+ 6% 4.14	EV+ 0% 3.36

Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Košice win since 19 October — the odds have shortened from 2.07 to 1.93 (−7%).

1-7 %

54 %44 %

2.07 → 1.93

X+6 %

28 %18 %

3.92 → 4.14

2+12 %

33 %23 %

3.01 → 3.36

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 19/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Košice 2Draw 3Žilina 2

Goals: 13–14 (⌀ 3,9)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.9 goals per meeting on average.
FC Kosice have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
MSK Zilina have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Košice

Žilina

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Košice (23–20)

Žilina (27–22)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Košice

Žilina

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Košice

Žilina

The teams in numbers

Performance	Košice	Žilina
Points	14	21
xPoints	17.1	14.6
xG per match	2	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.41
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.31

Playing style	Košice	Žilina
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.63	0.53
xT per match	1.2	1.1
xTA per match	0.85	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	33	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.26
Entries into the box per match	17	13
Entries into the box against	9	13
Pass completion %	0.74	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.74
Passes per match	344	385
Passes against per match	351	304
Switches of play per match	15	20.8
Long balls per match	29	32

Set pieces	Košice	Žilina
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	5.9	5.2
Corners against per match	5.6	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.59

Other	Košice	Žilina
Throw-in control	0.73	0.75

The goalkeepers	Matus Kira (Košice)	David Sipos (Žilina)
Saves	24	37
Save %	67%	67%
xG prevented	55%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Košice

Fixtures, form & tips

Žilina

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Košice vs Žilina according to our model?

The model gives Košice a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Košice 45%, draw 26%, Žilina 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Košice vs Žilina?

The model expects 1.70 goals (xG) for Košice and 1.71 for Žilina, 3.40 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Košice or draw (1X) 70%, Žilina or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.