01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Spartak Trnava to win60%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Slovak Super League9°20 km/h
Läs på svenska
SkalicaLow block & direct1–1
Spartak TrnavaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Spartak Trnava (60%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.25 (+17 %)
Skalica vs Spartak Trnava · Slovak Super League
1 · Skalica 16%X 23%60% Spartak Trnava · 2
16%
23%
60%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Skalica vs Spartak Trnava (Slovak Super League, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Skalica win 16%, draw 23%, Spartak Trnava win 60%. Expected goals (xG): Skalica 1.02, Spartak Trnava 2.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Skalica or draw 40%, Spartak Trnava or draw 84%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Skalica – Spartak Trnava
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Sixty percent is the probability of a Spartak Trnava win according to the model, and they carry this advantage into their clash with Skalica. The visitors' superior form and head-to-head dominance, with four victories in their last five meetings, underscore Spartak's position as favorites. The key to this matchup is how Skalica's low-block, direct approach will cope against the possession-heavy game of Spartak Trnava.
Skalica's playing style involves sitting deep and striking on the counter, leveraging quick transitions to catch opponents off guard. However, this could play into Spartak's hands, as they excel in controlling the tempo and dictating play with their possession-based tactics. The hosts' defensive frailties are evident in their xGA of 2.0 per match, which could spell trouble against a side that averages 1.6 expected goals.
Yet, the most likely scorelines—1-1, 1-2, and 0-2—all sit at 10%, hinting at a potentially closer encounter than the league standings suggest. Both teams have a 56% shot at finding the net, reflecting Skalica's potential to exploit any lapses from Spartak, despite their own defensive vulnerabilities. While the head-to-head record is small with only five games, it still leans significantly in favor of the visitors.
The odds lean toward a high-scoring game, with a 58% chance of seeing over 2.5 goals. Considering Spartak's attacking prowess and Skalica's porous defense, this seems a plausible outcome. However, given the tension between their styles, 1-2 or 0-2 are the most anticipated scorelines.
For bettors, Spartak Trnava's 60% win probability reflects both the statistical edge and historical precedent, making them a compelling selection for those seeking a solid angle in this Slovak Super League fixture.
SkalicaForm DLLDL
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #10xP/match #12Points #10
Key players
- Erik DanielRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
- Martin CernekCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.13
- Damian BarisCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.06
Spartak TrnavaForm DWDWL
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #8xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Marek UjlakyCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Erik SaboCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
- Martin MikovicLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Skalica 16% · Draw 23% · Spartak Trnava 60%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Spartak TrnavaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,45fair 5,24+23 %
MissMatchresultat - MFK SkalicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,20fair 20,20-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Skalica – Spartak Trnava
Predicted score matrix
Spartak Trnava →
Skalica →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.1%
0–19.4%
0–29.7%
0–36.5%
0–4+5.2%
1
1–04.6%
1–110.2%
1–210.0%
1–36.7%
1–4+5.3%
2
2–02.5%
2–15.1%
2–25.1%
2–33.4%
2–4+2.7%
3
3–00.9%
3–11.7%
3–21.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.6%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-210%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.1-37%
Expected goals
1,02–2,01
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,542%
@1.85
Over 2,558%
@1.98EV+12%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Spartak Trnava to win60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Hillary Chukwah Gong to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Hillary Chukwah Gong to score26%
- Damián Bariš to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.536% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
- Over 3.536% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
- Over 2.558% probability@1.98PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Skalica | X | 2 · Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.95 | 3.35 | EV+ 10% 1.82 |
| LeoVegas | 3.90 | 3.30 | EV+ 9% 1.80 |
| Nordicbet | 3.95 | 3.35 | EV+ 10% 1.82 |
| Pinnacle | 4.41 | 3.60 | EV+ 9% 1.81 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 2.03 to 1.85 (−9%).
10 %
26 %16 %
4.42 → 4.41
X-5 %
30 %20 %
3.77 → 3.60
2+6 %
60 %50 %
1.71 → 1.81
Over 2,5+13 %
58 %48 %
1.75 → 1.98
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesSkalica 0Draw 1Spartak Trnava 4
Goals: 2–11 (⌀ 2,6)
Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Spartak Trnava dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Skalica
Spartak Trnava
Skalica (12–22)
Spartak Trnava (24–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Skalica
Spartak Trnava
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Skalica
Spartak Trnava
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Skalica | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 21 |
| xPoints | 9.9 | 17.9 |
| xG per match | 0.95 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Skalica | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.87 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.89 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 260 | 362 |
| Passes against per match | 354 | 301 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.2 | 23.8 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Skalica | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| Other | Skalica | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Richard Ludha (Skalica) | Martin Vantruba (Spartak Trnava) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 18 | 39 |
| Save % | 60% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 60% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Skalica vs Spartak Trnava according to our model?
The model gives Spartak Trnava a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Skalica 16%, draw 23%, Spartak Trnava 60%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Skalica vs Spartak Trnava?
The model expects 1.02 goals (xG) for Skalica and 2.01 for Spartak Trnava, 3.04 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Skalica or draw (1X) 40%, Spartak Trnava or draw (X2) 84% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.